Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 1, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.261) with 58,835 cases, West Virginia (0.221) with 608,341 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.110) with 23,344 cases, Montana (0.096) with 314,564 cases, and New York (0.092) with 6,428,330 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 9 of the last 9 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 330 of the last 421 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 109 of the last 132 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 219 of the last 316 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 17 of the last 27 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0123 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0105. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 42 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 177 of last 274 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 99 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 2, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.261) with 58,835 cases, West Virginia (0.236) with 608,652 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.167) with 23,367 cases, Montana (0.096) with 314,564 cases, and New York (0.090) with 6,431,861 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 10 of the last 10 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 331 of the last 422 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 110 of the last 133 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 220 of the last 317 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 18 of the last 28 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0211 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0123. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 24 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 177 of last 275 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 99 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 3, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.261) with 58,835 cases, West Virginia (0.224) with 608,965 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.215) with 23,388 cases, Wyoming (0.214) with 178,866 cases, and Montana (0.096) with 314,564 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 11 of the last 11 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 332 of the last 423 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 111 of the last 134 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 105 of the last 128 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 221 of the last 318 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0209 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0211. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 30 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 177 of last 276 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 99 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 4, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.261) with 58,835 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.246) with 23,402 cases, West Virginia (0.231) with 609,356 cases, Wyoming (0.214) with 178,866 cases, and Montana (0.124) with 315,421 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 12 of the last 12 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 112 of the last 135 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 333 of the last 424 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 106 of the last 129 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 222 of the last 319 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0152 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0209. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 40 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 178 of last 277 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 99 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 5, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.261) with 58,835 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.246) with 23,402 cases, West Virginia (0.231) with 609,356 cases, Wyoming (0.214) with 178,866 cases, and Montana (0.124) with 315,421 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 13 of the last 13 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 113 of the last 136 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 334 of the last 425 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 107 of the last 130 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 223 of the last 320 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00466 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0152. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 54 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 178 of last 278 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 99 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 6, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.261) with 58,835 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.246) with 23,402 cases, West Virginia (0.231) with 609,356 cases, Wyoming (0.214) with 178,866 cases, and Montana (0.124) with 315,421 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 14 of the last 14 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 114 of the last 137 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 335 of the last 426 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 108 of the last 131 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 224 of the last 321 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00477 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00466. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 54 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 179 of last 279 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 99 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 7, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.215) with 609,944 cases, Wyoming (0.214) with 178,866 cases, Guam (0.206) with 58,939 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.175) with 23,413 cases, and Montana (0.124) with 315,421 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 336 of the last 427 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 109 of the last 132 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 15 of the last 15 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 115 of the last 138 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 225 of the last 322 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0111 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00477. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 39 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 180 of last 280 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 99 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 8, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.214) with 178,866 cases, Guam (0.206) with 58,939 cases, West Virginia (0.180) with 609,944 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.175) with 23,413 cases, and Montana (0.124) with 315,421 cases. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 110 of the last 133 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 16 of the last 16 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 337 of the last 428 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 116 of the last 139 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 226 of the last 323 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00924 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0111. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 45 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 181 of last 281 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 99 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 9, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.208) with 610,432 cases, Guam (0.206) with 58,939 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.152) with 23,435 cases, Wyoming (0.146) with 178,866 cases, and Montana (0.124) with 315,421 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 338 of the last 429 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 17 of the last 17 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 117 of the last 140 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 111 of the last 134 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 227 of the last 324 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0247 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00924. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 24 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 181 of last 282 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 99 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last two weeks (Oct 23 to Nov 5, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph was up slightly for the past two weeks, and continued in negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day and 14 day were up the past two weeks. The 21 day Days to Double was down for the past two weeks. New Case Count average increased slightly for the past two weeks. Growth Rate Average increased for the past two weeks.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut