Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 30, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.143) with 148,091 cases, West Virginia (0.116) with 271,871 cases, Oklahoma (0.114) with 644,684 cases, Arkansas (0.092) with 512,994 cases, and Ohio (0.046) with 1,542,911 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 426 of last 451 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 29 of last 54 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 59 of last 163 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 179 of last 434 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00286 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00860. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 35 states did not report new cases.

For 109 of the last 141 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 24 of last 40 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (October 24 to October 30). The New Case Slope graph showed a increase in the past week but continues negative. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day count had increases this week. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 108 days.

This week the new case count average decreased from the previous week and continues a downward trend started seven weeks ago.
New case average weekly count is now at about the same level as the first of August 2021.

I am going to predict (and hope) this trend continues and cases drop until the Thanksgiving holiday week. Perhaps this increase will occur after school Fall breaks or Halloween parties. I predict new cases will rise as we reach the holiday season and people gather together indoors. Any bad judgement in this prediction is my own.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 31, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.088) with 272,532 cases, North Dakota (0.083) with 148,394 cases, Vermont (0.050) with 40,191 cases, Arkansas (0.044) with 513,215 cases, and Arizona (0.043) with 1,168,900 cases. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 30 of last 55 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 427 of last 452 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 180 of last 435 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00214 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00286. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 38 states did not report new cases.

For 109 of the last 142 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 24 of last 41 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 1, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.222) with 103,622 cases, Minnesota (0.111) with 789,800 cases, Montana (0.101) with 176,976 cases, South Dakota (0.074) with 154,885 cases, and West Virginia (0.068) with 273,030 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 28 of last 56 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 288 of last 392 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 140 of last 306 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 31 of last 56 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00523 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00214. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 9 states did not report new cases.

For 110 of the last 143 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 25 of last 42 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 2, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.570) with 796,679 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.329) with 7233 cases, North Dakota (0.210) with 149,207 cases, Wyoming (0.141) with 103,989 cases, and Arkansas (0.141) with 513,993 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 289 of last 393 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 97 of last 194 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 428 of last 454 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 29 of last 57 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 181 of last 437 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00640 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00523. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 9 states did not report new cases.

For 111 of the last 144 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 26 of last 43 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 3, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.253) with 799,550 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.202) with 7251 cases, North Dakota (0.198) with 149,856 cases, New Hampshire (0.166) with 137,778 cases, and Wyoming (0.158) with 104,403 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 290 of last 394 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 98 of last 195 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 429 of last 455 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 30 of last 58 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00820 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00640. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 0 states did not report new cases.

For 112 of the last 145 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 27 of last 44 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 4, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.305) with 803,168 cases, Wyoming (0.180) with 104,940 cases, New Hampshire (0.179) with 138,511 cases, North Dakota (0.176) with 150,467 cases, and Oklahoma (0.172) with 647,633 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 291 of last 395 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 31 of last 59 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 430 of last 456 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 60 of last 168 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00945 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00820. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 4 states did not report new cases.

For 113 of the last 146 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 27 of last 45 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 5, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.232) with 806,462 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.181) with 7275 cases, New Hampshire (0.178) with 139,324 cases, North Dakota (0.158) with 151,041 cases, and West Virginia (0.131) with 276,267 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 292 of last 396 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 99 of last 197 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 431 of last 457 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 32 of last 60 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00920 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00945. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 2 states did not report new cases.

For 114 of the last 147 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 27 of last 46 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 6, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.200) with 7290 cases, North Dakota (0.168) with 151,644 cases, West Virginia (0.127) with 277,133 cases, Oklahoma (0.113) with 648,791 cases, and Arkansas (0.097) with 515,979 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 100 of last 198 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 432 of last 458 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 33 of last 61 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 61 of last 170 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 182 of last 441 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days day making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00352 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00920. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 34 states did not report new cases.

For 115 of the last 148 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 28 of last 47 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the latest week (October 31 to November 6). The New Case Slope graph showed a increase in the past week but continues negative. The Days to Double for the 7 and 14 day count decreased this week. The Days to Double for the 21 day count increased slightly this week. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 112 days.

This week the new case count average increased from the previous week and broke a downward trend started seven weeks ago.
New case average weekly count is now at about the same level as the first of August 2021.

I am going to predict (and hope) the trend continues and cases drop again until the Thanksgiving holiday week. Perhaps this increase will occur after school Fall breaks or Halloween parties. I predict new cases will rise as we reach the holiday season and people gather together indoors. Any bad judgement in this prediction is my own.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut