Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for August 17, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: South Dakota (0.344) with 127,320 cases, Minnesota (0.340) with 629,354 cases, North Dakota (0.272) with 113,673 cases, Montana (0.226) with 120,946 cases, and Wyoming (0.198) with 69,356 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 249 of last 317 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 309 of last 377 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 111 of last 230 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 167 of last 331 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0200 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0155. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 5 states did not report new cases.

For 41 of the last 67 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 39 of last 78 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for August 18, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.285) with 5413 cases, South Dakota (0.229) with 127,696 cases, North Dakota (0.229) with 113,925 cases, Wyoming (0.220) with 69,844 cases, and Montana (0.145) with 121,382 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 56 of last 118 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 310 of last 378 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 168 of last 332 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 112 of last 231 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0227 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0200. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, no states did not report new cases.

The number of new cases yesterday was 158,127. This was the highest since January 29, 2021 when it was 169,033.

The number of new deaths yesterday was 1,055. This was the highest since March 31, 2021 when it was 1,115.

For 42 of the last 68 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 40 of last 79 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[matthew1]

I'm pretty sad... or maybe the better term is "pissed off" -- sorry -- that this will be with humanity for years, probably decades.

I had a sharp reminder with the no mask "vacation" we Americans had for a few short months over the late spring and early summer. It looks like that vacation is over.

BTW, my 10 days in Mexico showed me that our neighbor didn't have this vacation. It also showed me that 95% of Mexicans take masks very seriously, urban and rural.

I asked a hotel desk lady if I had to wear my mask because I'd been vaccinated. She said, in the kindest way, to just please wear my mask. I got the message. I didn't bring up vaccines the rest of my time there.

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for August 19, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.206) with 114,179 cases, Guam (0.199) with 9200 cases, Montana (0.161) with 121,877 cases, South Dakota (0.152) with 127,991 cases, and Minnesota (0.150) with 631,858 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 311 of last 379 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 49 of last 139 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 113 of last 232 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 250 of last 319 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0219 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0227. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 4 states did not report new cases.

For 43 of the last 69 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 41 of last 80 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for August 20, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.444) with 5556 cases, North Dakota (0.223) with 114,481 cases, Guam (0.205) with 9298 cases, Wyoming (0.196) with 70,671 cases, and Minnesota (0.175) with 633,556 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 57 of last 120 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 312 of last 380 days. Guam has been in top 5 list for 50 of last 140 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 169 of last 334 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 251 of last 320 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0210 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0219. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 3 states did not report new cases.

For 44 of the last 70 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 42 of last 81 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for August 21, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Oklahoma (0.146) with 527,364 cases, North Dakota (0.140) with 114,690 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.112) with 5594 cases, Arkansas (0.100) with 434,027 cases, and Texas (0.091) with 3,467,410 cases. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 32 of last 94 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 313 of last 381 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 58 of last 121 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 160 of last 364 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0124 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0210. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 33 states did not report new cases.

For 45 of the last 71 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 43 of last 82 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (August 15 to August 21). The New Case Slope graph shows an decrease in the past week, the first decline since early May. Days to Double graph had an slight decrease for 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day lines in the past week. The Days to Double for the 7 day count is now at 41 days (similar to the end of January 2021). This week the new case count has increased from the previous week. This is the seventh week of increase in the new case count since April.

Stay safe out there.

volvolugnut

[MoVolvos]

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[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for August 22, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.082) with 9394 cases, North Dakota (0.075) with 114,806 cases, Vermont (0.063) with 27,050 cases, Delaware (0.054) with 116,771 cases, and Arizona (0.049) with 986,082 cases. Guam has been in top 5 list for 51 of last 142 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 314 of last 382 days.

Alabama, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00416 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0124. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 38 states did not report new cases.

For 46 of the last 72 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 44 of last 83 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[MoVolvos]

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New SARS-like virus can jump directly from bats to humans, no treatment available

November 9, 2015

Excerpts:

Researchers from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill have discovered a new bat SARS-like virus that can jump directly from its bat hosts to humans without mutation. However, researchers point out that if the SARS-like virus did jump, it is still unclear whether it could spread from human to human.

The discovery, reported in the Nov. 9 issue of Nature Medicine, is notable not only because there is no treatment for this newly discovered virus, but also because it highlights an ongoing debate over the government’s decision to suspend all gain-of-function experiments on a variety of select agents earlier this year.

... senior author Ralph Baric, PhD, professor of epidemiology at the Gillings School of Global Public Health and world-renowned expert in coronaviruses. “So this is not a situation of ‘if’ there will be an outbreak of one of these coronaviruses but rather ‘when’ and how prepared we’ll be to address it.”

Baric and his team demonstrated that the newly-identified SARS-like virus, labeled SHC014-CoV and found in the Chinese horseshoe bats, can jump between bats and humans by showing that the virus can latch onto and use the same human and bat receptor for entry. The virus also replicates as well as SARS-CoV in primary human lung cells, the preferred target for infection.

https://sph.unc.edu/sph-news/new-sars-l ... available/

I started this thread with the article above. A lot has happened since April. I recall in another article UNC was involved with Chinese counterparts concerning their finding?

viewtopic.php?f=30&t=96993

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So in today's Yahoo article this scientist suspect something of what was already known in 2015. When Rand Paul was grilling Fauci about Gain of Function research money, Fauci mumble about his funneling of money to this organization which in term worked with the WuHan lab bats etc...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/caught-cross ... 53402.html


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So did Saint Fauci pay for experiments behind the scene to prepare for this outbreak or it's just a good economic sense?


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