Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 16, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.168) with 604,108 cases, Wyoming (0.154) with 177,635 cases, North Dakota (0.116) with 271,085 cases, Montana (0.113) with 312,863 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.105) with 23,240 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 314 of the last 405 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 95 of the last 110 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 30 of the last 52 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 203 of the last 300 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 93 of the last 116 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00458 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00659. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 53 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 164 of last 258 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 98 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 17, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.197) with 604,788 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.164) with 23,256 cases, Wyoming (0.154) with 177,635 cases, North Dakota (0.116) with 271,085 cases, and Montana (0.113) with 312,863 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 315 of the last 406 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 94 of the last 117 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 96 of the last 111 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 31 of the last 53 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 204 of the last 301 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00829 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00458. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 38 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 165 of last 259 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 98 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 18, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.216) with 23,269 cases, West Virginia (0.208) with 605,012 cases, Wyoming (0.154) with 177,635 cases, North Dakota (0.116) with 271,085 cases, and Montana (0.113) with 312,863 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 95 of the last 118 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 316 of the last 407 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 97 of the last 112 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 32 of the last 54 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 205 of the last 302 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0103 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00829. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 37 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 166 of last 260 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 98 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last two weeks (Oct 2 to Oct 15, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph was flat for the past two weeks, and continued in negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day and 14 day was down the past two weeks. The 21 day Days to Double were down for the past two weeks. New Case Count average decreased slightly for the past two weeks. Growth Rate Average increased slightly the past two weeks.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 19, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.203) with 605,322 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.155) with 23,276 cases, Wyoming (0.121) with 178,032 cases, North Dakota (0.116) with 271,085 cases, and Montana (0.113) with 312,863 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 317 of the last 408 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 96 of the last 119 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 98 of the last 113 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 33 of the last 55 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 206 of the last 303 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0215 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0103. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 17 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 166 of last 261 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 98 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 20, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.196) with 605,577 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.149) with 23,279 cases, Wyoming (0.121) with 178,032 cases, North Dakota (0.116) with 271,085 cases, and Montana (0.113) with 312,863 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 318 of the last 409 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 97 of the last 120 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 99 of the last 114 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 34 of the last 56 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 207 of the last 304 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0145 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0215. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 34 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 167 of last 262 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 99 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 21, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.197) with 605,830 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.155) with 23,283 cases, Wyoming (0.121) with 178,032 cases, North Dakota (0.116) with 271,085 cases, and Montana (0.108) with 313,809 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 319 of the last 410 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 98 of the last 121 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 100 of the last 115 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 35 of the last 57 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 208 of the last 305 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0128 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0145. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 38 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 168 of last 263 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 99 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 22, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.197) with 605,830 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.155) with 23,283 cases, Wyoming (0.121) with 178,032 cases, Montana (0.108) with 313,809 cases, and New York (0.099) with 6,385,009 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 320 of the last 411 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 99 of the last 122 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 101 of the last 116 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 209 of the last 306 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 9 of the last 17 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00487 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0128. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 53 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 169 of last 264 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 99 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for October 23, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.197) with 605,830 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.155) with 23,283 cases, Wyoming (0.121) with 178,032 cases, Montana (0.108) with 313,809 cases, and New York (0.098) with 6,388,383 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 321 of the last 412 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 100 of the last 123 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 102 of the last 117 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 210 of the last 307 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 10 of the last 18 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00409 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00487. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 53 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 170 of last 265 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 99 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last two weeks (Oct 16 to Oct 22, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph was flat for the past week, and continued in negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day and 14 day was up the past week. The 21 day Days to Double were down for the past week. New Case Count average decreased slightly for the past week. Growth Rate Average decreased slightly the past week.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut