Coronavirus Thread

[br0dy519]

US/Canada opening it's border tomorrow. Look out USA, here I come!!!

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for March 31, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (4.400) with 497,769 cases, Minnesota (0.177) with 1,429,550 cases, New Hampshire (0.152) with 302,541 cases, North Carolina (0.146) with 2,629,362 cases, and Oklahoma (0.122) with 1,033,848 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 121 of the last 206 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 370 of the last 601 days. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 23 of the last 63 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00221 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00197. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 17 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 44 of the last 48 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 54 of last 59 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 1, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.950) with 497,864 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.444) with 15,656 cases, Montana (0.187) with 272,621 cases, Minnesota (0.177) with 1,430,089 cases, and North Carolina (0.136) with 2,630,506 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 122 of the last 207 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 153 of the last 344 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 48 of the last 102 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 371 of the last 602 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00196 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00221. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 17 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 45 of the last 49 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 55 of last 60 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 2, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.045) with 833,090 cases, Delaware (0.038) with 259,848 cases, Texas (0.027) with 6,754,830 cases, Guam (0.023) with 47,330 cases, and New Jersey (0.021) with 2,202,817 cases. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 250 of the last 588 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 37 of the last 88 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.000821 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00196. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 44 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 46 of the last 50 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 56 of last 61 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (March 27 to April 2, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph showed an increase in the past week but still continues in the negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day count decreased the past week. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 568 days.

The Growth Rate of new cases rose slightly the past week but is still lower than July 2021. This week the Average Growth Rate was 0.0014 and in June 2021 it was 0.0018.

In short, new cases are very low, but are not falling. The change in direction of the 7, 14. and 21 day counts indicate a new change may be coming.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 3, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Delaware (0.030) with 259,927 cases, Arkansas (0.028) with 833,128 cases, New Jersey (0.014) with 2,203,836 cases, Texas (0.011) with 6,755,922 cases, and Guam (0.008) with 47,337 cases. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 251 of the last 589 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 38 of the last 89 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.000408 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.000821. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 50 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 47 of the last 51 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 57 of last 62 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 4, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.321) with 15,673 cases, West Virginia (0.241) with 498,035 cases, Montana (0.161) with 272,679 cases, Minnesota (0.138) with 1,430,556 cases, and New Hampshire (0.103) with 303,010 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 154 of the last 347 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 123 of the last 210 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 49 of the last 105 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 372 of the last 605 days. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 24 of the last 67 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00126 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.000408. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 23 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 48 of the last 52 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 58 of last 63 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 5, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (2.576) with 156,264 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.686) with 15,708 cases, Minnesota (0.327) with 1,431,643 cases, West Virginia (0.307) with 498,128 cases, and Montana (0.131) with 272,727 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 108 of the last 211 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 155 of the last 348 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 373 of the last 606 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 124 of the last 211 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 50 of the last 106 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00170 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00126. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 18 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 49 of the last 53 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 59 of last 64 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 6, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.764) with 498,235 cases, South Dakota (0.255) with 237,246 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.220) with 15,726 cases, Montana (0.214) with 272,796 cases, and North Carolina (0.138) with 2,634,007 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 125 of the last 212 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 156 of the last 349 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 51 of the last 107 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00209 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00170. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 10 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 50 of the last 54 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 60 of last 65 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 7, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.420) with 498,322 cases, Oklahoma (0.245) with1,035,300 cases, Minnesota (0.209) with 1,432,617 cases, Guam (0.182) with 47,514 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.182) with 303,472 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 126 of the last 213 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 374 of the last 608 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 39 of the last 93 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 157 of the last 350 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00220 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00209. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 20 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 51 of the last 55 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 61 of last 66 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 81 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut