Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 10, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.303) with 17,485 cases, West Virginia (0.188) with 503,807 cases, Minnesota (0.169) with 1,471,731 cases, New York (0.108) with 5,415,424 cases, and North Dakota (0.102) with 241,916 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 186 of the last 383 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 157 of the last 246 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 406 of the last 641 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0365 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0315. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 26 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 73 of last 99 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 83 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 11, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

I have made a change starting, April 11, 2022, to the state reporting. The leading growth rate states will be reported for the 7 day growth rate average instead of single day over day growth. Since many states are only reporting once per week, this will be a better indication of change.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.224) with 504,410 cases, Minnesota (0.148) with 1,473,521 cases, North Dakota (0.129) with 242,065 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.122) with 17,672 cases, and New York (0.107) with 5,425,897 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 158 of the last 247 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 407 of the last 642 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 4 of the last 8 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 187 of the last 384 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0516 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0365. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 10 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 73 of last 100 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 83 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 12, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.215) with 505,037 cases, North Dakota (0.153) with 242,222 cases, Minnesota (0.144) with 1,476,133 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.122) with 17,835 cases, and Guam (0.115) with 48,469 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 159 of the last 248 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 5 of the last 9 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 408 of the last 643 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 188 of the last 385 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 57 of the last 127 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0471 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0516. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 20 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 73 of last 101 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 84 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 13, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.206) with 505,528 cases, Minnesota (0.142) with 1,479,047 cases, North Dakota (0.124) with 242,462 cases, Guam (0.120) with 48,496 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.117) with 18,037 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 160 of the last 249 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 409 of the last 644 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 6 of the last 10 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 58 of the last 128 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 189 of the last 386 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0466 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0471. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 20 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 73 of last 102 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 84 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 14, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.206) with 505,528 cases, Minnesota (0.142) with 1,479,047 cases, North Dakota (0.124) with 242,462 cases, Guam (0.120) with 48,496 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.117) with 18,037 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 161 of the last 250 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 410 of the last 645 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 7 of the last 11 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 59 of the last 129 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 190 of the last 387 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0138 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0466. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 48 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 74 of last 103 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 84 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (May 8 to May 14, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph showed a slight increase in the past week and continued into the positive range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day count were flat the past week. The number of active case showed a dramatic drop a couple weeks ago, and the Days to Double and Growth Rate graph had a huge change as a result. The drop in number of active cases likely reflects changes in the method of count by some states.

New Case Count average rose for the week, up 16% from the week before.

In short, new cases are still low, but are rising again.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 15, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.206) with 505,528 cases, Minnesota (0.142) with 1,479,047 cases, North Dakota (0.124) with 242,462 cases, Guam (0.120) with 48,496 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.117) with 18,037 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 162 of the last 251 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 411 of the last 646 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 8 of the last 12 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 60 of the last 130 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 191 of the last 388 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0110 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0138. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 48 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 75 of last 104 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 84 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 16, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.203) with 506,833 cases, Minnesota (0.136) with 1,481,627 cases, North Dakota (0.124) with 242,462 cases, Guam (0.120) with 48,542 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.112) with 18,243 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 163 of the last 252 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 412 of the last 647 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 9 of the last 13 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 61 of the last 131 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 192 of the last 389 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0338 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0110. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 26 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 75 of last 105 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 84 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 17, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.232) with 507,238 cases, Guam (0.134) with 48,588 cases, Minnesota (0.122) with 1,486,208 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.121) with 18,425 cases, and North Dakota (0.120) with 242,654 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 164 of the last 253 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 62 of the last 132 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 413 of the last 648 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 193 of the last 390 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 10 of the last 14 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0376 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0338. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 22 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 75 of last 106 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 84 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 18, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.192) with 507,678 cases, North Dakota (0.131) with 242,893 cases, Guam (0.126) with 48,611 cases, Minnesota (0.123) with 1,488,325 cases, and Nebraska (0.123) with 485,409 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 165 of the last 254 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 11 of the last 15 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 63 of the last 133 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 414 of the last 649 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0503 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0376. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 7 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 75 of last 107 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 84 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut