Coronavirus Thread

Post by **volvolugnut** » 16 Oct 2021, 08:08

volvolugnut wrote: ↑14 Oct 2021, 08:51
volvolugnut wrote: ↑13 Oct 2021, 13:53 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for October 14, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.347) with 7020 cases, Wyoming (0.170) with 96,664 cases, North Dakota (0.157) with 140,186 cases, New Hampshire (0.154) with 127,421 cases, and Minnesota (0.136) with 752,060 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 87 of last 175 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 18 of last 38 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 412 of last 435 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 16 of last 42 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 279 of last 374 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00993 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0103. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 2 state did not report new cases.

For 96 of the last 125 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a slight increase the last several weeks. There have been 9 of last 24 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 16 Oct 2021, 09:01

volvolugnut wrote: ↑16 Oct 2021, 08:08 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 15, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.182) with 7045 cases, Minnesota (0.146) with 755,401 cases, North Dakota (0.140) with 140,746 cases, West Virginia (0.138) with 258,413 cases, and New Hampshire (0.135) with 128,047 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 88 of last 176 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 280 of last 375 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 413 of last 436 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 18 of last 39 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 17 of last 43 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00959 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00993. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 2 state did not report new cases.

For 97 of the last 126 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a slight increase the last several weeks. There have been 10 of last 25 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 17 Oct 2021, 08:36

volvolugnut wrote: ↑16 Oct 2021, 09:01 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 16, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.212) with 7074 cases, North Dakota (0.130) with 141,268 cases, Oklahoma (0.124) with 633,020 cases, West Virginia (0.118) with 259,585 cases, and Arkansas (0.081) with 506,573 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 89 of last 177 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 414 of last 437 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 52 of last 149 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 19 of last 40 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 174 of last 420 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00350 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00959. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 34 states did not report new cases.

For 98 of the last 127 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have a slight increase the last several weeks. There have been 11 of last 26 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 17 Oct 2021, 09:28

volvolugnut wrote: ↑10 Oct 2021, 12:59 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (October 10 to October 16). The New Case Slope graph showed a increase in the past week but continues negative. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day count had increases this week. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 87 days.

This week the new case count average decreased from the previous week and continues a downward trend started six weeks ago.
New case average weekly count is now at about the same level as the first of August 2021.

I am going to predict (and hope) this trend continues and cases drop until the Thanksgiving holiday week. Perhaps this increase will occur after school Fall breaks or Halloween parties. I predict new cases will rise as we reach the holiday season and people gather together indoors. Any bad judgement in this prediction is my own.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 18 Oct 2021, 10:25

volvolugnut wrote: ↑17 Oct 2021, 08:36 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 17, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.084) with 260,444 cases, Arkansas (0.056) with 506,956 cases, North Dakota (0.056) with 141,484 cases, Vermont (0.049) with 37,318 cases, and Pennsylvania (0.032) with 1,510,430 cases. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 20 of last 41 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 175 of last 421 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 415 of last 438 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00185 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00350. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 41 states did not report new cases.

For 98 of the last 128 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days. Yesterday the growth rate was 0.00185, the lowest since July 11, 2021 when it was 0.00136. Both days were a Sunday, typically the lowest new case count of the week.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 12 of last 27 days with decreasing active case numbers. New case count for yesterday was 17,947, the lowest since July 25, 2021 when it was 13,818. Both days were a Sunday, typically the lowest new case count of the week.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 19 Oct 2021, 08:39

volvolugnut wrote: ↑18 Oct 2021, 10:25 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 18, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.291) with 98,165 cases, Oklahoma (0.135) with 635,443 cases, Minnesota (0.116) with 758,252 cases, Montana (0.108) with 165,941 cases, and West Virginia (0.072) with 261,133 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 19 of last 42 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 53 of last 151 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 281 of last 378 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 137 of last 292 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 21 of last 42 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00549 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00185. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 9 states did not report new cases.

For 99 of the last 129 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 13 of last 28 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 20 Oct 2021, 12:43

volvolugnut wrote: ↑19 Oct 2021, 08:39 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 19, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.252) with 763,915 cases, North Dakota (0.226) with 142,407 cases, Wyoming (0.129) with 98,567 cases, Montana (0.119) with 167,268 cases, and Arkansas (0.109) with 507,759 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 282 of last 379 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 416 of last 440 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 20 of last 43 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 138 of last 293 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 176 of last 423 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00749 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00549. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 4 states did not report new cases.

For 100 of the last 130 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 14 of last 29 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 21 Oct 2021, 12:16

volvolugnut wrote: ↑20 Oct 2021, 12:43 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 20, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.175) with 142,985 cases, Wyoming (0.144) with 99,007 cases, New Hampshire (0.136) with 130,615 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.122) with 7099 cases, and West Virginia (0.119) with 262,902 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 417 of last 441 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 21 of last 44 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 18 of last 48 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 90 of last 181 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 22 of last 44 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00843 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00749. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 1 state did not report new cases.

For 101 of the last 131 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 15 of last 30 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 22 Oct 2021, 13:28

volvolugnut wrote: ↑21 Oct 2021, 12:16 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 21, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.189) with 99,662 cases, North Dakota (0.154) with 143,521 cases, Oklahoma (0.154) with 637,908 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.153) with 7118 cases, and New Hampshire (0.142) with 131,255 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 22 of last 45 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 418 of last 442 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 54 of last 154 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 91 of last 182 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 19 of last 49 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00849 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00843. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 5 state did not report new cases.

For 102 of the last 132 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 16 of last 31 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

Post by **volvolugnut** » 23 Oct 2021, 14:25

volvolugnut wrote: ↑22 Oct 2021, 13:28 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 22, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.159) with 144,088 cases, Wyoming (0.145) with 100,174 cases, Oklahoma (0.142) with 638,957 cases, West Virginia (0.116) with 265,006 cases, and Minnesota (0.114) with 770,246 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 419 of last 443 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 23 of last 46 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 55 of last 155 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 23 of last 46 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 283 of last 382 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00866 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00849. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 3 state did not report new cases.

For 103 of the last 133 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 17 of last 32 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

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