Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 5, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.127) with 602,428 cases, Arkansas (0.112) with 342,345 cases, North Dakota (0.066) with 110,178 cases, Utah (0.057) with 407,419 cases, and Massachusetts (0.046) with 707,940 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 215 of last 304 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 131 of last 288 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 220 of last 304 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00210 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.000306. This is not population or case number weighted.

For the last 22 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.006. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 120 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 38% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (May 30 to June 5 ). The New Case Slope graph shows a slight increase in the past three weeks and stayed below zero for the seventh week since the end of March 2021. Days to Double graph has continued an increase for 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day lines in the past week. This continues a strong indication of improvement for all three measures. This week the new case count continued to drop below the levels for the middle of March 2021. New case counts continue to drop, but the rate of change is slightly slowing.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 6, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.123) with 602,686 cases, North Dakota (0.056) with 110,199 cases, Arkansas (0.048) with 342,433 cases, Utah (0.041) with 407,642 cases, and Arizona (0.034) with 883,821 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 216 of last 305 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 221 of last 305 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 132 of last 289 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00117 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00210. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 33 states did not report.

For the last 23 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.006. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 120 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 38% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 7, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.482) with 60,773 cases, Montana (0.184) with 112,381 cases, New Hampshire (0.159) with 98,941 cases, Mississippi (0.120) with 318,521 cases, and Minnesota (0.099) with 602,880 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 132 of last 260 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 80 of last 158 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 212 of last 339 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 217 of last 306 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00224 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00117. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, only 3 states did not report new cases.

For the last 24 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.006. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 120 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 38% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 8, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.206) with 112,518 cases, Wyoming (0.154) with 60,844 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.153) with 3608 cases, Arkansas (0.139) with 342,726 cases, and South Dakota (0.120) with 124,302 cases. Montana has been in top 5 list for 81 of last 159 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 133 of last 261 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 132 of last 291 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00249 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00224. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, only 6 states did not report new cases.

For the last 11 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.004. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 175 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 40% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 9, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.366) with 60,941 cases, Guam (0.191) with 8224 cases, New Hampshire (0.161) with 98,996 cases, North Dakota (0.140) with 110,298 cases, and Oklahoma (0.132) with 454,094 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 134 of last 262 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 28 of last 68 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 213 of last 341 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 222 of last 308 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Idaho, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00263 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00249. This is not population or case number weighted.

For the last 12 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.004. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 175 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 40% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[RickHaleParker]

Headline in local newspaper: County hospitals beds free of COVID-19 cases.

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 10, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.220) with 61,012 cases, Arkansas (0.168) with 343,216 cases, North Dakota (0.165) with 110,351 cases, Montana (0.157) with 112,690 cases, and New Hampshire (0.134) with 99,040 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 135 of last 263 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 133 of last 292 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 223 of last 309 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 82 of last 161 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 214 of last 342 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00276 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00263. This is not population or case number weighted.

For the last 13 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.004. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 175 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 40% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 11, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.260) with 61,114 cases, Arkansas (0.215) with 343,609 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.190) with 3672 cases, Oklahoma (0.190) with 454,394 cases, and Montana (0.110) with 112,761 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 136 of last 264 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 134 of last 293 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 7 of last 23 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 83 of last 162 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00300 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00276. This is not population or case number weighted.

For the last 14 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.004. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 175 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 40% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 12, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.129) with 343,873 cases, North Dakota (0.114) with 110,426 cases, Minnesota (0.094) with 603,614 cases, Utah (0.067) with 409,364 cases, and Massachusetts (0.042) with 708,836 cases. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 135 of last 294 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 224 of last 311 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 218 of last 311 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00176 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00300. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 29 states did not report.

For the last 15 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.004. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 175 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 40% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020.

Volvolugnut