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volvolugnut
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 15 Apr 2022, 07:55
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for April 15, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.170) with 498,890 cases, Minnesota (0.162) with 1,437,638 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.122) with 15,874 cases, Montana (0.114) with 273,114 cases, and New Hampshire (0.098) with 305,411 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 132 of the last 221 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 381 of the last 616 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 164 of the last 358 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 55 of the last 116 days. New Hampshire has been in the top 5 states for 31 of the last 78 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00347 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00376. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 22 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

For 56 of the last 63 days the growth rate for the US has been below 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days. Growth rate for yesterday exceeded 0.003 for the US the third time since February 18, 2022.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 66 of last 74 days with decreasing active case numbers. Yesterday was the third increase in active case count since February 10. 2022.

There have now been 82 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 041522 A.png
State Growth 041522 A.png (110.96 KiB) Viewed 342 times
State Growth 041522 B.png
State Growth 041522 B.png (96.96 KiB) Viewed 342 times
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Mercedes: 2001 E320, 1973 280, 1974 280C, 1989 300E, 1988 300TE, 1979 300TD, parts cars.
2009 Smart Passion
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 16 Apr 2022, 08:03
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for April 16, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.170) with 498,890 cases, Minnesota (0.162) with 1,437,638 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.131) with 15,882 cases, Montana (0.114) with 273,114 cases, and Guam (0.103) with 47,725 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 133 of the last 222 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 382 of the last 617 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 165 of the last 359 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 56 of the last 117 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 41 of the last 101 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin have started reporting active cases, but I had not noticed the change. After another week of data, the calculated growth rate for these states will again be correct. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0112 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0347. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 47 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 67 of last 75 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 82 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 041622 A.png
State Growth 041622 A.png (109.18 KiB) Viewed 333 times
State Growth 041622 B.png
State Growth 041622 B.png (92.58 KiB) Viewed 333 times
The Fleet:
Volvo: 2001 V70 T5, 1986 244DL, 1983 245DL, 1975 245DL, 1959 PV544, multiple Volvo parts cars.
Mercedes: 2001 E320, 1973 280, 1974 280C, 1989 300E, 1988 300TE, 1979 300TD, parts cars.
2009 Smart Passion
Ford: 1977 F350, 1964 F150 (2), 1938 Tudor Sedan
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 11 Apr 2022, 11:45

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut
I have updated the graphs for the last week (April 10 to April 16, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph showed a slight increase in the past week and continued into the positive range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day count decreased the past week. The number of active case showed a dramatic drop this week, and the Days to Double and Growth Rate graph have a huge change as a result. The drop in number of active cases likely reflects changes in the method of count by some states.

In short, new cases are very low, but are not falling.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut
Attachments
Growth Rate Average 041722.png
Growth Rate Average 041722.png (35.85 KiB) Viewed 326 times
New Case Slope 041722.png
New Case Slope 041722.png (38.66 KiB) Viewed 326 times
Days to Double 041722.png
Days to Double 041722.png (48.47 KiB) Viewed 326 times
New Case Count Average 041722.png
New Case Count Average 041722.png (31.77 KiB) Viewed 326 times
Last edited by volvolugnut on 24 Apr 2022, 11:25, edited 1 time in total.
The Fleet:
Volvo: 2001 V70 T5, 1986 244DL, 1983 245DL, 1975 245DL, 1959 PV544, multiple Volvo parts cars.
Mercedes: 2001 E320, 1973 280, 1974 280C, 1989 300E, 1988 300TE, 1979 300TD, parts cars.
2009 Smart Passion
Ford: 1977 F350, 1964 F150 (2), 1938 Tudor Sedan
Farmall tractors: 1956 400 Diesel, 1946 A
And others.

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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 17 Apr 2022, 10:10
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for April 17, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.170) with 498,890 cases, Minnesota (0.162) with 1,437,638 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.131) with 15,882 cases, Montana (0.114) with 273,114 cases, and Guam (0.103) with 47,725 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 134 of the last 223 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 383 of the last 618 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 166 of the last 360 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 57 of the last 118 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 42 of the last 102 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin have started reporting active cases, but I had not noticed the change. After another week of data, the calculated growth rate for these states will again be correct. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00642 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0112. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 52 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 68 of last 76 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 82 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 041722 A.png
State Growth 041722 A.png (109.47 KiB) Viewed 318 times
State Growth 041722 B.png
State Growth 041722 B.png (91.65 KiB) Viewed 318 times
The Fleet:
Volvo: 2001 V70 T5, 1986 244DL, 1983 245DL, 1975 245DL, 1959 PV544, multiple Volvo parts cars.
Mercedes: 2001 E320, 1973 280, 1974 280C, 1989 300E, 1988 300TE, 1979 300TD, parts cars.
2009 Smart Passion
Ford: 1977 F350, 1964 F150 (2), 1938 Tudor Sedan
Farmall tractors: 1956 400 Diesel, 1946 A
And others.

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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 18 Apr 2022, 07:59
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for April 18, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.169) with 499,193 cases, Minnesota (0.162) with 1,438,566 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.129) with 15,905 cases, Montana (0.116) with 273,204 cases, and Guam (0.115) with 47,776 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 135 of the last 224 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 384 of the last 619 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 167 of the last 361 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 58 of the last 119 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 43 of the last 103 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin have started reporting active cases, but I had not noticed the change. After another week of data, the calculated growth rate for these states will again be correct. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0228 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00642. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 23 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 68 of last 77 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 82 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 041822 A.png
State Growth 041822 A.png (114.83 KiB) Viewed 308 times
State Growth 041822 B.png
State Growth 041822 B.png (95.61 KiB) Viewed 308 times
The Fleet:
Volvo: 2001 V70 T5, 1986 244DL, 1983 245DL, 1975 245DL, 1959 PV544, multiple Volvo parts cars.
Mercedes: 2001 E320, 1973 280, 1974 280C, 1989 300E, 1988 300TE, 1979 300TD, parts cars.
2009 Smart Passion
Ford: 1977 F350, 1964 F150 (2), 1938 Tudor Sedan
Farmall tractors: 1956 400 Diesel, 1946 A
And others.

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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 19 Apr 2022, 08:20
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for April 19, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.163) with 499,288 cases, Minnesota (0.158) with 1,440,303 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.133) with 15,928 cases, Guam (0.130) with 47,826 cases, and Montana (0.117) with 273,287 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 136 of the last 225 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 385 of the last 620 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 168 of the last 362 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 44 of the last 104 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 59 of the last 120 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin have started reporting active cases, but I had not noticed the change. After another week of data, the calculated growth rate for these states will again be correct. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0297 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0228. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 24 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have dropped in the last several weeks. There have been 68 of last 78 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 82 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 041922 A.png
State Growth 041922 A.png (115.1 KiB) Viewed 297 times
State Growth 041922 B.png
State Growth 041922 B.png (96.24 KiB) Viewed 297 times
The Fleet:
Volvo: 2001 V70 T5, 1986 244DL, 1983 245DL, 1975 245DL, 1959 PV544, multiple Volvo parts cars.
Mercedes: 2001 E320, 1973 280, 1974 280C, 1989 300E, 1988 300TE, 1979 300TD, parts cars.
2009 Smart Passion
Ford: 1977 F350, 1964 F150 (2), 1938 Tudor Sedan
Farmall tractors: 1956 400 Diesel, 1946 A
And others.

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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 20 Apr 2022, 08:51
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for April 20, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.321) with 156,392 cases, West Virginia (0.202) with 499,455 cases, Minnesota (0.158) with 1,441,279 cases, Guam (0.139) with 47,871 cases, and Montana (0.122) with 273,371 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 111 of the last 226 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 137 of the last 226 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 386 of the last 621 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 45 of the last 105 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 60 of the last 121 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin have started reporting active cases, but I had not noticed the change. After another week of data, the calculated growth rate for these states will again be correct. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0415 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0297. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 11 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 68 of last 79 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 82 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 042022 A.png
State Growth 042022 A.png (108.57 KiB) Viewed 295 times
State Growth 042022 B.png
State Growth 042022 B.png (98.55 KiB) Viewed 295 times
The Fleet:
Volvo: 2001 V70 T5, 1986 244DL, 1983 245DL, 1975 245DL, 1959 PV544, multiple Volvo parts cars.
Mercedes: 2001 E320, 1973 280, 1974 280C, 1989 300E, 1988 300TE, 1979 300TD, parts cars.
2009 Smart Passion
Ford: 1977 F350, 1964 F150 (2), 1938 Tudor Sedan
Farmall tractors: 1956 400 Diesel, 1946 A
And others.

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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 21 Apr 2022, 07:47
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for April 21, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.321) with 156,392 cases, West Virginia (0.199) with 499,619 cases, Minnesota (0.155) with 1,442,396 cases, U S Virgin Islands (0.154) with 16,030 cases, and Guam (0.135) with 47,902 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 112 of the last 227 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 138 of the last 227 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 387 of the last 622 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 169 of the last 364 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 46 of the last 106 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin have started reporting active cases, but I had not noticed the change. After another week of data, the calculated growth rate for these states will again be correct. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0389 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0415. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 20 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 68 of last 80 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 82 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 042122 A.png
State Growth 042122 A.png (115.02 KiB) Viewed 293 times
State Growth 042122 B.png
State Growth 042122 B.png (98.84 KiB) Viewed 293 times
The Fleet:
Volvo: 2001 V70 T5, 1986 244DL, 1983 245DL, 1975 245DL, 1959 PV544, multiple Volvo parts cars.
Mercedes: 2001 E320, 1973 280, 1974 280C, 1989 300E, 1988 300TE, 1979 300TD, parts cars.
2009 Smart Passion
Ford: 1977 F350, 1964 F150 (2), 1938 Tudor Sedan
Farmall tractors: 1956 400 Diesel, 1946 A
And others.

User avatar
volvolugnut
Posts: 6235
Joined: 19 January 2014
Year and Model: 2001 V70
Location: Oklahoma USA
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 22 Apr 2022, 08:46
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for April 22, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.321) with 156,392 cases, West Virginia (0.204) with 499,796 cases, U S Virgin Islands (0.195) with 16,091 cases, Minnesota (0.159) with 1,443,859 cases, and Guam (0.133) with 47,926 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 113 of the last 228 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 139 of the last 228 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 170 of the last 365 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 388 of the last 623 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 47 of the last 107 days.

Alabama, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin have started reporting active cases, but I had not noticed the change. After another week of data, the calculated growth rate for these states will again be correct. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0459 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0389. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 31 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 68 of last 81 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 82 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 042222 A.png
State Growth 042222 A.png (109.33 KiB) Viewed 289 times
State Growth 042222 B.png
State Growth 042222 B.png (95.29 KiB) Viewed 289 times
Last edited by volvolugnut on 26 Apr 2022, 08:04, edited 1 time in total.
The Fleet:
Volvo: 2001 V70 T5, 1986 244DL, 1983 245DL, 1975 245DL, 1959 PV544, multiple Volvo parts cars.
Mercedes: 2001 E320, 1973 280, 1974 280C, 1989 300E, 1988 300TE, 1979 300TD, parts cars.
2009 Smart Passion
Ford: 1977 F350, 1964 F150 (2), 1938 Tudor Sedan
Farmall tractors: 1956 400 Diesel, 1946 A
And others.

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volvolugnut
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Location: Oklahoma USA
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 23 Apr 2022, 08:41
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for April 23, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.321) with 156,392 cases, West Virginia (0.204) with 499,796 cases, U S Virgin Islands (0.186) with 16,091 cases, Minnesota (0.159) with 1,443,859 cases, and Guam (0.126) with 47,939 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 114 of the last 229 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 140 of the last 229 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 171 of the last 366 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 389 of the last 624 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 48 of the last 108 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0149 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0459. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 46 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 69 of last 82 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 82 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 042322 A.png
State Growth 042322 A.png (108.25 KiB) Viewed 287 times
State Growth 042322 B.png
State Growth 042322 B.png (92.1 KiB) Viewed 287 times
Last edited by volvolugnut on 26 Apr 2022, 08:04, edited 1 time in total.
The Fleet:
Volvo: 2001 V70 T5, 1986 244DL, 1983 245DL, 1975 245DL, 1959 PV544, multiple Volvo parts cars.
Mercedes: 2001 E320, 1973 280, 1974 280C, 1989 300E, 1988 300TE, 1979 300TD, parts cars.
2009 Smart Passion
Ford: 1977 F350, 1964 F150 (2), 1938 Tudor Sedan
Farmall tractors: 1956 400 Diesel, 1946 A
And others.

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