Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 24, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.206) with 4375 cases, North Dakota (0.187) with 111,215 cases, Oklahoma (0.181) with 472,498 cases, Arkansas (0.145) with 374,328 cases, and Delaware (0.191) with 110,729 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 45 of last 93 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 292 of last 353 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 29 of last 66 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 153 of last 336 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00713 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0132 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 38 states did not report new cases.

For 18 of the last 43 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last couple weeks. There have been 15 of last 54 days with increasing active case numbers.

If you have been living under your Volvo and had not heard, the new Delta variation is sweeping the country. New cases are up sharply. Get vaccinated now if you haven't already.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (July 18 to July 24). The New Case Slope graph shows an increase in the past week and continues the sharp rise above zero. Days to Double graph had an decrease for 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day lines in the past week. The Days to Double for the 7 day count is now at 79 days (similar to the middle of April 2021). This week the new case count has nearly doubled again from the previous week. This is the fourth week of increase in the new case count since April.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 25, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.068) with 375,350 cases, Arizona (0.066) with 917,168 cases, Delaware (0.063) with 110,797 cases, North Dakota (0.048) with 111,227 cases, and Ohio (0.044) with 1,122,104 cases. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 154 of last 337 days. Delaware has been in top 5 list for 4 of last 9 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 293 of last 354 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00274 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00713 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 42 states did not report new cases.

For 18 of the last 44 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last couple weeks. There have been 16 of last 55 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 26, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Massachusetts (0.315) with 716,452 cases, Wyoming (0.249) with 64,451 cases, Montana (0.198) with 115,406 cases, Minnesota (0.194) with 609,810 cases, and Connecticut (0.175) with 352,626 cases. Massachusetts has been in top 5 list for 9 of last 14 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 157 of last 309 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 102 of last 208 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 237 of last 355 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00708 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00274 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 7 states did not report new cases.

For 19 of the last 45 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last couple weeks. There have been 17 of last 56 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 27, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Massachusetts (0.617) with 717,284 cases, Minnesota (0.437) with 610,839 cases, Montana (0.316) with 115,665 cases, New Hampshire (0.308) with 100,398 cases, and North Dakota (0.250) with 111,331 cases. Massachusetts has been in top 5 list for 10 of last 15 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 238 of last 356 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 103 of last 209 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 222 of last 389 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 294 of last 356 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0120 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00707 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 8 states did not report new cases.

For 20 of the last 46 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last couple weeks. There have been 18 of last 57 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 28, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Massachusetts (0.490) with 717,944 cases, North Dakota (0.274) with 111,411 cases, US Virgin Island (0.266) with 4497 cases, Montana (0.237) with 115,888 cases, and Minnesota (0.236) with 611,458 cases. Massachusetts has been in top 5 list for 11 of last 16 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 295 of last 357 days. US Virgin Island has been in top 5 list for 46 of last 97 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 104 of last 210 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 239 of last 357 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0164 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0120 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 2 states did not report new cases.

For 21 of the last 47 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last couple weeks. There have been 19 of last 58 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 29, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Massachusetts (0.671) with 718,849 cases, Montana (0.244) with 116,143 cases, Wyoming (0.213) with 64,955 cases, North Dakota (0.212) with 111,486 cases, and Oklahoma (0.185) with 478,858 cases. Massachusetts has been in top 5 list for 12 of last 17 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 105 of last 211 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 158 of last 312 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 296 of last 358 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 30 of last 71 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0176 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0164 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 6 states did not report new cases. The growth rate for yesterday was the highest since January 23, 2021 when it was 0.0177.

For 22 of the last 48 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last couple weeks. There have been 20 of last 59 days with increasing active case numbers. The new cases for yesterday was the highest since February 12, 2021 when it was 100,288.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 30, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.505) with 4606 cases, Massachusetts (0.415) with 719,780 cases, North Dakota (0.209) with 111,570 cases, Minnesota (0.208) with 612,701 cases, and Guam (0.203) with 8541 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 47 of last 99 days. Massachusetts has been in top 5 list for 13 of last 18 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 297 of last 359 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 240 of last 359 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 39 of last 119 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0187 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0176 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 4 states did not report new cases.

For 23 of the last 49 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last couple weeks. There have been 21 of last 60 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 31, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Oklahoma (0.202) with 482,963 cases, North Dakota (0.172) with 111,644 cases, Delaware (0.100) with 111,407 cases, Ohio (0.093) with 1,129,277 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.092) with 4629 cases. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 31 of last 73 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 298 of last 360 days. Delaware has been in top 5 list for 5 of last 15 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 48 of last 101 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00960 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0187 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 38 states did not report new cases.

For 24 of the last 50 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last couple weeks. There have been 22 of last 61 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for August 1, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Delaware (0.107) with 111,563 cases, Arkansas (0.105) with 388,436 cases, Arizona (0.075) with 929,541 cases, North Dakota (0.065) with 111,674 cases, and Pennsylvania (0.062) with 1,230,857 cases. Delaware has been in top 5 list for 6 of last 16 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 155 of last 344 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 299 of last 361 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Nebraska, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00399 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00960. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 42 states did not report new cases.

For 25 of the last 51 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last couple weeks. There have been 23 of last 62 days with increasing active case numbers.

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