Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (June 20 to June 26 ). The New Case Slope graph shows an increase in the past week and stayed slightly below zero for the tenth week since the end of March 2021. Days to Double graph had an increase for 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day lines in the past week. This week the new case count is only slightly lower than last week.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 29, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.285) with 113,690 cases, Wyoming (0.211) with 62,195 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.205) with 3858 cases, New Hampshire (0.168) with 99,481 cases, and Arkansas (0.148) with 348,699 cases. Montana has been in top 5 list for 93 of last 181 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 146 of last 282 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 31 of last 68 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 217 of last 361 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 145 of last 311 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00232 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00217. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 5 states did not report new cases.

For 17 of the last 18 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 230 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 44% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. There have been 29 consecutive days of dropping active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 30, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.457) with 3879 cases, Wyoming (0.206) with 62,290 cases, North Dakota (0.203) with 110,707 cases, Arkansas (0.200) with 349,385 cases, and Mississippi (0.171) with 321,764 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 32 of last 69 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 147 of last 283 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 279 of last 329 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 146 of last 312 days. Mississippi has been in top 5 list for 4 of last 7 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00290 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00232. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 1 state did not report new cases.

For 18 of the last 19 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 230 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 44% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. There have been 30 consecutive days of dropping active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 1, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.276) with 3895 cases, Oklahoma (0.190) with 458,180 cases, Arkansas (0.183) with 350,085 cases, South Dakota (0.169) with 124,561 cases, and Montana (0.161) with 113,821 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 33 of last 70 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 16 of last 43 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 147 of last 313 days. South Dakota has been in top 5 list for 5 of last 19 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 94 of last 183 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00346 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00290. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 5 state did not report new cases.

For 18 of the last 20 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 230 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started. Yesterday's growth rate was the highest since May 28 when it was 0.00410. Yesterday's new cases were 16,949, the highest since June 3 at 17,821.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 44% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. There have been 31 consecutive days of dropping active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 2, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.176) with 62,445 cases, New Hampshire (0.166) with 99,555 cases, Oklahoma (0.162) with 458,483 cases, Minnesota (0.144) with 605,549 cases, and South Dakota (0.135) with 124,582 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 148 of last 285 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 218 of last 364 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 17 of last 44 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 225 of last 331 days. South Dakota has been in top 5 list for 6 of last 20 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00376 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00346. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 1 state did not report new cases.

For 18 of the last 21 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 230 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started. Yesterday's growth rate was the highest since May 28 when it was 0.00410. Yesterday's new cases were 18,399, the highest since May 28 at 22,813.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 45% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. There have been 32 consecutive days of dropping active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 3, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.222) with 3916 cases, Minnesota (0.150) with 605,660 cases, Arizona (0.050) with 896,518 cases, North Dakota (0.033) with 110,734 cases, and Delaware (0.032) with 109,846 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 34 of last 72 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 226 of last 332 days. Arizona has been in top 5 list for 5 of last 28 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 280 of last 332 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00163 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00376. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 37 states did not report new cases.

For 19 of the last 22 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 230 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 45% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. There have been 33 consecutive days of dropping active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 4, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Delaware (0.037) with 109,875 cases, Arizona (0.034) with 896,960 cases, Missouri (0.023) with 622,626 cases, North Dakota (0.015) with 110,736 cases, and Pennsylvania (0.008) with 1,217,434 cases. Arizona has been in top 5 list for 6 of last 29 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 281 of last 333 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.000854 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00163. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 41 states did not report new cases. Yesterday's growth rate was the lowest ever recorded. The previous low was .000869 on June 20, 2021.

For 20 of the last 23 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 230 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 45% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. There have been 34 consecutive days of dropping active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (June 27 to July 3). The New Case Slope graph shows an increase in the past week and stayed slightly below zero for the eleventh week since the end of March 2021. Days to Double graph had an decrease for 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day lines in the past week. This week the new case count has increased from last week. This is the first change in direction (downward) for 7 day, 14 day , and 21 day lines since April.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 5, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.181) with 62,543 cases, Oklahoma (0.124) with 459,205 cases, New Hampshire (0.105) with 99,610 cases, Arizona (0.093) with 351,825 cases, and North Dakota (0.073) with 110,745 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 149 of last 288 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 18 of last 47 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 219 of last 367 days. Arizona has been in top 5 list for 148 of last 317 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 282 of last 334 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00150 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.000854. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 23 states did not report new cases.

For 21 of the last 24 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 230 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 45% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. There have been 35 consecutive days of dropping active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 6, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.366) with 3942 cases, Guam (0.256) with 8394 cases, Mississippi (0.228) with 322,835 cases, Montana (0.202) with 113,951 cases, and Wyoming (0.193) with 62,642 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 35 of last 75 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 36 of last 95 days. Mississippi has been in top 5 list for 5 of last 13 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 95 of last 188 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 150 of last 289 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00239 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00150. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 9 states did not report new cases.

For 22 of the last 25 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 230 days. We have not had growth rates this low since the pandemic started.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 45% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. There have been 36 consecutive days of dropping active case numbers.

volvolugnut