Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 23, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.278) with 418,887 cases, Arizona (0.061) with 1,752,552 cases, North Carolina (0.054) with 2,271,727 cases, Guam (0.050) with 27,207 cases, and North Dakota (0.047) with 211,040 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 72 of the last 139 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 12 of the last 20 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 489 of the last 537 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0106 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0119. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 30 states did not report new cases.

For 189 of the last 226 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 125 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 72 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 22% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 24, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.573) with 1,191,214 cases, Montana (0.361) with 227,094 cases, Wyoming (0.310) with 137,873 cases, West Virginia (0.156) with 422,265 cases, and Guam (0.089) with 27,869 cases. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 340 of the last 475 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 14 of the last 35 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 69 of the last 140 days.
West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 73 of the last 140 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 13 of the last 21 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0173 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0106. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 6 states did not report new cases.

For 190 of the last 227 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 126 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 72 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 22% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 25, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (2.201) with 1,223,000 cases, North Dakota (0.255) with 214,459 cases, Wyoming (0.204) with 139,461 cases, Montana (0.197) with 229,966 cases, and West Virginia (0.128) with 425,013 cases. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 341 of the last 476 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 490 of the last 539 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 70 of the last 141 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 15 of the last 36 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 74 of the last 141 days.

There is clearly some problem with the Minnesota active case number today. Only 131 active cases were reported after 14,400 yesterday. The growth rate is abnormally high at 2.201, but I expect with accurate reporting it would still be in the top 5.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0163 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0173. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 7 states did not report new cases.

For 191 of the last 228 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 127 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 73 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 22% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 26, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (106) with 1,236,933 cases, Wyoming (0.412) with 141,090 cases, North Dakota (0.306) with 216,814 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.236) with 14,689 cases, and West Virginia (0.208) with 429,016 cases. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 342 of the last 477 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 71 of the last 142 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 491 of the last 540 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 134 of the last 279 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 75 of the last 142 days.

There is clearly a problem with the Minnesota active case number today. Only 3118 active cases were reported after 131 yesterday. The growth rate is abnormally high at 106, but I expect with accurate reporting it would still be in the top 5.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0194 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0163. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 2 states did not report new cases.

For 192 of the last 229 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 128 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 74 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 22% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases. UK also reported as many as 2/3 of Omicron cases are reinfections of previously infected people.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 27, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (4.198) with 1,250,023 cases, Wyoming (0.511) with 143,129 cases, West Virginia (0.287) with 434,221 cases, North Dakota (0.278) with 218,960 cases, and Montana (0.181) with 235,967 cases. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 343 of the last 478 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 72 of the last 143 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 76 of the last 143 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 492 of the last 541 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 16 of the last 38 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0179 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0194. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 6 states did not report new cases.

For 193 of the last 230 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 129 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 74 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 22% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases. UK also reported as many as 2/3 of Omicron cases are reinfections of previously infected people.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 28, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (1.341) with 1,263,193 cases, Wyoming (0.279) with 144,526 cases, West Virginia (0.266) with 438,889 cases, North Dakota (0.265) with 221,025 cases, and New Hampshire (0.167) with 272,492 cases. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 344 of the last 479 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 73 of the last 144 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 77 of the last 144 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 493 of the last 542 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0185 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0179. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 4 states did not report new cases.

For 194 of the last 231 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 130 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 75 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 23% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases. UK also reported as many as 2/3 of Omicron cases are reinfections of previously infected people.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 29, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.194) with 442,206 cases, North Dakota (0.186) with 222,648 cases, Guam (0.054) with 31,440 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.052) with 14,846 cases, and Arizona (0.035) with 1,844,912 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 78 of the last 145 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 494 of the last 543 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 14 of the last 26 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 135 of the last 282 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00672 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0185. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 34 states did not report new cases.

For 195 of the last 232 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 131 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 75 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 23% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases. UK also reported as many as 2/3 of Omicron cases are reinfections of previously infected people.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 30, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.164) with 445,061 cases, North Dakota (0.079) with 223,362 cases, Guam (0.047) with 31,804 cases, Arizona (0.030) with 1,858,385 cases, and Ohio (0.017) with 2,576,245 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 79 of the last 146 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 495 of the last 544 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 15 of the last 27 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00338 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00672. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 40 states did not report new cases.

For 196 of the last 233 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 132 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 76 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 23% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases. UK also reported as many as 2/3 of Omicron cases are reinfections of previously infected people.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 31, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.649) with 1,274,043 cases, Wyoming (0.364) with 146,505 cases, Montana (0.171) with 242,180 cases, Arkansas (0.116) with 776,759 cases, and West Virginia (0.098) with 446,771 cases. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 345 of the last 482 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 74 of the last 147 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 17 of the last 42 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 219 of the last 527 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 80 of the last 147 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00955 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00338. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 5 states did not report new cases.

For 197 of the last 234 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 33 of last 133 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 76 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 23% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases. UK also reported as many as 2/3 of Omicron cases are reinfections of previously infected people.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (January 23 to January 29).

The New Case Slope graph showed a sharp decrease in the past week and a move into the negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14, and 21 day count increased the past week. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 30 days.

The New Case Slope line is now at the lowest level ever seen. We may be seeing a long term change in the new case trend.

Stay safe out there. New case counts are still quite high compared to a few months ago. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

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