Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 5, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Louisiana (0.236) with 446,737 cases, Guam (0.226) with 7823 cases, Wyoming (0.181) with 56,529 cases, Massachusetts (0.087) with 646,220 cases, and Minnesota (0.085) with 527,650 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. Louisiana has been in top 5 list for 13 last 44 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 31 of last 95 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 90 last 197 days. Massachusetts has been in top 5 list for 3 last 23 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 181 last 243 days.

Hawaii, Maine, South Carolina, and US Virgin Islands did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut, Idaho, and Louisiana were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Guam, North Carolina, Washington, Wyoming, and US Military were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00822 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00534. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 32 of the 52 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped more than 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (March 28 to April 3). The New Case Slope graph shows an increase in the past week and is now above zero for the first time since the end of January 2021. We have returned to growth in new cases similar to middle of January 2021. Days to Double graph has continued a decreasing trend for 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day lines in the past week. The three lines have now fallen to near levels of the end of February, but in the opposite direction.

There is evidence here for caution. New case numbers are increasing. Several states have recently removed public restrictions on gathering.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 6, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.259) with 56,619 cases, North Dakota (0.235) with 103,974 cases, Minnesota (0.188) with 530,662 cases, Montana (0.182) with 105,333 cases, and Wisconsin (0.120) with 581,070 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 91 last 198 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 176 last 278 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 182 last 244 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 39 of last 98 days.

Hawaii, Maine, South Carolina, and US Virgin Islands did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Kansas, North Carolina, North Dakota, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Wyoming were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Texas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00907 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00822. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 32 of the 53 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped more than 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 7, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.204) with 56,700 cases, Montana (0.201) with 105,526 cases, North Dakota (0.169) with 104,167 cases, Arkansas (0.148) with 331,505 cases, and New Hampshire (0.128) with 86,935 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 92 last 199 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 40 of last 99 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 177 last 279 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 103 last 230 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 179 last 279 days.

Hawaii, Maine, South Carolina, and US Virgin Islands did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Alaska, Kentucky, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, Rhode Island, and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arkansas, Missouri, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0109 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00907. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 32 of the 54 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped more than 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 8, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.237) with 105,750 cases, Wyoming (0.214) with 56,802 cases, North Dakota (0.168) with 104,364 cases, Minnesota (0.159) with 535,182 cases, and New Hampshire (0.149) with 87,441 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. Montana has been in top 5 list for 41 of last 100 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 93 last 200 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 178 last 280 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 183 last 246 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 180 last 280 days.

Hawaii, Maine, South Carolina, and US Virgin Islands did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Oklahoma was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alabama, Alaska, District of Colombia, Mississippi, Montana, New Mexico, North Carolina, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Veterans Affairs, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0117 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0109. This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 32 of the 55 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

The growth rate for USA was 0.0117 yesterday. This was the highest since February 5, 2021.

Yesterday the active case count increased for the first time since March 25, 2021. At 80,161, it was the highest since February 26, 2021.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped more than 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

I have created a new spreadsheet looking at the possible immunity of each state from vaccination, previous cases and current cases of COVID-19. The total of these percentages should give a good indication of the relative safety of each state. Information is gathered from Worldometer and New York Times published information. Any errors and misrepresentation are my own. Results will change daily, but I will try to report shortly after each weekend.

State Immunity results for week ending April 3, 2021.
The top 5 states are South Dakota, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, New Mexico, and Connecticut. The bottom 5 states are Puerto Rico, Oregon, Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi.

The top five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 49.0 %. The bottom five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 24.2 %. The average, unweighted for all states recovered cases plus vaccination is 41.3 %.

I have added a graph showing the progress of the top 5 states, bottom 5 states and US average percent vaccinated and recovered
from the Coronavirus. The top and bottom 5 states change from week to week. Labels for the US average and top 5 states were corrected on March 17, 2021.

Steady progress continues for top five, bottom five and US state averages. We are still not near 'herd immunity' level by experts definition.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 9, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.223) with 105,974 cases, Minnesota (0.154) with 537,828 cases, New Hampshire (0.150) with 87,978 cases, Wyoming (0.148) with 56,873 cases, and Wisconsin (0.130) with 583,935 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. Montana has been in top 5 list for 42 of last 101 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 184 last 247 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 181 last 281 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 94 last 201 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, South Carolina, and US Virgin Islands did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Puerto Rico and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arizona, Nevada, Oklahoma, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0124 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0117 This is not population or case number weighted. Since February 13, 2021, 32 of the 56 days had growth rates below 0.008. A growth rate of 0.008 implies a doubling of new cases in 86 days. The growth rates have not been this low for this many days since I began recording data.

The growth rate for USA was 0.0124 for yesterday. This was the highest since February 5, 2021.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped more than 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 10, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.180) with 104,701 cases, Montana (0.157) with 106,142 cases, Minnesota (0.130) with 540,277 cases, New Hampshire (0.127) with 88,446 cases, and South Dakota (0.097) with 119,705 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 179 last 282 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 43 of last 102 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 185 last 248 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 182 last 282 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, South Carolina, and US Virgin Islands did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Puerto Rico was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Kansas and Nevada were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00970 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0124 This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped more than 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 11, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: New Hampshire (0.111) with 88,854 cases, Minnesota (0.094) with 542,053 cases, Guam (0.069) with 7837 cases, Vermont (0.068) with 21,202 cases, and Wisconsin (0.064) with 585,308 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 183 last 283 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 186 last 249 days. Wisconsin has been in top 5 list for 4 of last 8 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, South Carolina, and US Virgin Islands did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). No areas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00697 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00970 This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped more than 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (April 4 to April 10). The New Case Slope graph shows a slight increase in the past week and is now two weeks above zero for the first time since the end of January 2021. We have returned to growth in new cases similar to middle of January 2021. Days to Double graph has continued a decreasing trend for 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day lines in the past week. However, rate of decrease has slowed this week. The three lines have now fallen to near levels of the end of February, but in the opposite direction.

There is evidence here for caution. New case numbers are increasing. Several states have recently removed public restrictions on gathering.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut
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