Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 2, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.222) with 501,743 cases, Montana (0.161) with 274,134 cases, Minnesota (0.158) with 1,454,278 cases, Guam (0.136) with 48,186 cases, and Wyoming (0.126) with 156,550 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 149 of the last 238 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 66 of the last 133 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 398 of the last 633 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 55 of the last 117 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 119 of the last 238 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0304 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0121. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 21 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 72 of last 91 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 83 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 3, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.211) with 501,968 cases, Montana (0.161) with 274,265 cases, Minnesota (0.142) with 1,456,778 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.141) with 16,481 cases, and Guam (0.135) with 48,254 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 150 of the last 239 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 67 of the last 134 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 399 of the last 634 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 179 of the last 376 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 56 of the last 118 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0378 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0304. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 22 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 72 of last 92 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 83 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 24% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 4, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.317) with 16,918 cases, West Virginia (0.196) with 502,192 cases, Montana (0.157) with 274,388 cases, Minnesota (0.154) with 1,459,345 cases, and North Dakota (0.120) with 241,127 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 180 of the last 377 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 151 of the last 240 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 68 of the last 135 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 400 of the last 635 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0504 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0378. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 10 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 72 of last 93 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 83 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 5, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.315) with 17,012 cases, West Virginia (0.207) with 502,566 cases, Minnesota (0.154) with 1,461,622 cases, Montana (0.144) with 274,481 cases, and North Dakota (0.120) with 241,127 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 181 of the last 378 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 152 of the last 241 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 401 of the last 636 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 69 of the last 136 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0445 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0504. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 21 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 72 of last 94 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 83 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 6, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.344) with 17,167 cases, West Virginia (0.221) with 502,930 cases, Minnesota (0.150) with 1,463,955 cases, Montana (0.148) with 274,598 cases, and New Hampshire (0.111) with 313,288 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 182 of the last 379 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 153 of the last 242 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 402 of the last 637 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 70 of the last 137 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0500 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0445. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 21 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 72 of last 95 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 83 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 7, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.326) with 17,167 cases, West Virginia (0.221) with 502,930 cases, Minnesota (0.150) with 1,463,955 cases, Montana (0.148) with 274,598 cases, and New Hampshire (0.111) with 313,288 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 183 of the last 380 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 154 of the last 243 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 403 of the last 638 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 71 of the last 138 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0195 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0500. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 47 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 72 of last 96 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 83 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (May 1 to May 7, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph showed a slight increase in the past week and continued into the positive range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day count decreased the past week. The number of active case showed a dramatic drop a couple weeks ago, and the Days to Double and Growth Rate graph had a huge change as a result. The drop in number of active cases likely reflects changes in the method of count by some states.

New Case Count average rose for the week, up 20% from the week before.

In short, new cases are very low, but are rising again.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut
[/quote]

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 8, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.326) with 17,167 cases, West Virginia (0.221) with 502,930 cases, Minnesota (0.150) with 1,463,955 cases, Montana (0.148) with 274,598 cases, and New York (0.111) with 5,398,251 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 184 of the last 381 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 155 of the last 244 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 404 of the last 639 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 72 of the last 139 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0107 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0195. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 52 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 73 of last 97 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 83 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

I posted the first list ranking states by Covid-19 infection growth rate on March 26, 2020. It has been nearly 26 months since then of ups and downs in daily infections. Reporting is changing lately with many states reporting only once per week. Over 25% of the US population has reported to have had a positive test result for Covid-19 and many more were not reported since home tests became available. Since Matt started this thread, there have been 1608 posts and 102,848 views of the thread. There have been about 50 to 100 viewings on recent days.
I intend to continue my daily reporting until information is not available or new cases become insignificant. I hope you find this information useful or of interest. You comments are welcomed.
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 9, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.339) with 17,353 cases, West Virginia (0.226) with 503,807 cases, Minnesota (0.153) with 1,466,615 cases, New York (0.111) with 5,409,058 cases, and Montana (0.107) with 274,598 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 185 of the last 382 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 156 of the last 245 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 405 of the last 640 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 73 of the last 140 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0315 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0107. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 24 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 73 of last 98 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 83 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut