Coronavirus Thread

Post by **volvolugnut** » 15 May 2021, 08:23

volvolugnut wrote: ↑14 May 2021, 08:20 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 14, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.198) with 8079 cases, Wyoming (0.161) with 59,079 cases, Minnesota (0.132) with 592,750 cases, North Dakota (0.119) with 108,973 cases, and Montana (0.119) with 110,590 cases. Guam has been in top 5 list for 21 of last 42 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 119 of last 236 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 205 of last 282 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 203 of last 315 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 68 of last 134 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and South Carolina did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Guam and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alabama, Kansas, Puerto Rico, and Washington were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00615 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00625. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 28% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 16 May 2021, 08:52

volvolugnut wrote: ↑15 May 2021, 08:23 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 15, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.124) with 8090 cases, North Dakota (0.106) with 109,057 cases, New Hampshire (0.095) with 97,563 cases, Arkansas (0.095) with 338,687 cases, and Minnesota (0.085) with 593,622 cases. Guam has been in top 5 list for 22 of last 43 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 204 of last 316 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 199 of last 317 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 119 of last 268 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 206 of last 283 days.

There were 17 states not reporting yesterday, making the ratings distorted.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and South Carolina did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). District of Columbia, and Massachusetts were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00403 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00615. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 28% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 16 May 2021, 11:03

volvolugnut wrote: ↑09 May 2021, 09:21 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (May 9 to May 15 ). The New Case Slope graph shows effectively a flat line in the past week and stayed below zero for the fourth week since the end of March 2021. Days to Double graph has continued an increase for 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day lines in the past week. This continues a strong indication of improvement for all three measures. This week the new case count continued to drop below the levels for the middle of March 2021.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

markgeorge5831 · Post by **markgeorge5831** » 16 May 2021, 23:55

I think the end of this virus is global vaccination. No one is safe until every single person is vaccinated, especially in this era of globalization.

Post by **volvolugnut** » 17 May 2021, 11:45

volvolugnut wrote: ↑16 May 2021, 08:52 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 16, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.086) with 594,427 cases, New Hampshire (0.084) with 97,676 cases, North Dakota (0.061) with 109,104 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.048) with 3270 cases, and Arkansas (0.044) with 338,782 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 207 of last 284 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 200 of last 318 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 205 of last 317 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 12 of last 24 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 120 of last 269 days.

There were 16 states not reporting yesterday, making the ratings distorted.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and Nebraska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). No areas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00297 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00403. This is not population or case number weighted. It should be noted the reports on Sundays are almost always the lowest of the week.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 28% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 18 May 2021, 08:10

volvolugnut wrote: ↑17 May 2021, 11:45 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 17, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.274) with 59,222 cases, Guam (0.119) with 8103 cases, Mississippi (0.077) with 315,026 cases. New Hampshire (0.077) with 97,774 cases, and Minnesota (0.068) with 595,016 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 120 of last 239 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 23 of last 45 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 201 of last 319 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 208 of last 285 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and Nebraska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut, Idaho, Kansas, Wyoming, and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Mississippi and New Mexico were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00419 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00297. This is not population or case number weighted. It should be noted the reports on Sundays are almost always the lowest of the week.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 28% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 19 May 2021, 08:18

volvolugnut wrote: ↑18 May 2021, 08:10 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 18, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.286) with 3288 cases, Wyoming (0.215) with 59,319 cases, Arkansas (0.158) with 339,162 cases, North Dakota (0.141) with 109,235 cases, and Mississippi (0.138) with 315,634 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 13 of last 26 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 121 of last 240 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 121 of last 270 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 206 of last 319 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and Nebraska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Mississippi, South Dakota, and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Arkansas, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Jersey, North Carolina, North Dakota, Tennessee, Wyoming, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00463 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00419. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 28% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 20 May 2021, 08:07

volvolugnut wrote: ↑19 May 2021, 08:18 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 19, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.435) with 3308 cases, North Dakota (0.186) with 109,362 cases, and Montana (0.134) with 110,992 cases, Arkansas (0.120) with 339,406 cases, and Wyoming (0.104) with 59,376 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 14 of last 27 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 207 of last 320 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 69 of last 139 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 122 of last 271 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 122 of last 241 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and Nebraska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Alaska, Kansas, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and US Virgin Islands were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alabama, Idaho, Michigan, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Utah, and US Military were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00482 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00463. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 28% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 21 May 2021, 12:52

volvolugnut wrote: ↑20 May 2021, 08:07 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 20, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.408) with 59,590 cases, Oklahoma (0.149) with 451,645 cases, Minnesota (0.125) with 597,052 cases, Arkansas (0.125) with 339,662 cases, and North Dakota (0.113) with 109,440 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 123 of last 242 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 209 of last 288 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 123 of last 272 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 208 of last 321 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and Nebraska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Oklahoma, and Wyoming were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Massachusetts, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Rhode Island were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00512 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00482. This is not population or case number weighted.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 28% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 22 May 2021, 08:21

volvolugnut wrote: ↑21 May 2021, 12:52 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 21, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Oklahoma (0.159) with 451,830 cases, Montana (0.141) with 111,161 cases, Wyoming (0.113) with 59,660 cases, North Dakota (0.101) with 109,509 cases, and Arkansas (0.095) with 339,863 cases. Montana has been in top 5 list for 70 of last 141 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 124 of last 243 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 209 of last 322 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 124 of last 273 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and Nebraska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Rhode Island was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Kansas, Oklahoma, Washington, and US Military were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00484 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00512. This is not population or case number weighted. In the last 21 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.008. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 90 days. The last time we had growth rate this low was in March 2021.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 35% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

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