Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 28, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.209) with 554,215 cases, Wyoming (0.150) with 170,032 cases, Montana (0.115) with 294,340 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.110) with 21,734 cases, and North Dakota (0.095) with 256,545 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 234 of the last 325 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 29 of the last 30 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 140 of the last 220 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 30 of the last 36 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 38 of the last 86 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0237 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0301. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 23 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 101 of last 178 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 92 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 27% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 29, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.203) with 555,107 cases, Wyoming (0.150) with 170,032 cases, Montana (0.147) with 296,599 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.119) with 21,775 cases, and North Dakota (0.099) with 256,946 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 235 of the last 326 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 30 of the last 31 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 141 of the last 221 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 31 of the last 37 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 39 of the last 87 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0250 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0237. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 24 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 101 of last 179 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 93 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 27% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 30, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.203) with 555,107 cases, Wyoming (0.150) with 170,032 cases, Montana (0.147) with 296,599 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.119) with 21,775 cases, and North Dakota (0.099) with 256,946 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 236 of the last 327 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 31 of the last 32 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 142 of the last 222 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 32 of the last 38 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 40 of the last 88 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00393 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0250. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 52 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 102 of last 180 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 93 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 27% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for July 31, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.203) with 555,107 cases, Wyoming (0.150) with 170,032 cases, Montana (0.147) with 296,599 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.119) with 21,775 cases, and North Dakota (0.099) with 256,946 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 237 of the last 328 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 32 of the last 33 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 143 of the last 223 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 33 of the last 39 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 41 of the last 89 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00315 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00393. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 53 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 103 of last 181 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 93 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 27% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Aug 1, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.215) with 557,371 cases, Wyoming (0.150) with 170,032 cases, Montana (0.147) with 296,599 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.127) with 21,819 cases, and North Dakota (0.099) with 257,331 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 238 of the last 329 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 33 of the last 34 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 144 of the last 224 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 34 of the last 40 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 42 of the last 90 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0143 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00315. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 29 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 103 of last 182 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 93 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 28% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Aug 2, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.214) with 558,300 cases, Wyoming (0.150) with 170,032 cases, Montana (0.147) with 296,599 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.141) with 21,869 cases, and Guam (0.093) with 55,624 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 239 of the last 330 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 34 of the last 35 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 145 of the last 225 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 35 of the last 41 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0159 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0143. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 35 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 104 of last 183 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 93 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 28% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (July 24 to July 30, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph was up from the past week, and continued in positive range. The Days to Double for the 7 day and 14 day were up slightly and 21 day Days to Double was down slightly the past week. New Case Count average decreased slightly for the week. Growth Rate Average decreased slightly for the week.

The past several weeks have had little change in any of the measurements.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Aug 3, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.208) with 559,295 cases, Montana (0.147) with 296,599 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.142) with 21,921 cases, Wyoming (0.136) with 171,322 cases, and New York (0.086) with 6,014,632 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 240 of the last 331 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 146 of the last 226 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 36 of the last 42 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 35 of the last 36 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0263 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0159. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 15 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 104 of last 184 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 93 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 28% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Aug 4, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.198) with 560,263 cases, Montana (0.147) with 296,599 cases, Wyoming (0.136) with 171,322 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.123) with 21,944 cases, and New York (0.086) with 6,022,078 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 241 of the last 332 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 147 of the last 227 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 36 of the last 37 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 37 of the last 43 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0218 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0263. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 22 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 105 of last 185 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 93 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 28% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Aug 5, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.207) with 561,275 cases, Wyoming (0.136) with 171,322 cases, Montana (0.116) with 298,746 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.107) with 21,957 cases, and New York (0.089) with 6,029,349 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 242 of the last 333 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 37 of the last 38 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 148 of the last 228 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 38 of the last 44 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0237 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0218. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 23 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 105 of last 186 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 93 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 28% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

As the table has expanded, it has become harder to read. You may want to copy the image, paste to another screen. like Word, and increase the size.

volvolugnut