Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Sept 18, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: South Dakota (0.260) with 259,683 cases, West Virginia (0.180) with 595,044 cases, Wyoming (0.141) with 175,746 cases, Montana (0.120) with 308,023 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.099) with 23,049 cases. South Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 19 of the last 19 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 286 of the last 377 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 74 of the last 82 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 182 of the last 272 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 78 of the last 88 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00280 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00499. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 53 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 141 of last 230 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 97 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last week (Sept 11 to Sept 17, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph was up from the past week, and continued in negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day was down the past week. The 14 day and 21 day Days to Double were up the past week. New Case Count average increased slightly for the week. Growth Rate Average increased slightly.

The previous week included a holiday which reduces reporting. The reversal of trends from last week to this week is likely the effect of the holiday last week.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Sept 19, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: South Dakota (0.260) with 259,683 cases, West Virginia (0.177) with 596,267 cases, Wyoming (0.141) with 175,746 cases, Montana (0.120) with 308,023 cases, and New York (0.091) with 6,240,410 cases. South Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 20 of the last 20 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 287 of the last 378 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 75 of the last 83 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 183 of the last 273 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00808 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00280. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 35 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 142 of last 231 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 97 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Sept 20, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: South Dakota (0.260) with 259,683 cases, West Virginia (0.176) with 596,709 cases, Wyoming (0.141) with 175,746 cases, Montana (0.120) with 308,023 cases, and New York (0.092) with 6,245,449 cases. South Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 21 of the last 21 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 288 of the last 379 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 76 of the last 84 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 184 of the last 274 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0121 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00808. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 30 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 143 of last 232 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 97 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Sept 21, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.182) with 597,303 cases, South Dakota (0.181) with 260,639 cases, Wyoming (0.160) with 176,256 cases, Montana (0.120) with 308,023 cases, and New York (0.085) with 6,249,473 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 289 of the last 380 days. South Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 22 of the last 22 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 77 of the last 85 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 185 of the last 275 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0211 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0121. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 16 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 143 of last 233 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 97 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Sept 22, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.191) with 597,764 cases, South Dakota (0.181) with 260,639 cases, Wyoming (0.160) with 176,256 cases, Montana (0.120) with 308,023 cases, and Guam (0.087) with 58,466 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 290 of the last 381 days. South Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 23 of the last 23 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 78 of the last 86 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 186 of the last 276 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 18 of the last 35 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0163 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0211. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 26 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 144 of last 234 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 97 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Sept 23, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.186) with 598,237 cases, South Dakota (0.181) with 260,639 cases, Wyoming (0.160) with 176,256 cases, Guam (0.097) with 58,489 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.088) with 23,120 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 291 of the last 382 days. South Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 24 of the last 24 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 79 of the last 87 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 19 of the last 36 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 79 of the last 93 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0142 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0163. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 28 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have started to rise in the last couple weeks. There have been 144 of last 235 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 97 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Sept 24, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.186) with 598,237 cases, South Dakota (0.181) with 260,639 cases, Wyoming (0.160) with 176,256 cases, North Dakota (0.144) with 268,307 cases, and Guam (0.097) with 58,489 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 292 of the last 383 days. South Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 25 of the last 25 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 80 of the last 88 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 14 of the last 30 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 20 of the last 37 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00653 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0142. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 47 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 145 of last 236 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 97 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Sept 25, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.186) with 598,237 cases, South Dakota (0.181) with 260,639 cases, Wyoming (0.160) with 176,256 cases, North Dakota (0.144) with 268,307 cases, and Guam (0.097) with 58,489 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 293 of the last 384 days. South Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 26 of the last 26 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 81 of the last 89 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 15 of the last 31 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 21 of the last 38 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00295 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00653. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 54 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 146 of last 237 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 97 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for Sept 26, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.186) with 599,143 cases, South Dakota (0.181) with 260,639 cases, Wyoming (0.160) with 176,256 cases, North Dakota (0.144) with 268,307 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.102) with 23,138 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 294 of the last 385 days. South Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 27 of the last 27 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 82 of the last 90 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 16 of the last 32 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 80 of the last 96 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00752 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00295. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 35 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 147 of last 238 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 97 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut