Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 6, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.122) with 463,357 cases, Guam (0.048) with 36,113 cases, Arkansas (0.024) with 794,342 cases, Arizona (0.014) with 1,918,034 cases, and Ohio (0.010) with 2,610,125 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 86 of the last 153 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 20 of the last 34 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 221 of the last 533 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00174 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00362. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 42 states did not report new cases.

For 202 of the last 240 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Yesterday's Growth Rate was the lowest at 0.00174 since July 11, 2021, when it was 0.00136.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 36 of last 139 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 78 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 23% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases. UK also reported as many as 2/3 of Omicron cases are reinfections of previously infected people.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 7, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.297) with 150,722 cases, Montana (0.120) with 251,920 cases, West Virginia (0.107) with 464,630 cases, New Hampshire (0.092) with 284,180 cases, and Guam (0.067) with 36,612 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 79 of the last 154 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 19 of the last 49 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 87 of the last 154 days. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 5 of the last 11 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 21 of the last 35 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00538 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00174. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 4 states did not report new cases.

For 203 of the last 241 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have increased the last several weeks. There have been 36 of last 140 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 78 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 23% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases. UK also reported as many as 2/3 of Omicron cases are reinfections of previously infected people.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 8, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.274) with 231,841 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.199) with 15,098 cases, Wyoming (0.179) with 151,159 cases, Guam (0.148) with 37,456 cases, and West Virginia (0.140) with 466,125 cases. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 501 of the last 553 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 137 of the last 292 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 80 of the last 155 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 22 of the last 36 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 88 of the last 155 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00615 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00538. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 7 states did not report new cases.

For 204 of the last 242 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 37 of last 141 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 78 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 23% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases. UK also reported as many as 2/3 of Omicron cases are reinfections of previously infected people.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 9, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.356) with 151,803 cases, North Dakota (0.263) with 232,723 cases, West Virginia (0.250) with 468,391 cases, New Hampshire (0.245) with 285,863 cases, and Montana (0.122) with 254,231 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 81 of the last 156 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 502 of the last 554 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 89 of the last 156 days. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 6 of the last 13 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 20 of the last 51 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00790 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00615. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 2 states did not report new cases.

For 205 of the last 243 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 38 of last 142 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 78 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 23% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases. UK also reported as many as 2/3 of Omicron cases are reinfections of previously infected people.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 10, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.290) with 470,807 cases, North Dakota (0.235) with 233,538 cases, New Hampshire (0.199) with 287,020 cases, Wyoming (0.167) with 152,206 cases, and Montana (0.141) with 255,411 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 90 of the last 157 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 503 of the last 555 days. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 7 of the last 14 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 82 of the last 157 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 21 of the last 52 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00625 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00790. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 7 states did not report new cases.

For 206 of the last 244 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 38 of last 143 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 79 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 23% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases. UK also reported as many as 2/3 of Omicron cases are reinfections of previously infected people.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 11, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.279) with 472,928 cases, Wyoming (0.209) with 152,581 cases, New Hampshire (0.193) with 288,191 cases, Minnesota (0.191) with 1,388,401 cases, and North Dakota (0.188) with 234,205 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 91 of the last 158 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 83 of the last 158 days. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 8 of the last 15 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 347 of the last 493 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 504 of the last 556 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00521 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00625. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 6 states did not report new cases.

For 207 of the last 245 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 39 of last 144 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 79 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 23% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases. UK also reported as many as 2/3 of Omicron cases are reinfections of previously infected people.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 12, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.221) with 474,712 cases, North Dakota (0.132) with 234,675 cases, Arkansas (0.089) with 806,076 cases, Guam (0.049) with 39,640 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.042) with 15,182 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 92 of the last 159 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 505 of the last 557 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 222 of the last 539 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 23 of the last 40 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 138 of the last 296 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00208 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00521. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 35 states did not report new cases.

For 207 of the last 246 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days. Yesterday the growth rate was 0.00208, lowest since February 6, 2022 when it was 0.00174.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 40 of last 145 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 79 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 23% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases. UK also reported as many as 2/3 of Omicron cases are reinfections of previously infected people.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (February 6 to February 12, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph showed a small increase in the past week and continues in the negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14, and 21 day count increased the past week. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 75 days.

The New Case Slope line is now at the second lowest level ever seen, with the lowest level last week. It appears we are seeing a long term change in the new case trend.

The Growth Rate of new cases has dropped sharply from a few weeks ago down to a level similar to July 2021.

Although we had sharply falling new case counts and Growth Rate falling, we still have a level of new cases near the earlier peaks.

Stay safe out there. New case counts are still quite high compared to a few months ago. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 13, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.161) with 476,060 cases, North Dakota (0.055) with 234,875 cases, Guam (0.046) with 39,985 cases, Arkansas (0.039) with 806,877 cases, and Ohio (0.013) with 2,632,336 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 93 of the last 160 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 506 of the last 558 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 24 of the last 41 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 223 of the last 540 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00111 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00208. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 41 states did not report new cases.

Yesterday the growth rate was 0.00111, lowest since July 4, 2021 when it was 0.000854.

For 207 of the last 247 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 41 of last 146 days with decreasing active case numbers.

Yesterday the New Case Count was 31,652, lowest since November 28, 2021 when it was 20,835.

There have now been 79 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 23% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases. UK also reported as many as 2/3 of Omicron cases are reinfections of previously infected people.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 14, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.294) with 153,095 cases, Minnesota (0.163) with 1.392,731 cases, Montana (0.141) with 257,852 cases, West Virginia (0.108) with 476,957 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.103) with 15,208 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 84 of the last 161 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 348 of the last 496 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 22 of the last 56 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 94 of the last 161 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 139 of the last 298 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00283 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00111. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 5 states did not report new cases.

For 207 of the last 248 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 42 of last 147 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 79 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 23% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut