Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 13, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.152) with 826,570 cases, North Dakota (0.072) with 239,216 cases, Guam (0.018) with 46,331 cases, Delaware (0.017) with 258,185 cases, and Ohio (0.016) with 2,663,835 cases. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 235 of the last 568 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 529 of the last 586 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 33 of the last 69 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.000212 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.000502. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 46 states did not report new cases.

For 26 of the last 30 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 36 of last 41 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 14, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.344) with 15,567 cases, Montana (0.156) with 271,774 cases, Arkansas (0.145) with 826,913 cases, Minnesota (0.105) with 1,422,344 cases, and West Virginia (0.084) with 495,539 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 144 of the last 326 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 39 of the last 84 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 236 of the last 569 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 358 of the last 584 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 110 of the last 189 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.000716 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.000212. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 13 states did not report new cases.

For 27 of the last 31 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 37 of last 42 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 15, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.278) with 155,815 cases, Arkansas (0.197) with 827,336 cases, North Dakota (0.185) with 239,283 cases, Montana (0.154) with 271,875 cases, and West Virginia (0.152) with 495,728 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 103 of the last 190 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 237 of the last 570 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 530 of the last 588 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 40 of the last 85 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 111 of the last 190 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00106 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.000716. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 13 states did not report new cases.

For 28 of the last 32 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 38 of last 43 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 16, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.
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For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.329) with 1,423,683 cases, West Virginia (0.212) with 495,960 cases, North Dakota (0.206) with 239,339 cases, Arkansas (0.182) with 827,709 cases, and New Hampshire (0.181) with 300,692 cases. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 359 of the last 586 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 112 of the last 191 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 531 of the last 589 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 238 of the last 571 days. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 19 of the last 48 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00128 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00106. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 7 states did not report new cases.

For 29 of the last 33 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 39 of last 44 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 17, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.255) with 496,182 cases, Arkansas (0.236) with 828,166 cases, North Dakota (0.182) with 239,391 cases, Minnesota (0.142) with 1,424,107 cases, and Montana (0.136) with 272,036 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 113 of the last 192 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 239 of the last 572 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 532 of the last 590 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 360 of the last 587 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 41 of the last 87 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00128 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00106. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 12 states did not report new cases.

For 30 of the last 34 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 40 of last 45 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 18, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (1.082) with 155,907 cases, Arkansas (0.392) with 828,889 cases, West Virginia (0.291) with 496,409 cases, North Dakota (0.181) with 239,442 cases, and Minnesota (0.160) with 1,424,613 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 104 of the last 193 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 240 of the last 573 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 114 of the last 193 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 533 of the last 591 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 361 of the last 588 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00137 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00150. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 10 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 31 of the last 35 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 41 of last 46 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 19, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.641) with 830,020 cases, Delaware (0.027) with 258,595 cases, Guam (0.025) with 46,723 cases, New Jersey (0.007) with 2,187,715 cases, and Puerto Rico (0.001) with 477,334 cases. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 241 of the last 574 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 33 of the last 75 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.000528 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00137. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 41 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 32 of the last 36 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 42 of last 47 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (March 13 to March 19, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph showed an increase in the past week but still continues in the negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14, and 21 day count increased sharply the past week. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 615 days.

The Growth Rate of new cases has dropped sharply from a few weeks ago down to a level lower than July 2021 and another all time low. This week the Average Growth Rate was 0.0010 and in June 2021 it was 0.0018.

In short, new cases are very low, but are not falling.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 20, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.163) with 830,310 cases, Delaware (0.026) with 258,671 cases, Guam (0.006) with 46,730 cases, New Jersey (0.004) with 2,188,228 cases, and Puerto Rico (0.001) with 477,621 cases. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 242 of the last 575 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 34 of the last 76 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.000256 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.000528. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 48 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 33 of the last 37 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 43 of last 48 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 21, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.446) with 831,091 cases, West Virginia (0.174) with 469,748 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.136) with 15,584 cases, Montana (0.125) with 272,183 cases, and Minnesota (0.124) with 1,425,032 cases. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 243 of the last 576 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 115 of the last 196 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 145 of the last 333 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 42 of the last 91 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 362 of the last 591days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.000944 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.000256. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 15 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 34 of the last 38 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 44 of last 49 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut