Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 8, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.284) with 498,414 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.233) with 15,764 cases, New Hampshire (0.220) with 303,755 cases, Minnesota (0.185) with 1,433,225 cases, and Kansas (0.119) with 770,977 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 127 of the last 214 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 158 of the last 351 days. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 25 of the last 71 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 375 of the last 609 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00239 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00220. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 18 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 52 of the last 56 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 62 of last 67 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 82 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[BlackBart]

What have you learned about this new "BA.2" sub-variant? I just heard this this morning -

[volvolugnut]

What I think I know about BA.2: But, I have not studied it in detail.
It is spreading quickly in the North East states, but not so much in the center of the US.
It may be more contagious, but not as serious.
It is already common in Europe.
Overall the US new case count is flat, but going up in some states while down in others.
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 9, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Arkansas (0.047) with 833,655 cases, Delaware (0.045) with 259,118 cases, Guam (0.039) with 47,553 cases, Texas (0.029) with 6,774,621 cases, and New Jersey (0.024) with 2,213,874 cases. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 252 of the last 595 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 40 of the last 94 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00106 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00239. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 44 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. Yesterday the active case count dropped by about 2/3. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 53 of the last 57 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 63 of last 68 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 82 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 10, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.368) with 156,264 cases, West Virginia (0.288) with 498,414 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.229) with 15,764 cases, Minnesota (0.140) with 1,433,225 cases, and New Hampshire (0.108) with 303,755 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 109 of the last 216 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 127 of the last 216 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 159 of the last 353 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 376 of the last 611 days. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 26 of the last 73 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00181 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00106. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 49 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. Yesterday the active case count dropped by about 80%. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 54 of the last 58 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 64 of last 69 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 82 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (April 3 to April 9, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph showed a slight increase in the past week and shifted into the positive range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day count decreased the past week. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 484 days.

The Growth Rate of new cases rose slightly the past week but is still lower than July 2021. This week the Average Growth Rate was 0.0016 and in June 2021 it was 0.0018.

In short, new cases are very low, but are not falling. The change in direction of the 7, 14. and 21 day counts indicate a new change may be coming.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 11, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.368) with 156,264 cases, West Virginia (0.276) with 498,542 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.206) with 15,784 cases, Minnesota (0.147) with 1,433,898 cases, and New Hampshire (0.104) with 304,365 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 110 of the last 217 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 128 of the last 217 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 160 of the last 354 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 377 of the last 612 days. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 27 of the last 74 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00204 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00181. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 24 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 55 of the last 59 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 65 of last 70 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 82 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 12, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.266) with 498,618 cases, Minnesota (0.150) with 1,435,232 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.131) with 15,801 cases, Montana (0.109) with 272,979 cases, and New Hampshire (0.100) with 304,503 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 129 of the last 218 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 378 of the last 613 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 161 of the last 355 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 52 of the last 113 days. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 28 of the last 75 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00273 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00204. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 14 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 56 of the last 60 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 66 of last 71 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 82 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 13, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.168) with 498,643 cases, Minnesota (0.159) with 1,435,914 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.142) with 15,836 cases, New Hampshire (0.108) with 304,793 cases, and Montana (0.098) with 273,002 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 130 of the last 219 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 379 of the last 614 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 162 of the last 356 days. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 29 of the last 76 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 53 of the last 114 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00343 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00273. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 11 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 56 of the last 61 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days. Growth rate for yesterday exceeded 0.003 for the US the first time since February 18, 2022.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 66 of last 71 days with decreasing active case numbers. Yesterday was the first increase in active case count since February 10. 2022.

There have now been 82 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 14, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.165) with 498,723 cases, Minnesota (0.160) with 1,436,766 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.155) with 15,872 cases, New Hampshire (0.109) with 305,119 cases, and Montana (0.100) with 273,057 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 131 of the last 220 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 380 of the last 615 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 163 of the last 357 days. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 30 of the last 77 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 54 of the last 115 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00376 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00343. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 19 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 56 of the last 62 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days. Growth rate for yesterday exceeded 0.003 for the US the second time since February 18, 2022.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 66 of last 72 days with decreasing active case numbers. Yesterday was the second increase in active case count since February 10. 2022. New Cases Count for yesterday (42,436) was the highest since March 4, 2022 when it was 45,698.

There have now been 82 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut