Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 27, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.160) with 102,536 cases, Minnesota (0.138) with 513,833 cases, New Hampshire (0.136) with 82,745 cases, Montana (0.120) with 104,097 cases, and South Dakota (0.100) with 117,081 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 171 of last 268 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 174 of last 234 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 171 of last 268 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 32 of last 88 days. South Dakota has been in top 5 list for 10 last 44 days.

Hawaii, South Carolina, and US Virgin Islands did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arizona, District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, and Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states have been in the early warning list in the last few days. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00907 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0110. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 30 of the 43 days had growth rates below 0.008. The last 5 days were above 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped more than 23% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 28, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.107) with 7800 cases, New Hampshire (0.100) with 83,027 cases, Minnesota (0.096) with 515,058 cases, Vermont (0.067) with 18,820 cases, and South Dakota (0.067) with 117,244 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. Guam has been in top 5 list for 28 of last 87 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 172 of last 269 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 175 of last 235 days. Vermont has been in top 5 list for 3 of last 15 days. South Dakota has been in top 5 list for 11 last 45 days.

Hawaii, South Carolina, and US Virgin Islands did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). No areas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states have been in the early warning list in the last few days. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00629 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00907. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 31 of the 44 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped more than 23% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 29, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.301) with 56,190 cases, Louisiana (0.274) with 443,905 cases, Guam (0.129) with 7804 cases, Minnesota (0.122) with 516,608 cases, and New Hampshire (0.113) with 83,340 cases, . All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 85 of last 190 days. Louisiana has been in top 5 list for 11 last 37 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 29 of last 88 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 176 of last 236 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 173 of last 270 days.

Hawaii, South Carolina, and US Virgin Islands did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut, Louisiana, Puerto Rico, and Wyoming were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Tennessee, Washington, and US Military were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states have been in the early warning list in the last few days. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00854 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00629. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 31 of the 45 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped more than 23% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 30, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.262) with 102,880 cases, Montana (0.169) with 104,321 cases, New Hampshire (0.134) with 83,714 cases, Louisiana (0.132) with 444,414 cases, and Wyoming (0.110) with 56,236 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 172 of last 271 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 33 of last 91 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 174 of last 271 days. Louisiana has been in top 5 list for 12 last 38 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 86 of last 191 days.

Hawaii, South Carolina, and US Virgin Islands did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alaska, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states have been in the early warning list in the last few days. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00897 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00854. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 31 of the 46 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped more than 23% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 31, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.257) with 104,552 cases, North Dakota (0.202) with 103,091 cases, Wyoming (0.198) with 56,310 cases, New Hampshire (0.161) with 84,176 cases, and Minnesota (0.128) with 519,529 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. Montana has been in top 5 list for 34 of last 92 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 173 of last 272 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 87 of last 192 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 175 of last 272 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 177 last 238 days.

Hawaii, South Carolina, and US Virgin Islands did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Montana, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arkansas, Colorado, Idaho, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Wyoming were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states have been in the early warning list in the last few days. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00990 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00897. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 31 of the 47 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped more than 23% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 1, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.190) with 104,725 cases, North Dakota (0.182) with 103,299 cases, Wyoming (0.165) with 56,389 cases, Minnesota (0.162) with 521,667 cases, and Tennessee (0.137) with 813,614 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. Montana has been in top 5 list for 35 of last 93 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 174 of last 273 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 88 of last 193 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 178 last 239 days. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 11 of last 36 days.

Hawaii, South Carolina, and US Virgin Islands did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Alaska was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Iowa, Kentucky, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, and Tennessee were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states have been in the early warning list in the last few days. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0111 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00990. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 31 of the 48 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

The growth rate for USA was 0.0111 for yesterday. This the highest since February 5, 2021.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped more than 23% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 2, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.176) with 524,203 cases, New Hampshire (0.143) with 85,010 cases, Montana (0.133) with 104,853 cases, North Dakota (0.132) with 103,460 cases, and Wyoming (0.122) with 56,447 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 179 last 240 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 176 last 274 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 36 of last 94 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 175 of last 274 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 89 of last 194 days.

Hawaii, South Carolina, and US Virgin Islands did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. US Military was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alaska, Arizona, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states have been in the early warning list in the last few days. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0101 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0111. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 31 of the 49 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped more than 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

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I have updated the graphs for the latest week (March 21 to March 27). The New Case Slope graph shows an increase in the past week and is near zero. We have returned to growth in new cases similar to middle of January 2021. Meanwhile, Days to Double graph has started a decreasing trend for 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day lines in the past week. The three lines have now fallen to near levels of a month ago.

There is evidence here for caution. New case numbers are increasing. Several states have recently removed public restrictions on gathering.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 3, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.190) with 105,037 cases, Guam (0.148) with 7816 cases, New Hampshire (0.131) with 85,448 cases, Minnesota (0.128) with 526,267 cases, and Arkansas (0.125) with 330,970 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. Montana has been in top 5 list for 37 of last 95 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 30 last 93 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 177 last 275 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 180 last 241 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 102 of last 226 days.

Hawaii, Maine, South Carolina, and US Virgin Islands did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Kansas was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Guam, Puerto Rico, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states have been in the early warning list in the last few days. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00956 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0101. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 31 of the 50 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped more than 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 4, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: New Hampshire (0.108) with 85,846 cases, Montana (0.105) with 105,142 cases, Wisconsin (0.078) with 579,877 cases, Vermont (0.074) with 20,149 cases, and West Virginia (0.052) with 143,456 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 178 last 276 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 38 of last 96 days. Vermont has been in top 5 list for 4 last 22 days.

Hawaii, Maine, South Carolina, and US Virgin Islands did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). No areas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states have been in the early warning list in the last few days. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00534 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00956. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 32 of the 51 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped more than 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

volvolugnut