Coronavirus Thread

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More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 28, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.189) with 60,144 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.163) with 3442 cases, South Dakota (0.137) with 124,162 cases, Oklahoma (0.122) with 452,777 cases, and Montana (0.116) with 111,718 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 129 of last 250 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 18 of last 36 days. South Dakota has been in top 5 list for 3 of last 3 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 4 of last 9 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 73 of last 148 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and Nebraska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Delaware, District of Columbia, Kansas, Puerto Rico, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00410 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00428. This is not population or case number weighted. For the last 28 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.008. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 90 days. The last time we had growth rate this low was in March 2021.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 37% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 29, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: New Hampshire (0.102) with 98,699 cases, North Dakota (0.093) with 109,915 cases, Montana (0.079) with 111,785 cases, Arkansas (0.077) with 341,290 cases, and Minnesota (0.071) with 601,105 cases. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 208 of last 330 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 213 of last 297 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 74 of last 149 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 128 of last 281 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 213 of last 297 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and Nebraska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Delaware was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00224 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00410. This is not population or case number weighted. For the last 29 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.008. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 90 days. The last time we had growth rate this low was in March 2021.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 37% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

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[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

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I have updated the graphs for the latest week (May 23 to May 29 ). The New Case Slope graph shows effectively a flat line in the past two weeks and stayed below zero for the sixth week since the end of March 2021. Days to Double graph has continued an increase for 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day lines in the past week. This continues a strong indication of improvement for all three measures. This week the new case count continued to drop below the levels for the middle of March 2021.

Stay safe out there.

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[volvolugnut]

I have created a new spreadsheet looking at the possible immunity of each state from vaccination, previous cases and current cases of COVID-19. The total of these percentages should give a good indication of the relative safety of each state. Information is gathered from Worldometer and New York Times published information. Any errors and misrepresentation are my own. Results will change daily, but I will try to report shortly after each weekend.

State Immunity results for week ending May 29, 2021.
The top 5 states are Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Utah, Connecticut, and New Jersey. The bottom 5 states are Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, Wyoming, and Idaho.

The top five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 73.73 %. The bottom five states have average positive test cases plus vaccination of 47.80 %. The average, unweighted for all states recovered cases plus vaccination is 59.22 %.

I have added a graph showing the progress of the top 5 states, bottom 5 states and US average percent vaccinated and recovered
from the Coronavirus. These top and bottom states do not change much from week to week.

Progress continues for top five, bottom five and US state averages. This last week shows some slight changes. The best states continue to improve, but the progress is slowed (slope is slightly less). The bottom states has the opposite trend. We are still not near 'herd immunity' level by experts definition.

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[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 30, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.066) with 601,384 cases, New Hampshire (0.054) with 98,726 cases, North Dakota (0.042) with 109,935 cases, Arizona (0.037) with 881,089 cases, and Montana (0.031) with 111,809 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 214 of last 298 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 209 of last 331 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 214 of last 298 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 75 of last 150 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and Nebraska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

Yesterday new cases were 7750. This is the lowest since March 2020. Note that this low was on a Sunday when 27 states or areas did not report.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). No areas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00138 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00224. This is not population or case number weighted. This is the lowest growth rate ever recorded. This second lowest was 0.00297 on May 16, 2021.

For the last 30 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.008. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 90 days. The last time we had growth rate this low was in March 2021.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 37% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 31, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Mississippi (0.095) with 317,713 cases, South Dakota (0.074) with 124,191 cases, Montana (0.026) with 111,829 cases, Utah (0.024) with 406,170 cases, and North Dakota (0.022) with 109,944 cases. Mississippi has been in top 5 list for 5 of last 22 days. South Dakota has been in top 5 list for 4 of last 6 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 76 of last 151 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 215 of last 299 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, and Nebraska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

Yesterday new cases were 5235. This is the lowest since March 2020. Note that this low was on a holiday when 28 states or areas did not report.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Mississippi was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). No areas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many states now do not report every day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.000936 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00138. This is not population or case number weighted. This is the lowest growth rate ever recorded. This second lowest was 0.00138 on May 30, 2021.

For the last 31 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.008. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 90 days. The last time we had growth rate this low was in March 2021.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 37% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 1, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.309) with 8173 cases, Wyoming (0.214) with 60,364 cases, West Virginia (0.114) with 161,858 cases, New Hampshire (0.086) with 98,767 cases, and North Dakota (0.046) with 109,962 cases. Guam has been in top 5 list for 25 of last 60 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 130 of last 254 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 210 of last 333 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 216 of last 300 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut, Guam, Idaho, New Mexico, West Virginia, and Wyoming were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alaska, California, Florida, and Nevada were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. All of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00230 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.000936. This is not population or case number weighted.

For the last 18 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.006. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 120 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 38% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 2, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.275) with 8187 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.225) with 3539 cases, Montana (0.216) with 112,002 cases, North Dakota (0.214) with 110,045 cases, and Arkansas (0.146) with 341,692 cases. Guam has been in top 5 list for 26 of last 61 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 19 of last 41 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 77 of last 153 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 217 of last 301 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 129 of last 285 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00304 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.000230. This is not population or case number weighted.

For the last 19 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.006. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 120 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 38% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 3, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.215) with 60,543 cases, Montana (0.182) with 112,129 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.174) with 3560 cases, North Dakota (0.135 with 110,098 cases, and New Hampshire (0.115) with 98,840 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 131 of last 256 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 78 of last 154 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 20 of last 42 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 218 of last 302 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 211 of last 335 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00321 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.000304. This is not population or case number weighted.

For the last 20 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.006. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 120 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 38% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 4, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.191) with 112,260 cases, Guam (0.175) with 8204 cases, Oklahoma (0.161) with 453,552 cases, Arkansas (0.146) with 342,142 cases, and North Dakota (0.131 with 110,151 cases. Montana has been in top 5 list for 79 of last 155 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 27 of last 63 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 130 of last 287 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 219 of last 303 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana, Maine, and Nebraska did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00306 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.000321. This is not population or case number weighted.

For the last 21 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.006. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 120 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 38% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

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