Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 2, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.199) with 533,213 cases, Guam (0.157) with 52,067 cases, Wyoming (0.135) with 164,456 cases, Montana (0.134) with 287,145 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.119) with 20,960 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 208 of the last 299 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 106 of the last 178 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 115 of the last 194 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 9 of the last 10 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00441 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0302. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 53 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 91 of last 152 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 89 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (June 26 to July 2, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph was down from the past week, and crossed back into nagitive range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, and 21 day count were up slightly the past week, while the 14 day was down slightly. New Case Count average decreased slightly for the week. Growth Rate Average decreased for the week.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 3, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.199) with 533,213 cases, Guam (0.157) with 52,067 cases, Wyoming (0.135) with 164,456 cases, Montana (0.134) with 287,145 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.119) with 20,960 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 209 of the last 300 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 107 of the last 179 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 5 of the last 5 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 116 of the last 195 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 10 of the last 11 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00292 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00441. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 53 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 92 of last 153 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 89 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 4, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.182) with 533,213 cases, Guam (0.151) with 52,067 cases, Wyoming (0.135) with 164,456 cases, Montana (0.134) with 287,145 cases, and New York (0.096) with 5,802,499 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 210 of the last 301 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 108 of the last 180 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 6 of the last 6 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 117 of the last 196 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00401 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00292. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 48 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 93 of last 154 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 89 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 4, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.170) with 52,363 cases, West Virginia (0.164) with 535,208 cases, Wyoming (0.135) with 164,456 cases, Montana (0.134) with 287,145 cases, and New York (0.100) with 5,808,493 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 109 of the last 181 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 211 of the last 302 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 7 of the last 7 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 118 of the last 197 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0141 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00401. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 31 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 93 of last 155 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 89 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 26% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 6, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.156) with 52,517 cases, West Virginia (0.154) with 535,776 cases, Wyoming (0.149) with 165,619 cases, Montana (0.134) with 287,145 cases, and New York (0.097) with 5,813,635 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 110 of the last 182 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 212 of the last 303 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 8 of the last 8 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 119 of the last 198 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0276 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0141. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 14 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 93 of last 156 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 89 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 27% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 7, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.163) with 536,573 cases, Wyoming (0.149) with 165,619 cases, Guam (0.149) with 52,644 cases, Montana (0.134) with 287,145 cases, and New York (0.099) with 5,819,830 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 213 of the last 304 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 9 of the last 9 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 111 of the last 183 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 120 of the last 199 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 4 of the last 4 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0269 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0276. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 23 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 94 of last 157 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 89 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 27% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 8, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.174) with 537,443 cases, Wyoming (0.149) with 165,619 cases, Guam (0.140) with 52,823 cases, Montana (0.128) with 289,345 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.116) with 21,103 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 214 of the last 305 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 10 of the last 10 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 112 of the last 184 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 121 of the last 200 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 11 of the last 16 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0318 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0269. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 23 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 94 of last 158 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 90 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 27% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 9, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.174) with 537,443 cases, Wyoming (0.149) with 165,619 cases, Guam (0.140) with 52,823 cases, Montana (0.128) with 289,345 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.116) with 21,103 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 215 of the last 306 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 11 of the last 11 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 113 of the last 185 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 122 of the last 201 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 12 of the last 17 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00886 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0318. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 51 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 95 of last 159 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 90 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 27% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (July 3 to July 9, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph was down slightly from the past week, and continued in negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day count were up slightly the past week. New Case Count average decreased slightly for the week. Growth Rate Average decreased for the week.

Note that last week contained a holiday and there is often a drop in numbers during a holiday week. This is likely because fewer cases are reported than the actual number of cases.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut