Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 22, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.810) with 155,988 cases, Arkansas (0.365) with 831,698 cases, Minnesota (0.317) with 1,426,056 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.217) with 15,589 cases, and Montana (0.152) with 272,258 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 105 of the last 197 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 244 of the last 577 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 363 of the last 592 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 146 of the last 334 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 43 of the last 92 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00137 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.000944. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 12 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 35 of the last 39 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 45 of last 50 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 23, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.285) with 496,983 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.259) with 15,596 cases, New Hampshire (0.169) with 301,534 cases, Arkansas (0.144) with 831,947 cases, and Montana (0.114) with 272,311 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 116 of the last 198 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 147 of the last 335 days. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 20 of the last 55 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 245 of the last 578 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 44 of the last 93 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00188 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00137. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 7 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 36 of the last 40 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 46 of last 51 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 24, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Is lands (0.303) with 15,606 cases, West Virginia (0.286) with 497,111 cases, Minnesota (0.167) with 1,426,787 cases, New Hampshire (0.155) with 301,687 cases, and Arkansas (0.150) with 832,205 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 148 of the last 336 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 117 of the last 199 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 365 of the last 594 days. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 21 of the last 56 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 246 of the last 579 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00188 for yesterday, no change from previous day of 0.00188. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 15 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 37 of the last 41 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 47 of last 52 days with decreasing active case numbers.

Daily active case count has dropped 42% since the high on February 7, 2022.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 25, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.895) with 156,056 cases, West Virginia (0.282) with 497,230 cases, Minnesota (0.162) with 1,427,270 cases, US Virgin Is lands (0.122) with 15,611 cases, and Arkansas (0.113) with 832,394 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 106 of the last 200 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 118 of the last 200 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 366 of the last 595 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 149 of the last 337 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 247 of the last 580 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00191 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00188. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 12 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 38 of the last 42 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 48 of last 53 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 26, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Oklahoma (0.199) with 1,032,520 cases, Arkansas (0.072) with 832,515 cases, Texas (0.042) with 6,736,214 cases, Delaware (0.036) with 259,287 cases, and Guam (0.029) with 47,678 cases. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 248 of the last 581 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 35 of the last 82 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.000938 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00191. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 42 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 39 of the last 43 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 49 of last 54 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (March 20 to March 26, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph showed an increase in the past week but still continues in the negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day and 14 day count decreased the past week, while the 21 day count had a slight increase. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 620 days.

The Growth Rate of new cases rose slightly the past week but is still lower than July 2021. This week the Average Growth Rate was 0.0013 and in June 2021 it was 0.0018.

In short, new cases are very low, but are not falling. The change in direction of the 7 and 14 day counts indicate a new change may be coming.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 27, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Delaware (0.031) with 259,374 cases, Arkansas (0.023) with 832,553 cases, New Jersey (0.011) with 2,195,320 cases, Texas (0.005) with 6,736,749 cases, and Guam (0.002) with 47,080 cases. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 249 of the last 582 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 36 of the last 83 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.000303 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.000938. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 49 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 40 of the last 44 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 50 of last 55 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 28, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.300) with 15,623 cases, Minnesota (0.143) with 1,427,734 cases, Montana (0.134) with 272,454 cases, West Virginia (0.124) with 497,459 cases, and Connecticut (0.075) with 735,210 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 150 of the last 340 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 367 of the last 598 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 45 of the last 98 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 119 of the last 203 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00104 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.000303. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 17 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 41 of the last 45 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 51 of last 56 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 29, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.500) with 156,112 cases, Minnesota (0.303) with 1,428,704 cases, West Virginia (0.232) with 497,553 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.205) with 15,632 cases, and Montana (0.137) with 272,509 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 107 of the last 204 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 368 of the last 599 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 120 of the last 204 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 151 of the last 341 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 46 of the last 99 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00150 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00104. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 14 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 42 of the last 46 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 52 of last 57 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 30, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Carolina (0.170) with 2,628,287 cases, New Hampshire (0.132) with 302,383 cases, Minnesota (0.121) with 1,429,051 cases, Montana (0.099) with 272,543 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.095) with 15,636 cases. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 22 of the last 62 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 369 of the last 600 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 47 of the last 100 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 152 of the last 342 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00197 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00150. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 9 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 43 of the last 47 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 53 of last 58 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut