Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 19, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.203) with 508,538 cases, Guam (0.136) with 48,666 cases, North Dakota (0.127) with 243,055 cases, Nebraska (0.118) with 483,783 cases, and Minnesota (0.117) with 1,490,445 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 166 of the last 255 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 64 of the last 134 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 12 of the last 16 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 415 of the last 650 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0396 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0503. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 7 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 75 of last 108 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 84 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 20, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.205) with 509,251 cases, Montana (0.181) with 276,192 cases, Guam (0.132) with 48,688 cases, Nebraska (0.116) with 484,085 cases, and Minnesota (0.112) with 1,492,863 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 167 of the last 256 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 74 of the last 151 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 65 of the last 135 days. Nebraska has been in the top 5 states for 3 of the last 3 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 416 of the last 651 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0433 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0396. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 20 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 75 of last 109 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 84 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 21, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.205) with 509,251 cases, Montana (0.181) with 276,192 cases, Guam (0.132) with 48,688 cases, North Dakota (0.127) with 243,345 cases, and Nebraska (0.116) with 484,085 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 168 of the last 257 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 75 of the last 152 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 66 of the last 136 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 12 of the last 18 days. Nebraska has been in the top 5 states for 4 of the last 4 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0170 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0433. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 45 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 75 of last 110 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 84 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (May 15 to May 21, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph showed a slight increase in the past week and continued into the positive range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day count were flat the past week. The number of active case showed a dramatic drop a couple weeks ago, and the Days to Double and Growth Rate graph had a huge change as a result. The drop in number of active cases likely reflects changes in the method of count by some states.

New Case Count average rose for the week, up 27% from the week before.

In short, new cases are still low, but are rising again.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut
[/quote]

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 22, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.205) with 509,251 cases, Montana (0.181) with 276,192 cases, Guam (0.132) with 48,688 cases, North Dakota (0.127) with 243,345 cases, and Nebraska (0.116) with 484,085 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 169 of the last 258 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 76 of the last 153 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 67 of the last 137 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 13 of the last 19 days. Nebraska has been in the top 5 states for 5 of the last 5 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00843 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0170. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 48 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 76 of last 111 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 85 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 23, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.225) with 511,382 cases, Montana (0.181) with 276,192 cases, Guam (0.151) with 48,762 cases, North Dakota (0.127) with 243,345 cases, and Nebraska (0.116) with 484,085 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 170 of the last 259 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 77 of the last 154 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 68 of the last 138 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 14 of the last 20 days. Nebraska has been in the top 5 states for 6 of the last 6 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0227 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00843. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 21 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 76 of last 112 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 85 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 24, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Washington (0.196) with 1,559,662 cases, Montana (0.181) with 276,192 cases, Guam (0.163) with 48,827 cases, Minnesota (0.107) with 1,499,038 cases, and Arkansas (0.099) with 841,119 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 78 of the last 155 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 69 of the last 139 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 416 of the last 655 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0317 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0227. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 25 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 76 of last 113 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 85 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 25, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Wisconsin (0.210) with 1,664,367 cases, Montana (0.181) with 276,192 cases, Guam (0.172) with 48,865 cases, West Virginia (0.163) with 512,571 cases, and Minnesota (0.104) with 1,500,556 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 79 of the last 156 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 70 of the last 140 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 171 of the last 261 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 417 of the last 656 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0414 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0317. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 10 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 76 of last 114 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 85 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 26, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Wisconsin (0.209) with 1,667,020 cases, Montana (0.181) with 276,192 cases, Guam (0.159) with 48,907 cases, West Virginia (0.143) with 513,305 cases, and Minnesota (0.108) with 1,502,718 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 80 of the last 157 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 71 of the last 141 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 172 of the last 262 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 418 of the last 657 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0342 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0414. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 21 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 76 of last 115 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 85 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 27, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Wisconsin (0.209) with 1,669,592 cases, Guam (0.180) with 48,968 cases, Montana (0.150) with 277,497 cases, West Virginia (0.135) with 513,953 cases, and Minnesota (0.110) with 1,504,982 cases. Wisconsin has been in the top 5 states for 3 of the last 3 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 72 of the last 142 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 81 of the last 158 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 173 of the last 263 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 419 of the last 658 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0378 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0342. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 21 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 76 of last 116 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 85 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut