Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

I have created a new spreadsheet looking at the possible immunity of each state from vaccination, previous cases and current cases of COVID-19. The total of these percentages should give a good indication of the relative safety of each state. Information is gathered from Worldometer and New York Times published information. Any errors and misrepresentation are my own. Results will change daily, but I will try to report shortly after each weekend.

State Immunity results for week ending May 15, 2021.
The top 5 states are Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Vermont, and New Jersey. The bottom 5 states are Mississippi, Louisiana, Wyoming, Alabama, and Idaho.

The top five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 69.25 %. The bottom five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 44.88 %. The average, unweighted for all states recovered cases plus vaccination is 56.23 %.

I have added a graph showing the progress of the top 5 states, bottom 5 states and US average percent vaccinated and recovered
from the Coronavirus. These top and bottom states do not change much from week to week.

Progress continues for top five, bottom five and US state averages. However, most states are slowing in their vaccinations and the gap between the best and the worst 5 states continues getting wider. We are still not near 'herd immunity' level by experts definition.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 22, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.104) with 109,577 cases, Arkansas (0.084) with 340,040 cases, Minnesota (0.082) with 598,327 cases, New Hampshire (0.073) with 98,244 cases, and Wisconsin (0.043) with 608,285 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 210 of last 323 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 125 of last 274 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 210 of last 290 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 202 of last 324 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and Nebraska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). No areas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00335 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00484. This is not population or case number weighted. For the last 22 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.008. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 90 days. The last time we had growth rate this low was in March 2021.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 35% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

I have created a new spreadsheet looking at the possible immunity of each state from vaccination, previous cases and current cases of COVID-19. The total of these percentages should give a good indication of the relative safety of each state. Information is gathered from Worldometer and New York Times published information. Any errors and misrepresentation are my own. Results will change daily, but I will try to report shortly after each weekend.

State Immunity results for week ending May 22, 2021.
The top 5 states are Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Utah, New Hampshire, and Connecticut. The bottom 5 states are Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Wyoming, and Idaho.

The top five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 72.26 %. The bottom five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 45.75 %. The average, unweighted for all states recovered cases plus vaccination is 58.08 %.

I have added a graph showing the progress of the top 5 states, bottom 5 states and US average percent vaccinated and recovered
from the Coronavirus. These top and bottom states do not change much from week to week.

Progress continues for top five, bottom five and US state averages. However, most states are slowing in their vaccinations and the gap between the best and the worst 5 states continues getting wider. In the last week, the top, bottom and average lines appear to have increased in slope. We are still not near 'herd immunity' level by experts definition.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (May 16 to May 22 ). The New Case Slope graph shows effectively a flat line in the past two weeks and stayed below zero for the fifth week since the end of March 2021. Days to Double graph has continued an increase for 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day lines in the past week. This continues a strong indication of improvement for all three measures. This week the new case count continued to drop below the levels for the middle of March 2021.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 23, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.390) with 3353 cases, Minnesota (0.066) with 598,766 cases, New Hampshire (0.062) with 98,303 cases, Arkansas (0.046) with 340,137 cases, and North Dakota (0.041) with 109,603 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 15 of last 31 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 211 of last 291 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 203 of last 325 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 126 of last 275 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 211 of last 324 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and Nebraska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. District of Columbia and US Virgin Islands were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Puerto Rico was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00233 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00335. This is not population or case number weighted. For the last 23 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.008. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 90 days. The last time we had growth rate this low was in March 2021.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 35% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 24, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.390) with 3383 cases, Wyoming (0.258) with 29,797 cases, Mississippi (0.134) with 316,754 cases, New Hampshire (0.090) with 98,349 cases, and Minnesota (0.075) with 599,234 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 16 of last 32 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 125 of last 246 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 204 of last 326 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 212 of last 292 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and Nebraska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut, Idaho, Mississippi, US Virgin Islands, and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Kansas, Puerto Rico, and Wyoming were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00343 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00233. This is not population or case number weighted. For the last 24 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.008. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 90 days. The last time we had growth rate this low was in March 2021.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 35% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 25, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: New Hampshire (0.192) with 98,428 cases, Arkansas (0.169) with 340,515 cases, Montana (0.166) with 111,377 cases, Wyoming (0.159) with 59,870 cases, and South Dakota (0.155) with 124,023 cases. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 205 of last 327 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 127 of last 277 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 71 of last 145 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 126 of last 247 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and Nebraska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Alaska. Arkansas, Montana, South Dakota, and Tennessee were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alabama, Colorado, Guam, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Virginia, Washington, and West Virginia were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00395 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00343. This is not population or case number weighted. For the last 25 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.008. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 90 days. The last time we had growth rate this low was in March 2021.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 35% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 26, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.197) with 59,961 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.178) with 3399 cases, North Dakota (0.126) with 109,378 cases, South Dakota (0.107) with 124,071 cases, and New Hampshire (0.100) with 98,470 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 127 of last 248 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 17 of last 34 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 212 of last 294 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 206 of last 328 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and Nebraska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Alaska. Kansas, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Washington, and US Military were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alabama, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, South Dakota, West Virginia, and Wyoming were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00410 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00395. This is not population or case number weighted. For the last 26 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.008. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 90 days. The last time we had growth rate this low was in March 2021.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 35% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 27, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: New Hampshire (0.344) with 98,613 cases, Guam (0.229) with 8154 cases, Montana (0.220) with 111,623 cases, Wyoming (0.164) with 60,048 cases, and Oklahoma (0.118) with 452,633 cases. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 207 of last 329 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 24 of last 55 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 72 of last 147 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 128 of last 249 days.

Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and Nebraska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Guam, Montana, and New Hampshire were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alabama, Delaware, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Washington, and West Virginia were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00428 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00410. This is not population or case number weighted. For the last 27 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.008. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 90 days. The last time we had growth rate this low was in March 2021.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 35% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[peterr991]

are you for the vaccine or against?