Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 24, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: New Hampshire (0.732) with 296,870 cases, Montana (0.383) with 265,177 cases, West Virginia (0.338) with 487,446 cases, Wyoming (0.278) with 154,797 cases,and North Dakota (0.216) with 237,599 cases. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 12 of the last 28 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 29 of the last 66 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 99 of the last 171 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 91 of the last 171 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 516 of the last 569 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00258 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00278. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 9 state did not report new cases.

For 211 of the last 257 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 19 of last 24 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 80 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 25, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: New Hampshire (0.416) with 297,729 cases, West Virginia (0.274) with 488,359 cases, Montana (0.258) with 265,797 cases, Wyoming (0.233) with 154,909 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.188) with 15,362 cases. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 13 of the last 29 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 100 of the last 172 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 30 of the last 67 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 92 of the last 172 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 141 of the last 309 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00284 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00258. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 5 state did not report new cases.

For 10 of the last 14 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 20 of last 25 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 80 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 26, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.306) with 15,395 cases, Arkansas (0.116) with 818,931 cases, North Dakota (0.103) with 237,935 cases, Guam (0.035) with 44,238 cases, and Ohio (0.031) with 2,652,634 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 142 of the last 310 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 227 of the last 553 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 517 of the last 571 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 28 of the last 54 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.000974 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00284. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 37 state did not report new cases.

For 11 of the last 15 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 21 of last 26 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 80 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (February 20 to February 26, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph showed a large increase in the past week but continues in the negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14, and 21 day count increased sharply the past week. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 213 days.

The Growth Rate of new cases has dropped sharply from a few weeks ago down to a level similar to July 2021 and near all time low.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 27, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.075) with 819,426 cases, North Dakota (0.074) with 238,029 cases, Guam (0.028) with 44,344 cases, Ohio (0.014) with 2,653,211 cases, and Delaware (0.012) with 256,551 cases. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 228 of the last 554 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 518 of the last 572 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 29 of the last 55 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.000281 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.000974. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 43 states did not report new cases.

Yesterday the growth rate was the lowest since ever at 0.000281. The previous low was 0.000546 on February 20, 2022. Both of these days were Sundays when reporting is lowest.

For 12 of the last 16 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 22 of last 27 days with decreasing active case numbers.

New Case count for yesterday was 7,464. This is the lowest count since July 11, 2021 when it was 6,642. Both of these days were Sundays when reporting is lowest.

There have now been 80 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for February 28, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.386) with 155,101 cases, Montana (0.372) with 266,579 cases, Minnesota (0.111) with 1,413,576 cases, West Virginia (0.105) with 490,111 cases, and New Hampshire (0.091) with 298,362 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 93 of the last 175 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 31 of the last 70 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 352 of the last 510 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 101 of the last 175 days. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 14 of the last 32 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00125 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.000281. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 10 states did not report new cases.

For 13 of the last 17 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 23 of last 28 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 80 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 1, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.424) with 267,231 cases, Minnesota (0.239) with 1,415,652 cases, New Hampshire (0.180) with 298,626 cases, Wyoming (0.147) with 155,184 cases, and West Virginia (0.142) with 490,544 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 32 of the last 71 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 353 of the last 511 days. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 15 of the last 33 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 94 of the last 176 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 102 of the last 176 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00160 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00125. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 11 states did not report new cases.

For 14 of the last 18 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 24 of last 29 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 80 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 2, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.625) with 268,100 cases, Wyoming (0.296) with 155,277 cases, West Virginia (0.193) with 491,042 cases, North Dakota (0.139) with 238,354 cases, and New Hampshire (0.130) with 298,808 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 33 of the last 72 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 95 of the last 177 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 103 of the last 177 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 519 of the last 575 days. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 16 of the last 34 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00195 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00160. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 3 states did not report new cases.

For 15 of the last 19 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 25 of last 30 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 80 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 3, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.498) with 268,950 cases, West Virginia (0.306) with 491,698 cases, Wyoming (0.212) with 155,349 cases, North Dakota (0.174) with 238,505 cases, and Minnesota (0.142) with 1,417,015 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 34 of the last 73 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 104 of the last 178 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 96 of the last 178 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 520 of the last 576 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 354 of the last 513 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00190 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00195. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 9 states did not report new cases.

For 16 of the last 20 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 26 of last 31 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 80 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 4, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.282) with 492,276 cases, Wyoming (0.236) with 155,426 cases, Montana (0.184) with 271,030 cases, North Dakota (0.178) with 238,625 cases, and New Hampshire (0.148) with 299,213 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 105 of the last 179 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 97 of the last 179 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 35 of the last 74 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 521 of the last 577 days. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 17 of the last 36 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00178 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00190. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 6 states did not report new cases.

For 17 of the last 21 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have flattened in the last couple weeks. There have been 27 of last 32 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 80 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut