Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 12, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.238) with 56,988 cases, Guam (0.161) with 7842 cases, New Hampshire (0.116) with 89,229 cases, Minnesota (0.107) with 544,046 cases, and Connecticut (0.082) with 324,571 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 95 of last 204 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 184 last 284 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 187 last 250 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, South Carolina, and US Virgin Islands did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut and Idaho were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Guam, New Mexico, Washington, Wyoming, and US Military were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00824 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00697 This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped more than 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

volvolugnut

[MoVolvos]

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[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 13, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.215) with 105,039 cases, Wyoming (0.186) with 57,070 cases, Montana (0.154) with 106,426 cases, Guam (0.152) with 7847 cases, and Arkansas (0.133) with 332,446 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 180 last 285 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 96 of last 205 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 44 last 105 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 104 last 236 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, South Carolina, and US Virgin Islands did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Tennessee was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Florida, Michigan, Mississippi, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, and Wyoming were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0113 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00824. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped more than 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. However, the last several days have not extended this decrease in active case counts.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 14, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.204) with 106,631 cases, North Dakota (0.157) with 105,215 cases, Arkansas (0.129) with 332,666 cases, Wyoming (0.125) with 57,127 cases, and Guam (0.111) with 7851 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Several states have now removed or reduced any restrictions on public activities. Montana has been in top 5 list for 45 last 106 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 181 last 286 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 105 last 237 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 97 of last 206 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 6 last 12 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, South Carolina, and US Virgin Islands did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Alaska, North Carolina, Oklahoma, and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). District of Columbia, Idaho, Mississippi, Montana, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, and Tennessee were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0115 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0113. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped more than 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. However, the last several days have not extended this decrease in active case counts.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 15, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.191) with 106,823 cases, Wyoming (0.166) with 57,203 cases, Arkansas (0.165) with 332,949 cases, New Hampshire (0.159) with 90,525 cases, and Minnesota (0.155) with 549,830 cases. Montana has been in top 5 list for 46 of last 107 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 98 of last 207 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 106 of last 238 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 185 of last 287 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 188 of last 253 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, South Carolina, and US Virgin Islands did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Navajo Nation was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alaska, Arkansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Tennessee were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0108 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0115. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped more than 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers has not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. However, the last several days have not extended this decrease in active case counts.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 16, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.151) with 105,557 cases, Wyoming (0.137) with 57,267 cases, Arkansas (0.125) with 333,186 cases, and Minnesota (0.124) with 552,117 cases, and Montana (0.115) with 106,941 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 182 of last 288 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 99 of last 208 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 107 of last 239 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 189 of last 254 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 47 of last 108 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and South Carolina did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). US Military was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0119 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0108. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped about 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. However, the last couple weeks have not extended this decrease in active case counts.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 17, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.146) with 7865 cases, Montana (0.141) with 107,089 cases, Minnesota (0.120) with 554,536 cases, North Dakota (0.117) with 105,696 cases, and Arkansas (0.114) with 333,407 cases. Guam has been in top 5 list for 7 of last 15 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 48 of last 109 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 190 of last 255 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 183 of last 289 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 108 of last 240 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and South Carolina did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Kansas was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight), but had not reported for several days. No areas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00928 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0119. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped about 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. However, the last couple weeks have not extended this decrease in active case counts.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (April 11 to April 17). The New Case Slope graph shows a slight decrease in the past week and is now three weeks above zero for the first time since the end of January 2021. We have returned to growth in new cases similar to middle of January 2021. Days to Double graph has continued a decreasing trend for 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day lines in the past week. However, rate of decrease has slowed again this week. The three lines have now fallen to near levels of the end of February, but in the opposite direction.

There is evidence here for caution. New case numbers are increasing. Several states have recently removed public restrictions on gathering.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 18, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: New Hampshire (0.094) with 91,586 cases, Minnesota (0.093) with 556,381 cases, Guam (0.085) with 7869 cases, Montana (0.056) with 107,145 cases, and Wisconsin (0.055) with 590,458 cases. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 186 of last 290 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 191 of last 256 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 8 of last 16 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 49 of last 110 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and South Carolina did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). No areas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00628 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00928. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped about 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. However, the last couple weeks have not extended this decrease in active case counts.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 19, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.241) with 57,378 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.197) with 3041 cases, Guam (0.196) with 7879 cases, Minnesota (0.067) with 557,665 cases, and New Hampshire (0.063) with 91,783 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 100 of last 211 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 9 of last 17 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 192 of last 257 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 187 of last 291 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and South Carolina did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut, Wyoming, and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Guam and Idaho were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00753 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00628. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last several weeks. The number of active cases have dropped about 24% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. However, the last couple weeks have not extended this decrease in active case counts.

volvolugnut