Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Sept 10, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: South Dakota (0.192) with 258,510 cases, West Virginia (0.192) with 590,441 cases, North Dakota (0.117) with 266,273 cases, Wyoming (0.107) with 175,290 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.097) with 22,926 cases. South Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 11 of the last 11 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 278 of the last 369 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 7 of the last 16 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 66 of the last 74 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 71 of the last 80 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00524 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0173. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 48 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 134 of last 222 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 97 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Sept 11, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: South Dakota (0.192) with 258,510 cases, West Virginia (0.192) with 590,441 cases, North Dakota (0.117) with 266,273 cases, Wyoming (0.107) with 175,290 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.097) with 22,926 cases. South Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 12 of the last 12 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 279 of the last 370 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 8 of the last 17 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 67 of the last 75 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 72 of the last 81 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00310 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00524. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 54 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 135 of last 223 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 97 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Sept 12, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.221) with 592,324 cases, South Dakota (0.192) with 258,510 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.129) with 22,970 cases, North Dakota (0.117) with 266,273 cases, and Wyoming (0.107) with 175,290 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 280 of the last 371 days. South Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 13 of the last 13 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 73 of the last 82 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 9 of the last 18 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 68 of the last 76 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00892 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00310. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 33 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 136 of last 224 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 97 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[AlbyVa]

The number of corona cases is growing. It's true

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Sept 13, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.229) with 593,041 cases, South Dakota (0.192) with 258,510 cases, North Dakota (0.117) with 266,273 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.109) with 22,992 cases, and Wyoming (0.107) with 175,290 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 281 of the last 372 days. South Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 14 of the last 14 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 10 of the last 19 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 74 of the last 83 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 69 of the last 77 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0115 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00892. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 30 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 137 of last 225 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 97 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Sept 14, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: South Dakota (0.260) with 259,683 cases, West Virginia (0.218) with 593,806 cases, Wyoming (0.141) with 175,746 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.120) with 23,018 cases, and North Dakota (0.117) with 266,273 cases. South Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 15 of the last 15 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 282 of the last 373 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 70 of the last 78 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 75 of the last 84 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 11 of the last 20 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0208 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0115. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 16 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 137 of last 226 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 97 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (Sept 4 to Sept 10, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph was down from the past week, and continued in negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day Days to Double were up the past week. New Case Count average decreased sharply for the week. Growth Rate Average decreased sharply.

This week included a holiday which reduces reporting.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Sept 15, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: South Dakota (0.260) with 259,683 cases, West Virginia (0.192) with 594,355 cases, Wyoming (0.141) with 175,746 cases, North Dakota (0.117) with 266,273 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.095) with 23,031 cases. South Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 16 of the last 16 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 283 of the last 374 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 71 of the last 79 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 12 of the last 21 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 76 of the last 85 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0151 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0208. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 26 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 138 of last 227 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 97 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Sept 16, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: South Dakota (0.260) with 259,683 cases, North Dakota (0.199) with 267,287 cases, West Virginia (0.180) with 595,044 cases, Wyoming (0.141) with 175,746 cases, and Montana (0.120) with 308,023 cases. South Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 17 of the last 17 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 13 of the last 22 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 284 of the last 375 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 72 of the last 80 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 180 of the last 270 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0148 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0151. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 27 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 139 of last 228 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 97 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Sept 17, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: South Dakota (0.260) with 259,683 cases, West Virginia (0.180) with 595,044 cases, Wyoming (0.141) with 175,746 cases, Montana (0.120) with 308,023 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.099) with 23,049 cases. South Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 18 of the last 18 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 285 of the last 376 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 73 of the last 81 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 181 of the last 271 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 77 of the last 87 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00499 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0148. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 46 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 140 of last 229 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 97 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut