Coronavirus Thread

Post by **volvolugnut** » 16 Jul 2021, 12:31

volvolugnut wrote: ↑15 Jul 2021, 18:39 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 15, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.200) with 607,278 cases, Massachusetts (0.198) with 711,943 cases, Wyoming (0.193) with 63,455 cases, Oklahoma (0.190) with 463,857 cases, and North Dakota (0.169) with 110,958 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 232 of last 344 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 153 of last 298 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 23 of last 57 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 287 of last 344 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00748 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00726 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 6 state did not report new cases. Yesterday's growth rate was the highest since April 30, 2021 when it was 0.00879.

For 24 of the last 34 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 230 days. The growth rate has been above 0.003 for the last 5 days.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 45% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. There have been 38 of last 45 days of dropping active case numbers. Yesterday had an increase in active cases.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 17 Jul 2021, 18:36

volvolugnut wrote: ↑16 Jul 2021, 12:31 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 16, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.331) with 4160 cases, Massachusetts (0.244) with 712,272 cases, Minnesota (0.212) with 607,524 cases, Oklahoma (0.183) with 464,607 cases, and Montana (0.178) with 114,663 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 41 of last 85 days. Massachusetts has been in top 5 list for 3 of last 4 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 233 of last 345 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 24 of last 58 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 99 of last 198 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00824 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00748 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 3 state did not report new cases.

For 24 of the last 35 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 230 days. The growth rate has been above 0.003 for the last 6 days.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 45% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. There have been 38 of last 46 days of dropping active case numbers. Yesterday had an increase in active cases.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 18 Jul 2021, 11:45

volvolugnut wrote: ↑17 Jul 2021, 18:36 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 17, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Oklahoma (0.179) with 465,398 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.166) with 4186 cases, North Dakota (0.132) with 111,000 cases, Delaware (0.090) with 110,339 cases, and Arizona (0.066) with 907,268 cases. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 25 of last 59 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 42 of last 86 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 288 of last 346 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00487 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00824 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 38 state did not report new cases.

For 24 of the last 36 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 230 days. The growth rate has been above 0.003 for the last 8 days.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 45% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. There have been 38 of last 47 days of dropping active case numbers. Yesterday had an increase in active cases.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 18 Jul 2021, 12:41

volvolugnut wrote: ↑11 Jul 2021, 13:26 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (July 11 to July 17). The New Case Slope graph shows an increase in the past week and the sharp rise above zero. Days to Double graph had an decrease for 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day lines in the past week. The Days to Double for the 7 day count is now at 124 days (similar to the middle of April 2021). This week the new case count has nearly doubled from last week. This is the third week of increase in the new case count since April.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 19 Jul 2021, 14:03

volvolugnut wrote: ↑18 Jul 2021, 11:45 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 18, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Delaware (0.059) with 110,387 cases, Arizona (0.055) with 908,248 cases, North Dakota (0.141) with 111,008 cases, Ohio (0.037) with 1,117,109 cases, and New Jersey (0.030) with 1,028,931 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 289 of last 347 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00192 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00487 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 42 states did not report new cases.

For 25 of the last 37 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 45% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. There have been 38 of last 48 days of dropping active case numbers. Yesterday had an increase in active cases.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 20 Jul 2021, 18:43

volvolugnut wrote: ↑19 Jul 2021, 14:03 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 19, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.295) with 63,709 cases, Minnesota (0.190) with 607,784 cases, Massachusetts (0.189) with 713,037 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.180) with 4215 cases, and Connecticut (0.176) with 351,084 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 154 of last 302 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 234 of last 348 days. Massachusetts has been in top 5 list for 4 of last 7 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 42 of last 88 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00665 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00192 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 3 states did not report new cases.

For 25 of the last 38 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 45% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. There have been 38 of last 49 days of dropping active case numbers. Yesterday had an increase in active cases.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 21 Jul 2021, 07:36

volvolugnut wrote: ↑20 Jul 2021, 18:43 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 20, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.412) with 608,405 cases, Massachusetts (0.335) with 713,489 cases, Montana (0.319) with 114,899 cases, North Dakota (0.264) with 111,067 cases, and New Hampshire (0.263) with 100,025 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 235 of last 349 days. Massachusetts has been in top 5 list for 5 of last 8 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 100 of last 202 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 290 of last 349 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 221 of last 382 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00885 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00665 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 5 states did not report new cases.

Yesterday's growth rate (0.00885) was the highest since April 23, 2021 when it was 0.00971.

For 14 of the last 39 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a notable decline over the last couple months. The number of active cases have dropped about 45% since the peak. This decrease in active case numbers had not been seen since I started recording information in February 2020. There have been 12 of last 50 days with increasing active case numbers. Yesterday had an increase in active cases.

Yesterday, the active case number increase (44,232) was the highest since May 7, 2021 when it was 49,491.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 22 Jul 2021, 07:26

volvolugnut wrote: ↑21 Jul 2021, 07:36 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 21, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Massachusetts (0.389) with 714,014 cases, Wyoming (0.240) with 63,988 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.224) with 4286 cases, Oklahoma (0.219) with 468,401 cases, and Tennessee (0.182) with 877,850 cases. Massachusetts has been in top 5 list for 6 of last 9 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 155 of last 304 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 43 of last 90 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 26 of last 63 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0113 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00885 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 2 states did not report new cases.

Yesterday's growth rate (0.0113) was the highest since April 16, 2021 when it was 0.00119.

For 15 of the last 40 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in over 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last couple weeks. There have been 12 of last 50 days with increasing active case numbers. Yesterday had an increase in active cases.

Yesterday, the active case number increase (56,525) was the highest since April 30, 2021 when it was 59,906.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 23 Jul 2021, 07:31

volvolugnut wrote: ↑22 Jul 2021, 07:26 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 22, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Massachusetts (0.402) with 714,556 cases, Oklahoma (0.273) with 469,982 cases, Guam (0.255) with 8500 cases, Montana (0.234) with 115,143 cases, and Wyoming (0.202) with 64,141 cases. Massachusetts has been in top 5 list for 7 of last 10 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 27 of last 64 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 36 of last 111 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 101 of last 204 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 156 of last 305 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0122 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0113 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 7 states did not report new cases.

Yesterday's growth rate (0.0122) was the highest since April 9, 2021 when it was 0.0124.

For 16 of the last 41 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last couple weeks. There have been 14 of last 52 days with increasing active case numbers. Yesterday had an increase in active cases.

Yesterday, the active case number increase (61,651) was the highest since April 23, 2021 when it was 66,515.

If you have been living under your Volvo and had not heard, the new Delta variation is sweeping the country. New cases are up sharply. Get vaccinated now if you haven't already.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 24 Jul 2021, 13:38

volvolugnut wrote: ↑23 Jul 2021, 07:31 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 23, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Massachusetts (0.463) with 715,180 cases, Minnesota (0.193) with 609,387 cases, North Dakota (0.192) with 111,170 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.186) with 4336 cases, and Oklahoma (0.179) with 471,176 cases. Massachusetts has been in top 5 list for 8 of last 11 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 236 of last 352 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 291 of last 352 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 44 of last 92 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 28 of last 65 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0132 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0122 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 5 states did not report new cases.

Yesterday's growth rate (0.0132) was the highest since January 30, 2021 when it was 0.0143.

For 17 of the last 42 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last couple weeks. There have been 15 of last 53 days with increasing active case numbers. Yesterday had an increase in active cases.

Yesterday, the active case number increase (67,485) was the highest since April 16, 2021 when it was 81,773.

If you have been living under your Volvo and had not heard, the new Delta variation is sweeping the country. New cases are up sharply. Get vaccinated now if you haven't already.

volvolugnut

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