Coronavirus Thread

Post by **abscate** » 23 Mar 2021, 17:13

Thanks again lug nut. It’s great to see the consistent format

Post by **matthew1** » 23 Mar 2021, 17:49

abscate wrote: ↑23 Mar 2021, 17:13 It’s great to see the consistent format

I feel microagressed.

Post by **volvolugnut** » 24 Mar 2021, 09:02

volvolugnut wrote: ↑23 Mar 2021, 08:50 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 23, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.363) with 103,452 cases, North Dakota (0.234) with 101,865 cases, Wyoming (0.165) with 55,799 cases, New Hampshire (0.164) with 81,132 cases, and Louisiana (0.147) with 441,771 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. Montana has been in top 5 list for 28 of last 84 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 167 of last 264 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 82 of last 184 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 124 of last 175 days. Louisiana has been in top 5 list for 9 of last 31 days.

Hawaii, Indiana, South Carolina, and US Virgin Islands did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Louisiana, Montana, and Veterans Affairs were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alaska, Guam, Kentucky, North Dakota, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Washington were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00818 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00634. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 30 of the 38 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline. The number of active cases have dropped more than 23% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **abscate** » 24 Mar 2021, 09:02

matthew1 wrote: ↑23 Mar 2021, 17:49
abscate wrote: ↑23 Mar 2021, 17:13 It’s great to see the consistent format
I feel microagressed.

Im sorry, I meant it to be Macro Aggression.

Post by **matthew1** » 24 Mar 2021, 09:41

Good news. All the Bill Gates microchips in the vaccine I got allow Gates' voice to speak to me in my head.

He commanded me to stop changing the forum style every 1-2 years.

He also commanded me to do my laundry yesterday.

Post by **volvolugnut** » 24 Mar 2021, 09:53

volvolugnut wrote: ↑14 Mar 2021, 10:27 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (March 14 to March 20). The New Case Slope graph shows a slight decrease in the past week and continues slightly negative. We have not seen this degree of negative growth in new cases since the start of the Covid-19 battle, with the exception of the last month. Meanwhile, Days to Double graph has started a decreasing trend for 7 day and 14 day lines in the past week. The 21 day line has been flat with no change in the past week.

There is evidence here for caution. New case numbers are trending flat, but new cases are still high in some states. We may have new increases in the future. Several states have recently removed public restrictions on gathering.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 25 Mar 2021, 08:39

volvolugnut wrote: ↑24 Mar 2021, 09:02 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 24, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.243) with 103,666 cases, Wyoming (0.198) with 55,887 cases, North Dakota (0.183) with 102,001 cases, New Hampshire (0.157) with 81,521 cases, and Guam (0.143) with 7789 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. Montana has been in top 5 list for 29 of last 85 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 83 of last 185 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 168 of last 265 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 125 of last 176 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 26 of last 83 days.

Hawaii, South Carolina, and US Virgin Islands did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Wisconsin, and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alabama, Guam, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Veterans Affairs, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Wisconsin, and US Military did not report the previous day. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00945 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00818. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 30 of the 39 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Yesterday's growth rate of 0.00945 is the highest since February 9, 2021. It appears we have a new wave of cases.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline. The number of active cases have dropped more than 23% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. This is very encouraging.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 25 Mar 2021, 09:30

volvolugnut wrote: ↑15 Mar 2021, 12:23 I have created a new spreadsheet looking at the possible immunity of each state from vaccination, previous cases and current cases of COVID-19. The total of these percentages should give a good indication of the relative safety of each state. Information is gathered from Worldometer and New York Times published information. Any errors and misrepresentation are my own. Results will change daily, but I will try to report shortly after each weekend.

State Immunity results for week ending March 21, 2021.
The top 5 states are South Dakota, North Dakota, New Mexico, Rhode Island, New Mexico, and Alaska. The bottom 5 states are Puerto Rico, District of Columbia, Oregon, Georgia, and Hawaii.

The top five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 41.6 %. The bottom five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 27.1 %. The average, unweighted for all states recovered cases plus vaccination is 34.0 %.

I have added a graph showing the progress of the top 5 states, bottom 5 states and US average percent vaccinated and recovered
from the Coronavirus. The top and bottom 5 states change from week to week. Labels for the US average and top 5 states were corrected on March 17, 2021.

volvolugnut
[/quote]

Post by **volvolugnut** » 26 Mar 2021, 08:51

volvolugnut wrote: ↑25 Mar 2021, 08:39 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 25, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.248) with 102,198 cases, Guam (0.227) with 7794 cases, New Hampshire (0.200) with 82,039 cases, Montana (0.183) with 103,830 cases, and Minnesota (0.181) with 510,398 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 169 of last 266 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 27 of last 84 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 126 of last 177 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 30 of last 86 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 172 of last 232 days.

Hawaii, South Carolina, and US Virgin Islands did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Missouri was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arkansas, Guam, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states have been in the early warning list in the last few days. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00956 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00945. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 30 of the 40 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Yesterday's growth rate of 0.00956 is the highest since February 9, 2021. It appears we have a new wave of cases.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline. The number of active cases have dropped more than 23% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. However, yesterday's active case count of 7,018,080 was the first increase since February 20, 2021.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 27 Mar 2021, 11:26

volvolugnut wrote: ↑26 Mar 2021, 08:51 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 26, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.290) with 56,046 cases, North Dakota (0.207) with 102,382 cases, Louisiana (0.172) with 443,069 cases, Montana (0.157) with 103,980 cases, and Minnesota (0.148) with 512,094 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 84 of last 187 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 170 of last 267 days. Louisiana has been in top 5 list for 10 of last 34 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 31 of last 87 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 173 of last 233 days.

Hawaii, South Carolina, and US Virgin Islands did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Kansas and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Nebraska, Nevada, Ohio, and Vermont were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states have been in the early warning list in the last few days. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0110 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00956. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 30 of the 41 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped more than 23% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

volvolugnut

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