Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 5, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.159) with 518,061 cases, Montana (0.137) with 278,993 cases, Minnesota (0.133) with 1,515,724 cases, North Dakota (0.133) with 245,476 cases, and Guam (0.126) with 49,324 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 181 of the last 272 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 90 of the last 167 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 426 of the last 667 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 20 of the last 33 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 80 of the last 151 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00663 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00156. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 52 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 81 of last 125 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 86 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 25% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 6, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.180) with 519,762 cases, Minnesota (0.155) with 1,517,876 cases, Montana (0.137) with 278,993 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.134) with 20,229 cases, and North Dakota (0.133) with 245,476 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 182 of the last 273 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 427 of the last 668 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 91 of the last 168 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 195 of the last 411 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 21 of the last 34 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0188 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00663. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 28 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 81 of last 126 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 86 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 7, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.192) with 520,264 cases, Minnesota (0.177) with 1,521,933 cases, Guam (0.157) with 49,568 cases, Montana (0.137) with 278,993 cases, and North Dakota (0.130) with 245,954 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 183 of the last 274 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 428 of the last 669 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 81 of the last 153 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 92 of the last 169 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 22 of the last 35 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0277 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0188. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 24 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 81 of last 127 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 86 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 8, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.189) with 520,896 cases, Minnesota (0.177) with 1,523,307 cases, Guam (0.163) with 49,718 cases, Montana (0.137) with 278,993 cases, and North Dakota (0.134) with 246,102 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 184 of the last 275 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 429 of the last 670 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 82 of the last 154 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 93 of the last 170 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 23 of the last 36 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0324 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0277. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 10 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 81 of last 128 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 86 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 9, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.183) with 521,543 cases, Montana (0.137) with 278,993 cases, Guam (0.131) with 49,779 cases, Minnesota (0.124) with 1,525,118 cases, and Arkansas (0.114) with 848,474 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 185 of the last 276 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 94 of the last 171 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 83 of the last 155 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 430 of the last 671 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0259 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0324. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 23 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 81 of last 129 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 87 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 10, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.162) with 522,061 cases, Montana (0.155) with 280,965 cases, Guam (0.154) with 49,935 cases, Minnesota (0.126) with 1,527,145 cases, and North Dakota (0.113) with 246,544 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 186 of the last 277 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 95 of the last 172 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 84 of the last 156 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 431 of the last 672 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 24 of the last 38 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0299 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0259. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 20 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 81 of last 130 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 87 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 11, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.162) with 522,061 cases, Montana (0.155) with 280,965 cases, Guam (0.154) with 49,935 cases, Minnesota (0.126) with 1,527,145 cases, and Arkansas (0.106) with 849,754 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 187 of the last 278 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 96 of the last 173 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 85 of the last 157 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 432 of the last 673 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0124 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0299. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 45 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 82 of last 131 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 87 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 12, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.162) with 522,061 cases, Montana (0.155) with 280,965 cases, Guam (0.154) with 49,935 cases, Minnesota (0.126) with 1,527,145 cases, and Arkansas (0.107) with 850,203 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 188 of the last 279 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 97 of the last 174 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 86 of the last 158 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 433 of the last 674 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00513 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0124. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 52 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 83 of last 132 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 87 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for June 13, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.161) with 523,367 cases, Guam (0.157) with 50,120 cases, Montana (0.155) with 280,965 cases, Minnesota (0.120) with 1,528,694 cases, and Arkansas (0.109) with 850,535 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 189 of the last 280 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 87 of the last 159 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 98 of the last 175 days. Minnesota has been in the top 5 states for 434 of the last 675 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 4 of the last 5 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0158 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00513. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 28 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 83 of last 133 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 87 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (June 5 to June 11, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph was flat from the past week, and still in the negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day count was down from last week. The 14 day and 21 day count were up slightly the past week. New Case Count average increase slightly for the week. Growth Rate Average increased slightly for the week.

The drop in new cases appears to have been the holiday effect, and we again have an increase in the number of cases.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut