Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 7, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.196) with 602,461 cases, North Dakota (0.140) with 269,306 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.119) with 23,207 cases, Montana (0.098) with 311,830 cases, and New York (0.090) with 6,321,865 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 305 of the last 396 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 27 of the last 43 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 85 of the last 107 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 194 of the last 291 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0126 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0163. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 34 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 156 of last 249 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 98 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last two weeks (Sept 18 to Oct 1, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph was up for the past two weeks, and continued in negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day and 14 day was up the past two weeks. The 21 day Days to Double were down for the past two weeks. New Case Count average decreased slightly for the past two weeks. Growth Rate Average decreased the past two weeks.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 8 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.196) with 602,461 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.119) with 23,207 cases, Montana (0.098) with 311,830 cases, New York (0.090) 6,325,723 cases, and Arkansas (0.74) with 953,976 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 306 of the last 397 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 86 of the last 108 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 195 of the last 292 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00803 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0126. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 46 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 157 of last 250 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 98 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 9 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.196) with 602,461 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.119) with 23,207 cases, Montana (0.098) with 311,830 cases, New York (0.089) 6,328,888 cases, and Arkansas (0.75) with 954,076 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 307 of the last 398 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 87 of the last 109 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 196 of the last 293 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00321 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00803. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 53 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 158 of last 251 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 98 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 10 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.169) with 602,461 cases, Montana (0.098) with 311,830 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.093) with 23,207 cases, New York (0.080) 6,331,545 cases, and Arkansas (0.75) with 954,177 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 308 of the last 399 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 197 of the last 294 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 88 of the last 110 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00531 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00321. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 45 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 159 of last 252 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 98 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 11 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.158) with 603,256 cases, Montana (0.098) with 311,830 cases, New York (0.083) 6,335,769 cases, Arkansas (0.080) with 954,552 cases, and North Dakota (0.069) with 270,288 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 309 of the last 400 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 198 of the last 295 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 6 of the last 6 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 28 of the last 47 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0111 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00531. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 36 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 160 of last 253 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 98 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 12 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.163) with 603,583 cases, Wyoming (0.154) with 177,635 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.108) with 23,233 cases, Montana (0.098) with 311,830 cases, and New York (0.079) with 6,339,660 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 310 of the last 401 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 91 of the last 106 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 89 of the last 112 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 199 of the last 296 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 7 of the last 7 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0212 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0111. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 17 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 160 of last 254 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 98 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 13 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.169) with 603,859 cases, Wyoming (0.154) with 177,635 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.112) with 23,238 cases, Montana (0.098) with 311,830 cases, and New York (0.081) with 6,344,605 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 311 of the last 402 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 92 of the last 107 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 90 of the last 113 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 200 of the last 297 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 8 of the last 8 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0167 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0212. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 29 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 161 of last 255 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 98 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 14 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.168) with 604,108 cases, Wyoming (0.154) with 177,635 cases, Montana (0.113) with 312,863 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.105) with 23,240 cases, and Guam (0.100) with 58,695 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 312 of the last 403 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 93 of the last 108 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 201 of the last 298 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 91 of the last 114 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0154 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0167. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 29 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 162 of last 256 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 98 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 15 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.168) with 604,108 cases, Wyoming (0.154) with 177,635 cases, North Dakota (0.116) with 271,085 cases, Montana (0.113) with 312,863 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.105) with 23,240 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 313 of the last 404 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 94 of the last 109 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 29 of the last 51 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 202 of the last 299 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 92 of the last 115 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00659 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0154. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 47 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 163 of last 257 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 98 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut