Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 28, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Wisconsin (0.209) with 1,669,592 cases, Guam (0.180) with 48,968 cases, Montana (0.150) with 277,497 cases, West Virginia (0.135) with 513,953 cases, and Minnesota (0.110) with 1,504,982 cases. Wisconsin has been in the top 5 states for 4 of the last 4 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 73 of the last 143 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 82 of the last 159 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 174 of the last 264 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 420 of the last 659 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00434 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0378. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 53 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 77 of last 117 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 85 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 29, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Wisconsin (0.209) with 1,669,592 cases, Guam (0.180) with 48,968 cases, Montana (0.150) with 277,497 cases, West Virginia (0.135) with 513,953 cases, and Minnesota (0.110) with 1,504,982 cases. Wisconsin has been in the top 5 states for 5 of the last 5 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 74 of the last 144 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 83 of the last 160 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 175 of the last 265 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 421 of the last 660 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00179 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00434. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 55 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 78 of last 118 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 85 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 30, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Wisconsin (0.212) with 1,674,534 cases, Montana (0.150) with 277,497 cases, Guam (0.133) with 48,968 cases, Arkansas (0.096) with 843,183 cases, and Minnesota (0.094) with 1,504,982 cases. Wisconsin has been in the top 5 states for 6 of the last 6 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 84 of the last 161 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 75 of the last 145 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 422 of the last 661 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00266 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00179. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 53 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 79 of last 119 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 85 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (May 16 to May 28, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph showed a slight decrease in the past week, but continued in the positive range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day count were up slightly the past week. The number of active case showed a dramatic drop a couple weeks ago, and the Days to Double and Growth Rate graph had a huge change as a result. This drop in number of active cases likely reflects changes in the method of count by some states.

New Case Count average dropped for the week. This was the first drop in 7 weeks.
Growth Rate Average also dropped sharply for the week.

The drop in new cases may be the holiday effect, or we may be seeing a flattening of cases.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for May 31, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Wisconsin (0.183) with 1,675,581 cases, Montana (0.150) with 277,497 cases, North Dakota (0.128) with 244,571 cases, West Virginia (0.107) with 515,925 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.102) with 19,817 cases. Wisconsin has been in the top 5 states for 7 of the last 7 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 85 of the last 162 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 15 of the last 28 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 176 of the last 267 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 194 of the last 405 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0173 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00266. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 26 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 79 of last 120 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 85 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 1, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.150) with 277,497 cases, West Virginia (0.147) with 516,553 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.121) with 19,971 cases, Guam (0.112) with 49,156 cases, and North Dakota (0.089) with 244,638 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 86 of the last 163 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 177 of the last 268 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 195 of the last 406 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 76 of the last 147 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 16 of the last 29 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0361 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0173. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 10 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 79 of last 121 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 86 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 2, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.150) with 277,497 cases, West Virginia (0.145) with 517,249 cases, Guam (0.136) with 49,262 cases, Minnesota (0.134) with 1,513,760 cases, and North Dakota (0.106) with 244,938 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 87 of the last 164 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 178 of the last 269 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 77 of the last 148 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 423 of the last 664 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 17 of the last 30 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0295 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0361. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 21 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 79 of last 122 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 86 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 3, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.159) with 518,061 cases, Montana (0.137) with 278,993 cases, Minnesota (0.133) with 1,515,724 cases, Guam (0.126) with 49,324 cases, and North Dakota (0.111) with 245,196 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 179 of the last 270 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 88 of the last 165 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 424 of the last 665 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 78 of the last 149 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 18 of the last 31 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0363 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0295. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 22 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 79 of last 123 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 86 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 4, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.159) with 518,061 cases, Montana (0.137) with 278,993 cases, Minnesota (0.133) with 1,515,724 cases, North Dakota (0.133) with 245,476 cases, and Guam (0.126) with 49,324 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 180 of the last 271 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 89 of the last 166 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 425 of the last 666 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 19 of the last 32 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 79 of the last 150 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0156 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0363. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 44 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 80 of last 124 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 86 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (May 29 to June 4, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph showed a sharp decrease in the past week, and moved into the negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day count were up slightly the past week. The number of active case showed a dramatic drop a couple weeks ago, and the Days to Double and Growth Rate graph had a huge change as a result. This drop in number of active cases likely reflects changes in the method of count by some states.

New Case Count average dropped for the week. This was the second week for a drop.
Growth Rate Average also dropped sharply for the week.

The drop in new cases may be the holiday effect, or we may be seeing a flattening of cases. Next week should give a clearer picture.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut