Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for September 27, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.258) with 88,935 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.253) with 6679 cases, Minnesota (0.144) with 699,966 cases, Montana (0.116) with 147,287 cases, and West Virginia (0.075) with 235,965 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 187 of last 372 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 78 of last 158 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 269 of last 357 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 133 of last 271 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 10 of last 23 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00826 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00247. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 4 states did not report new cases. The day before yesterday, the growth rate dropped below 0.003 for the first time since July 25, 2021.

For 81 of the last 108 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 79 of last 119 days with increasing active case numbers. Yesterday, the number of active cases dropped for the first time since July 24, 2021.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for September 28, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.323) with 706,158 cases, North Dakota (0.267) with 130,574 cases, Wyoming (0.129) with 89,414 cases, Montana (0.109) with 148,490 cases, and New Hampshire (0.101) with 119,068 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 270 of last 358 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 396 of last 419 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 188 of last 373 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 134 of last 272 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 7 of last 26 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0107 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00826. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 4 states did not report new cases.

For 82 of the last 109 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 79 of last 120 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for September 29, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.223) with 131,399 cases, New Hampshire (0.190) with 119,720 cases, Wyoming (0.151) with 89,965 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.129) with 6721 cases, and Oklahoma (0.119) with 611,885 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 397 of last 420 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 8 of last 27 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 189 of last 374 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 79 of last 160 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 45 of last 133 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0126 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0107. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 0 states did not report new cases.

For 83 of the last 110 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 80 of last 121 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[stayceewilson280]

In California and New York, where mandates for health care workers have gone into effect, many are complying. Until now, the biggest unknown about mandating Covid-19 vaccines in workplaces has been whether such requirements would lead to compliance or to significant departures by workers unwilling to get shots — at a time when many places were already facing staffing shortages. So far, a number of early mandates show few indications of large-scale resistance.

“Mandates are working,” said John Swartzberg, a physician and professor at the School of Public Health at the University of California, Berkeley. “If you define ‘working’ by the percentage of people getting vaccinated and not leaving their jobs in droves.”

Unlike other incentives — “prizes, perks, doughnuts, beer, we’ve seen just about everything offered to get people vaccinated” — mandates are among the few levers that historically have been effective in increasing compliance, said Dr. Swartzberg, who has tracked national efforts to increase rates of inoculation.




Everything you need to know about HIPAA compliant texting https://curogram.com/hipaa-compliant-texting

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for September 30, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.208) with 6758 cases, North Dakota (0.188) with 132,158 cases, Minnesota (0.166) with 711,094 cases, Wyoming (0.158) with 90,602 cases, and Oklahoma (0.157) with 613,765 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 80 of last 161 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 398 of last 421 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 271 of last 360 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 190 of last 375 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 46 of last 134 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0116 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0126. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 4 states did not report new cases.

For 84 of the last 111 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 81 of last 122 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 1, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.195) with 714,790 cases, North Dakota (0.150) with 132,808 cases, Wyoming (0.142) with 91,169 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.130) with 6786 cases, and New Hampshire (0.129) with 120,763 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 272 of last 361 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 399 of last 422 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 191 of last 376 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 81 of last 162 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 9 of last 29 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0122 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0116. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 2 states did not report new cases.

For 85 of the last 112 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 82 of last 123 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 2, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.164) with 133,519 cases, Oklahoma (0.134) with 616,754 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.129) with 6811 cases, West Virginia (0.112) with 243,671 cases, and Arkansas (0.064) with 497,576 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 400 of last 423 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 47 of last 136 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 82 of last 163 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 11 of last 28 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 170 of last 406 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00469 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0122. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 34 states did not report new cases.

For 86 of the last 113 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 82 of last 124 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (September 26 to October 2). The New Case Slope graph showed an increase in the past week but remains negative. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day count had increases this week. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 66 days.

This week the new case count average decreased from the previous week and continues a downward trend started four weeks ago. I am going to predict (and hope) this trend continues and cases drop until the Thanksgiving holiday week. Perhaps this increase will occur after Halloween parties. I predict new cases will rise as we reach the holiday season and people gather together indoors. Any bad judgement in this prediction is my own.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut
[/quote]

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 3, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.073) with 244,698 cases, North Dakota (0.060) with 133,785 cases, Pennsylvania (0.054) with 1,444,973 cases, Arkansas (0.048) with 498,062 cases, and Delaware (0.032) with 134,619 cases. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 12 of last 29 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 401 of last 424 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 171 of last 407 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00273 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00469. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 38 states did not report new cases.

Yesterday's growth rate was the lowest since July 18, 2021 when it was 0.00192. Note that more than half the states did not report yesterday.

For 86 of the last 114 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 83 of last 125 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 4, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.212) with 91,979 cases, Minnesota (0.165) with 718,327 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.147) with 6841 cases, Montana (0.126) with 153,479 cases, and North Dakota (0.070) with 134,063 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 192 of last 379 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 273 of last 364 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 83 of last 165 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 135 of last 278 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 402 of last 425 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00748 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00273. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 3 states did not report new cases.

For 87 of the last 115 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a significant increase the last several weeks. There have been 83 of last 126 days with increasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut