Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (Aug 7 to Aug 13, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph was down from the past week, and continued in negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day Days to Double were up slightly the past week. New Case Count average decreased slightly for the week. Growth Rate Average decreased for the fourth week in a row.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut
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[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Aug 15, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.203) with 569,322 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.143) with 22,196 cases, Wyoming (0.127) with 172,473 cases, Montana (0.116) with 300,607 cases, and North Dakota (0.085) with 260,778 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 252 of the last 343 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 48 of the last 54 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 47 of the last 48 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 158 of the last 238 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 49 of the last 104 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0101 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00241. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 32 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 112 of last 196 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 94 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 28% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Aug 16, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.197) with 570,094 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.158) with 22,225 cases, Wyoming (0.127) with 172,473 cases, Montana (0.116) with 300,607 cases, and New York (0.082) with 6,086,641 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 253 of the last 344 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 49 of the last 55 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 48 of the last 49 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 159 of the last 239 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 7 of the last 14 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0147 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0101. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 29 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 113 of last 197 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 94 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 28% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Aug 17, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.198) with 571,075 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.156) with 22,278 cases, Wyoming (0.126) with 173,487 cases, Montana (0.116) with 300,607 cases, and New York (0.086) with 6,093,744 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 254 of the last 345 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 50 of the last 56 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 49 of the last 50 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 160 of the last 240 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 8 of the last 15 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0239 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0147. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 13 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 113 of last 198 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 95 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 28% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Aug 18, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.199) with 571,993 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.147) with 22,300 cases, Wyoming (0.126) with 173,487 cases, Montana (0.116) with 300,607 cases, and New York (0.085) with 6,100,073 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 255 of the last 346 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 51 of the last 57 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 50 of the last 51 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 161 of the last 241 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 9 of the last 16 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0184 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0239. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 24 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 114 of last 199 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 95 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 28% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Aug 19, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.196) with 572,854 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.147) with 22,300 cases, Wyoming (0.126) with 173,487 cases, Montana (0.126) with 302,455 cases, and Guam (0.095) with 57,206 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 256 of the last 347 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 52 of the last 58 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 51 of the last 52 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 162 of the last 242 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0204 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0184. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 24 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 114 of last 200 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 95 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 28% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Aug 20, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.196) with 572,854 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.129) with 22,300 cases, Wyoming (0.126) with 173,487 cases, Montana (0.126) with 302,455 cases, and Guam (0.095) with 57,206 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 257 of the last 348 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 53 of the last 59 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 52 of the last 53 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 163 of the last 243 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00167 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0204. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 53 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 115 of last 201 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 95 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 28% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Aug 21, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.196) with 572,854 cases, Wyoming (0.126) with 173,487 cases, Montana (0.126) with 302,455 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.111) with 22,300 cases, and Guam (0.095) with 57,206 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 258 of the last 349 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 53 of the last 54 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 164 of the last 244 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 54 of the last 60 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00255 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00167. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 54 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 116 of last 202 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 95 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 28% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Aug 22, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.198) with 574,724 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.127) with 22,393 cases, Wyoming (0.126) with 173,487 cases, Montana (0.126) with 302,455 cases, and Guam (0.123) with 57,361 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 259 of the last 350 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 55 of the last 61 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 54 of the last 55 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 165 of the last 245 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0101 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00255. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 31 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 117 of last 203 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 95 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 28% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Aug 23, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.193) with 575,535 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.138) with 22,441 cases, Guam (0.136) with 57,441 cases, Wyoming (0.126) with 173,487 cases, and Montana (0.126) with 302,455 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 260 of the last 351 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 56 of the last 62 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 5 of the last 5 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 55 of the last 56 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 166 of the last 246 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0153 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0101. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 28 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 118 of last 204 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 95 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 28% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut