Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 15, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.266) with 1.399,164 cases, Wyoming (0.245) with 153,335 cases, Montana (0.199) with 258,765 cases, North Dakota (0.194) with 235,447 cases, and New Hampshire (0.140) with 291,083 cases. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 349 of the last 497 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 85 of the last 162 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 23 of the last 57 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 507 of the last 560 days. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 8 of the last 19 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00345 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00283. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 7 states did not report new cases.

For 208 of the last 249 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 10 of last 15 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 79 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 23% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 16, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.388) with 153,663 cases, Montana (0.226) with 259,701 cases, West Virginia (0.215) with 479,214 cases, North Dakota (0.198) with 235,873 cases, and New Hampshire (0.132) with 291,540 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 86 of the last 163 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 24 of the last 58 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 95 of the last 163 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 508 of the last 561 days. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 9 of the last 20 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00409 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00345. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 1 state did not report new cases.

For 209 of the last 250 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 11 of last 16 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 79 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 17, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.280) with 480,692 cases, Montana (0.218) with 260,603 cases, Wyoming (0.208) with 153,850 cases, North Dakota (0.200) with 236,267 cases, and New Hampshire (0.198) with 292,187 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 96 of the last 164 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 25 of the last 59 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 87 of the last 164 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 509 of the last 562 days. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 10 of the last 21 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00369 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00409. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 8 state did not report new cases.

For 210 of the last 251 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 12 of last 17 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 79 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 18, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: New Hampshire (0.501) with 293,697 cases, Wyoming (0.283) with 154,082 cases, Montana (0.264) with 261,722 cases, West Virginia (0.232) with 481,818 cases, and North Dakota (0.154) with 236,553 cases. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 11 of the last 22 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 88 of the last 165 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 26 of the last 60 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 97 of the last 165 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 510 of the last 563 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00388 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00369. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 1 state did not report new cases.

For 211 of the last 252 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 13 of last 18 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 80 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 19, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.128) with 236,784 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.110) with 15,362 cases, Arkansas (0.077) with 813,925 cases, Guam (0.037) with 42,403 cases, and Ohio (0.023) with 2,643,929 cases. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 511 of the last 564 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 140 of the last 303 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 224 of the last 546 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 25 of the last 47 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00150 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00388. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 37 states did not report new cases.

For 211 of the last 253 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 14 of last 19 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 80 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (February 13 to February 19, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph showed a small increase in the past week and continues in the negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14, and 21 day count increased the past week. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 133 days.

The New Case Slope line is now at the third lowest level ever seen, with the lowest level two weeks ago. It appears we are seeing a long term change in the new case trend.

The Growth Rate of new cases has dropped sharply from a few weeks ago down to a level similar to July 2021 and near all time low.

Stay safe out there. New case counts are still quite high compared to a few months ago. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 20, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.066) with 814,728 cases, North Dakota (0.060) with 236,897 cases, Guam (0.028) with 42,544 cases, Ohio (0.014) with 2,644,828 cases, and Delaware (0.009) with 255,096 cases. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 225 of the last 547 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 512 of the last 565 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 26 of the last 48 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.000546 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00150. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 43 states did not report new cases.

The Growth Rate for yesterday was the lowest ever recorded at 0.000546. The previous low was 0.000854 on July 4, 2021.

For 211 of the last 254 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 15 of last 20 days with decreasing active case numbers.

The New Case Count for yesterday at 15,056 was the lowest since July 25, 2021 when it was 13,818.

There have now been 80 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 21, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.109) with 484,923 cases, Guam (0.053) with 42,818 cases, Arkansas (0.049) with 815,299 cases, North Dakota (0.036) with 236,955 cases, and Connecticut (0.020) with 720,618 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 98 of the last 168 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 27 of the last 49 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 226 of the last 548 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 513 of the last 566 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00101 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.000546. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 31 states did not report new cases.

For 211 of the last 255 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 16 of last 21 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 80 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 22, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.443) with 263,358 cases, Wyoming (0.245) with 154,549 cases, North Dakota (0.129) with 237,128 cases, West Virginia (0.123) with 485,498 cases, and Minnesota (0.117) with 1,406,654 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 27 of the last 64 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 89 of the last 169 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 514 of the last 567 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 99 of the last 169 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 350 of the last 504 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00227 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00101. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 5 states did not report new cases.

For 211 of the last 256 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 17 of last 22 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 80 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 23, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.397) with 264,277 cases, Minnesota (0.260) with 1,410,583 cases, Wyoming (0.210) with 154,662 cases, West Virginia (0.176) with 486,206 cases, and North Dakota (0.149) with 237,321 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 28 of the last 65 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 351 of the last 505 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 90 of the last 170 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 100 of the last 170 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 515 of the last 568 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00278 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00227. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 1 state did not report new cases.

For 211 of the last 257 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 18 of last 23 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 80 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut