Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 6, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.563) with 119,093 cases, North Dakota (0.459) with 179,161 cases, Minnesota (0.387) with 1,038,731 cases, Guam (0.325) with 20,351 cases, and New Hampshire (0.319) with 211,952 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 58 of the last 122 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 473 of the last 520 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 329 of the last 457 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0471 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0461. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 6 states did not report new cases.

For 172 of the last 209 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 108 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 59 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 18% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

Yesterday the new case count was 751,512. This was the highest new case count ever and was 6.6 % higher than the previous high of 704,661 on the previous day.

Yesterday the growth rate was 0.0471. This was the highest since April 24, 2020 when it was 0.0521.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 7, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.399) with 180,646 cases, Guam (0.364) with 20,594 cases, West Virginia (0.351) with 351,688 cases, Minnesota (0.323) with 1,045,846 cases, and Wyoming (0.315) with 119,857 cases. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 474 of the last 521 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 59 of the last 123 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 330 of the last 458 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 59 of the last 123 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0511 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0471. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 7 states did not report new cases.

For 173 of the last 210 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 109 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 60 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 18% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

Yesterday the new case count was 849,181. This was the highest new case count ever and was 13 % higher than the previous high of 751,512 on the previous day.

Yesterday the growth rate was 0.0511. This was the highest since April 24, 2020 when it was 0.0521.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 8, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.299) with 355,872 cases, North Dakota (0.207) with 181,576 cases, Arkansas (0.161) with 613,014 cases, Vermont (0.142) with 76,421 cases, and Arizona (0.121) with 1,461,633 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 60 of the last 124 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 475 of the last 522 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 217 of the last 504 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0268 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0511. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 33 states did not report new cases.

For 174 of the last 211 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 110 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 60 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 18% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (January 2 to January .

The New Case Slope graph showed an another huge increase in the past week and continues in the positive range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14, and 21 day count decreased the past week. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 27 days.

The New Case Slope line continues the increasing trend. The sharp increase of the slope line indicates we will have continued high growth in new cases for several weeks.

I predict new cases will continue to rise after the holiday season, at least for several weeks. Any bad judgement in this prediction is my own.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 9, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.211) with 182,538 cases, West Virginia (0.130) with 357,980 cases, Arizona (0.107) with 1,477,483 cases, Guam (0.092) with 20,809 cases, and Delaware (0.081) with 205,640 cases. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 476 of the last 523 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 61 of the last 125 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0173 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0268. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 39 states did not report new cases.

For 175 of the last 212 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 111 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 61 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 18% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 10, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.568) with 121,519 cases, Minnesota (0.381) with1,055,638 cases, Montana (0.315) with 204,788 cases, Guam (0.214) with 21,118 cases, and Connecticut (0.212) with 605,116 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 60 of the last 126 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 331 of the last 461 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 8 of the last 21 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0371 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0173. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 4 states did not report new cases.

For 176 of the last 213 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 112 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 62 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 19% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 11, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.981) with1,082,396 cases, North Dakota (0.415) with 184,613 cases, Wyoming (0.400) with 122,754 cases, Guam (0.251) with 21,540 cases, and Montana (0.195) with 206,295 cases. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 332 of the last 462 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 477 of the last 525 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 61 of the last 127 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 9 of the last 22 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0349 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0371. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 8 states did not report new cases.

For 177 of the last 214 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 113 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 63 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 19% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 12, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.641) with 187,528 cases, Minnesota (0.412) with1,092,035 cases, West Virginia (0.335) with 367,217 cases, Wyoming (0.301) with 123,743 cases, and Guam (0.250) with 22,056 cases. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 478 of the last 526 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 333 of the last 463 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 62 of the last 128 days.
Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 62 of the last 128 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0417 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0349. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 2 states did not report new cases.

For 178 of the last 215 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 114 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 64 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 19% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 13, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.432) with 190,144 cases, West Virginia (0.401) with 372,674 cases, Wyoming (0.381) with 124,986 cases, Minnesota (0.361) with1,102,367 cases, and New Hampshire (0.202) with 233,508 cases. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 479 of the last 527 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 63 of the last 129 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 63 of the last 129 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 334 of the last 464 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0390 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0417. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 7 states did not report new cases.

For 179 of the last 216 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 115 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 65 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 20% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

A featured graph today shows the 7 Day Average Growth Rate since late 2020. The current Growth Rate in similar to the fast growth rate of the fall of 2020.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 14, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.419) with 126,468 cases, West Virginia (0.342) with 377,735 cases, North Dakota (0.281) with 192,239 cases, Minnesota (0.227) with 1,110,693 cases, and Montana (0.208) with 212,078 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 64 of the last 130 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 64 of the last 130 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 480 of the last 528 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 335 of the last 465 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 10 of the last 25 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0386 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0390. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 5 states did not report new cases.

For 180 of the last 217 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 116 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 66 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 20% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut