Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (April 17 to April 23, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph showed a slight increase in the past week and continued into the positive range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day count decreased the past week. The number of active case showed a dramatic drop last week, and the Days to Double and Growth Rate graph had a huge change as a result. The drop in number of active cases likely reflects changes in the method of count by some states.

New Case Count average rose slightly for the week.

In short, new cases are very low, but are rising again.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 24, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.321) with 156,392 cases, West Virginia (0.242) with 500,084 cases, U S Virgin Islands (0.186) with 16,091 cases, Minnesota (0.159) with 1,443,859 cases, and Puerto Rico (0.124) with 516,612 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 115 of the last 230 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 141 of the last 230 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 172 of the last 367 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 390 of the last 625 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0149 for yesterday, same from previous day of 0.0149. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 44 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 70 of last 83 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 82 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 25, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.321) with 156,392 cases, West Virginia (0.218) with 500,228 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.175) with 16,154 cases, Puerto Rico (0.115) with 516,832 cases, and Minnesota (0.109) with 1,445,017 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 116 of the last 231 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 142 of the last 231 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 173 of the last 368 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 391 of the last 626 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0297 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0149. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 23 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 70 of last 84 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 82 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 26, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.321) with 156,392 cases, West Virginia (0.266) with 500,444 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.203) with 16,202 cases, Minnesota (0.157) with 1,447,575 cases, and Guam (0.123) with 48,020 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 117 of the last 232 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 143 of the last 232 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 174 of the last 369 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 392 of the last 627 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 49 of the last 111 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0352 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0297. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 24 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 70 of last 85 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 82 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 26, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.271) with 500,697 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.204) with 16,260 cases, Minnesota (0.157) with 1,448,939 cases, Guam (0.131) with 48,067 cases, and Montana (0.126) with 273,788 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 144 of the last 233 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 175 of the last 370 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 393 of the last 628 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 50 of the last 112 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 61 of the last 128 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0472 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0352. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 8 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 70 of last 86 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 82 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 28, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.271) with 500,972 cases, Minnesota (0.158) with 1,450,575 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.156) with 16,306 cases, Montana (0.148) with 273,904 cases, and Guam (0.143) with 48,113 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 145 of the last 234 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 394 of the last 629 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 176 of the last 371 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 62 of the last 129 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 51 of the last 113 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0435 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0472. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 20 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 70 of last 87 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 82 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 29, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.262) with 501,204 cases, Minnesota (0.157) with 1,452,547 cases, Montana (0.145) with 273,882 cases, Guam (0.133) with 48,119 cases, and Wyoming (0.126) with 156,550 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 146 of the last 235 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 395 of the last 630 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 63 of the last 130 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 52 of the last 114 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 118 of the last 235 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0480 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0435. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 20 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 70 of last 88 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 83 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 30, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.262) with 501,204 cases, Minnesota (0.157) with 1,452,547 cases, Montana (0.145) with 273,982 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.132) with 16,349 cases, and Guam (0.131) with 48,132 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 147 of the last 236 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 396 of the last 631 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 64 of the last 131 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 177 of the last 373 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 53 of the last 115 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0182 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0480. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 45 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 71 of last 89 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 83 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (April 24 to April 30, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph showed a slight increase in the past week and continued into the positive range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day count decreased the past week. The number of active case showed a dramatic drop a couple weeks ago, and the Days to Double and Growth Rate graph had a huge change as a result. The drop in number of active cases likely reflects changes in the method of count by some states.

New Case Count average rose slightly for the week, but rose 29% from the week before.

In short, new cases are very low, but are rising again.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 1, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.224) with 501,204 cases, Minnesota (0.157) with 1,452,547 cases, Montana (0.145) with 273,982 cases, Guam (0.133) with 48,142 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.132) with 16,349 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 148 of the last 237 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 397 of the last 632 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 65 of the last 132 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 54 of the last 116 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 178 of the last 374 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0121 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0182. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 50 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 72 of last 90 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 83 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut