California to Ban the Sale of New Gasoline Cars

[BlackBart]

Lugnut has made some really good observations above. It seems the car culture typically makes a knee-jerk reaction to the fuel issue, and of course many of us love our smelly dual-carbed fuel leaks and the noises they make.

BUT....there will not be any banning of fuels in the foreseeable future. No taking-our-cars-away draconian rulings. The market will control that. There are plenty of old (and young) guys (and gals) driving old cars and vintage cars around - some regularly, some on a sunny Saturday, just for fun. Gas costs them a lot more than it did in 1960, of course.

If I was a city commuter on clogged freeways every - single - day.... would I use my vintage Alfa Romeo with the stiff clutch and 20+ mpg and irreplaceable fenders? No. (I did when I was 24) I might take my comfy Volvo with an automatic. I might take a little Golf GTI. Or I might take a Fiat 500electric that can park anywhere, use very little power commuting, handle well, and zip along quietly. It would be perfect for a Saturday hardware store run or for groceries. What's the point of a high powered car for those things. And this is coming from a life-long, hardcore sportscar / racecar guy, reading Road & Track at 11 years old.

They can decide no new gasoline-powered cars can be sold in certain areas, but that means there will be hundreds of thousands 0f 2034 models out on the streets. Buy one of those used.

In the "Cash for Clunkers" era, it was not mandatory. You were not required to turn your beater in. They PAID you to take your mediocre car off the road.

You can keep your cars, drive your cars, show your cars - for decades. The hitch will probably be that, as fuel exploration becomes more and more expensive, or production and supply ramps down, fuel cost will go up. Do you want to drive your 50 year old car on a weekend overnight tour? Take it downtown to dinner? Take it to a show? Well, is it worth paying 10, 15, 20 dollars a gallon for that limited use? We'll have to make that decision individually.

Speaking as a life-long motorhead, I now have to take a long-term, bigger picture view of this. Burning wood has run its course - we're not cavemen anymore. Coal has run its course. Bunker fuel oil in ships and gasoline in cars will run its course. There are overlaps of these fuels over decades of course - they still run steam trains for tourists, but it makes absolutely no sense for a cross-country freight railroad.

It's nostalgia, it's age group, it's era, it's what we've become used to. My 20-something son loves his 35 year old BMW coupe, but I think if it were affordable, he'd buy an electric tomorrow. But people stop him for a picture, people offer him cash for it - the enthusiast / collector car world isn't going away.

I just read this - scientists are modeling theoretical fast charging of current (ha) battery technology to get from 0 to 90% charge in 10 minutes. On paper, anyway....

https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/960985

[matthew1]

Wow great points, BB. I like the coal/caveman analogy.

My house in Seattle I bought in 2003 used fuel oil for the furnace (bunker fuel?). A truck would deliver it every year. The price rose quickly even in the short 3 years I lived there. The owner after me tossed the old furnace (OE -- 1946!) and bought a natural gas furnace.

My point is these big changes are often not necessity (government mandate), and not convenience (full self driving), but economic. I think you're right -- a big part of the switchover will be the Stick, if the convenience of an EV is the Carrot. The bigger the Pain Snowball (fuel prices) gets, the faster it rolls.

And to close with my customary disclaimer: I love ICE cars. I love winding through the gears in my 6 speed. I love V8 torque. I love the sound of the eternal Volvo 5-cylinder. I'm only conjecturing what the (near) future will look like and how society responds to this gigantic shift in transportation.

[volvolugnut]

Great thoughts BB. I agree cars will not be outlawed - just made very expensive to run. Perhaps there will be many more 'trailer queens' towed to car shows by electric trucks?
volvolugnut

[BlackBart]

My house in Seattle I bought in 2003 used fuel oil for the furnace (bunker fuel?). A truck would deliver it every year. .

Same here! Our house in Ballard had an oil furnace. The local supplier guy showed up in a long Cadillac when we bought it, gave us a bottle of champagne.

We planned to switch to gas, and it ran out before they could install, and it was cold. I ran around trying to get just enough oil to get us by, and a contractor friend said, It’s just diesel.

So I got 5 gallons from the gas station and it fired right up!

Oil guy called us and said, “Y’know, I liked you kids.”

[BlackBart]

And to close with my customary disclaimer: I love ICE cars. I love winding through the gears in my 6 speed. I love V8 torque. I love the sound of the eternal Volvo 5-cylinder.

yep, me too.

[abscate]

We are still heating with oil in about 25-35% of households in New England due to no gas infrastructure. Until that changes , oil will be pumped and refined and gasoline will still be part of that process

EU already spends near $10 on gas for DD, so we will too at some point , for exotic cars

[abscate]

Think about the transition from horses to cars. The cars were first purchased in cities by well off people. It took years (decades?) before rural areas had many local owned cars.
One of my grandfathers used mules to farm up into the 1940's. I find it hard to imagine farm trucks becoming electric anytime in the next several decades. Of course trucks are not cars and will be a different situation. During grain harvest time, a farm truck will make multiple trips to a grain elevator in town each day. These grain storage facilities can be 25 to 50 miles away. These trucks would be fully loaded and likely get 6-8 MPG of diesel fuel. Refueling needs to be quick to allow getting back for another load while harvesters are running. The urgency is driven by potential losses from weather events.
volvolugnut

This is exactly the stuff that has to be rethought. Why own a hugely expensive ice or ev vehicle for several trips a day once a year?

[volvolugnut]

Think about the transition from horses to cars. The cars were first purchased in cities by well off people. It took years (decades?) before rural areas had many local owned cars.
One of my grandfathers used mules to farm up into the 1940's. I find it hard to imagine farm trucks becoming electric anytime in the next several decades. Of course trucks are not cars and will be a different situation. During grain harvest time, a farm truck will make multiple trips to a grain elevator in town each day. These grain storage facilities can be 25 to 50 miles away. These trucks would be fully loaded and likely get 6-8 MPG of diesel fuel. Refueling needs to be quick to allow getting back for another load while harvesters are running. The urgency is driven by potential losses from weather events.
volvolugnut

This is exactly the stuff that has to be rethought. Why own a hugely expensive ice or ev vehicle for several trips a day once a year?

General consolidation of farming operations is changing the farm truck picture. As farms have gotten larger, the equipment and trucks have gotten larger and more expensive to own and operate. Years ago, the grain hauled to town was often in a single rear axle 2 ton truck. Now, grain is mostly hauled to market in semi trucks. These semi trucks require a CDL for the driver. The smaller trucks never had CDL requirements enforced for farm use. The semi trucks will often be used off season to haul grain longer distances.
Larger farm operations will often have on farm grain storage for shorter field to storage hauling and reduced storage costs. When seasonal grain prices change, this farm stored grain will be hauled to market, sometime over longer distances.

Market prices for fuel, equipment, and grain drive these decisions and they change over the years. In the 1970's my Dad used a 2 ton truck to haul grain 8 miles to town or stored on the farm for feeding livestock. Today, grain from this farm is hauled by semi truck to a town 22 miles away.
volvolugnut

[BlackBart]

We are still heating with oil in about 25-35% of households in New England due to no gas infrastructure.

That's an interesting stat. I would have thought denser populations of the country would have gotten gas lines earlier than others.

[BlackBart]

I asked my buddy in Portland ME. They switched to vegetable oil to avoid fracking-sourced gas. Interesting!

https://www.mainestandardbiofuels.com