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volvolugnut
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 10 Nov 2022, 08:17
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for November 10, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.206) with 58,939 cases, West Virginia (0.205) with 610,675 cases, North Dakota (0.153) with 273,779 cases, Montana (0.124) with 315,421 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.123) with 23,445 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 18 of the last 18 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 339 of the last 430 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 228 of the last 325 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 118 of the last 141 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0184 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0247. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 34 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 181 of last 283 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 99 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 29% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut
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State Growth 111022 B.png (120.78 KiB) Viewed 280 times
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 11 Nov 2022, 07:08
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for November 11, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.224) with 274,701 cases, Guam (0.206) with 58,939 cases, West Virginia (0.146) with 610,675 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.093) with 23,445 cases, and New York (0.091) with 6,473,060 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 19 of the last 19 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 340 of the last 431 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 119 of the last 142 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 19 of the last 37 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00878 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0184. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 47 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 182 of last 284 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 99 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
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State Growth 111122 A.png
State Growth 111122 A.png (129.4 KiB) Viewed 274 times
State Growth 111122 B.png
State Growth 111122 B.png (117.52 KiB) Viewed 274 times
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 12 Nov 2022, 08:10
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for November 12, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.224) with 274,701 cases, Guam (0.206) with 58,939 cases, West Virginia (0.146) with 610,675 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.093) with 23,445 cases, and New York (0.089) with 6,476,550 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 20 of the last 20 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 341 of the last 432 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 120 of the last 143 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 20 of the last 38 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00340 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00878. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 54 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 183 of last 285 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 99 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
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State Growth 111222 A.png
State Growth 111222 A.png (129.21 KiB) Viewed 258 times
State Growth 111222 B.png
State Growth 111222 B.png (115.49 KiB) Viewed 258 times
The Fleet:
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Mercedes: 2001 E320, 1973 280, 1974 280C, 1989 300E, 1988 300TE, 1979 300TD, parts cars.
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 13 Nov 2022, 08:24
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for November 13, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.224) with 274,701 cases, Guam (0.206) with 58,939 cases, West Virginia (0.146) with 610,675 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.093) with 23,445 cases, and Arkansas (0.089) with 963,740 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 21 of the last 21 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 342 of the last 433 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 121 of the last 144 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00236 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00340. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 55 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 184 of last 286 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 99 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut
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State Growth 111322 A .png
State Growth 111322 A .png (130.3 KiB) Viewed 251 times
State Growth 111322 B.png
State Growth 111322 B.png (113.82 KiB) Viewed 251 times
The Fleet:
Volvo: 2001 V70 T5, 1986 244DL, 1983 245DL, 1975 245DL, 1959 PV544, multiple Volvo parts cars.
Mercedes: 2001 E320, 1973 280, 1974 280C, 1989 300E, 1988 300TE, 1979 300TD, parts cars.
2009 Smart Passion
Ford: 1977 F350, 1964 F150 (2), 1938 Tudor Sedan
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 14 Nov 2022, 07:21
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for November 14, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.224) with 274,701 cases, Guam (0.179) with 58,939 cases, West Virginia (0.151) with 611,358 cases, New York (0.089) with 6,485,479 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.089) with 23,454 cases. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 5 of the last 5 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 22 of the last 22 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 343 of the last 434 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 21 of the last 40 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 122 of the last 145 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0105 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00236. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 42 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 184 of last 287 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 99 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 111422 A.png
State Growth 111422 A.png (130.62 KiB) Viewed 244 times
State Growth 111422 B.png
State Growth 111422 B.png (117.39 KiB) Viewed 244 times
The Fleet:
Volvo: 2001 V70 T5, 1986 244DL, 1983 245DL, 1975 245DL, 1959 PV544, multiple Volvo parts cars.
Mercedes: 2001 E320, 1973 280, 1974 280C, 1989 300E, 1988 300TE, 1979 300TD, parts cars.
2009 Smart Passion
Ford: 1977 F350, 1964 F150 (2), 1938 Tudor Sedan
Farmall tractors: 1956 400 Diesel, 1946 A
And others.

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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 15 Nov 2022, 07:03
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for November 15, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.224) with 274,701 cases, West Virginia (0.200) with 611,586 cases, Guam (0.179) with 59,039 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.102) with 23,458 cases, and New York (0.092) with 6,489,316 cases. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 6 of the last 6 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 344 of the last 435 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 23 of the last 23 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 123 of the last 146 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 22 of the last 41 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0134 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0105. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 40 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 185 of last 288 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 99 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut
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State Growth 111522 A.png
State Growth 111522 A.png (133.69 KiB) Viewed 232 times
State Growth 111522 B.png
State Growth 111522 B.png (118.18 KiB) Viewed 232 times
The Fleet:
Volvo: 2001 V70 T5, 1986 244DL, 1983 245DL, 1975 245DL, 1959 PV544, multiple Volvo parts cars.
Mercedes: 2001 E320, 1973 280, 1974 280C, 1989 300E, 1988 300TE, 1979 300TD, parts cars.
2009 Smart Passion
Ford: 1977 F350, 1964 F150 (2), 1938 Tudor Sedan
Farmall tractors: 1956 400 Diesel, 1946 A
And others.

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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 16 Nov 2022, 08:09
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for November 16, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.179) with 59,039 cases, West Virginia (0.173) with 611,813 cases, New York (0.087) with 6,493,168 cases, Arkansas (0.082) with 964,601 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.075) with 23,466 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 24 of the last 24 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 345 of the last 436 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 23 of the last 42 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 124 of the last 147 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0228 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0134. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 28 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 185 of last 289 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 100 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 111622 A.png
State Growth 111622 A.png (131.12 KiB) Viewed 223 times
State Growth 111622 B.png
State Growth 111622 B.png (120.98 KiB) Viewed 223 times
The Fleet:
Volvo: 2001 V70 T5, 1986 244DL, 1983 245DL, 1975 245DL, 1959 PV544, multiple Volvo parts cars.
Mercedes: 2001 E320, 1973 280, 1974 280C, 1989 300E, 1988 300TE, 1979 300TD, parts cars.
2009 Smart Passion
Ford: 1977 F350, 1964 F150 (2), 1938 Tudor Sedan
Farmall tractors: 1956 400 Diesel, 1946 A
And others.

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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 17 Nov 2022, 08:24
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for November 17, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.179) with 59,039 cases, West Virginia (0.178) with 612,047 cases, New York (0.088) with 6,498,665 cases, Arkansas (0.082) with 964,886 cases, and North Dakota (0.071) with 274,701 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 25 of the last 25 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 346 of the last 437 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 24 of the last 43 days. North Dakota has been in the top 5 states for 7 of the last 8 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0170 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0228. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 35 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 186 of last 290 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 100 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 111722 A.png
State Growth 111722 A.png (131.96 KiB) Viewed 215 times
State Growth 111722 B.png
State Growth 111722 B.png (119.44 KiB) Viewed 215 times
The Fleet:
Volvo: 2001 V70 T5, 1986 244DL, 1983 245DL, 1975 245DL, 1959 PV544, multiple Volvo parts cars.
Mercedes: 2001 E320, 1973 280, 1974 280C, 1989 300E, 1988 300TE, 1979 300TD, parts cars.
2009 Smart Passion
Ford: 1977 F350, 1964 F150 (2), 1938 Tudor Sedan
Farmall tractors: 1956 400 Diesel, 1946 A
And others.

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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 18 Nov 2022, 08:10
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for November 18, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.231) with 317,135 cases, West Virginia (0.220) with 612,262 cases, Guam (0.179) with 59,039 cases, New York (0.092) with 6,503,853 cases, and Arkansas (0.077) with 965,185 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 229 of the last 333 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 347 of the last 438 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 26 of the last 26 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 25 of the last 44 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0170 for yesterday, same as previous day of 0.0170. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 40 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 186 of last 291 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 100 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut
Attachments
State Growth 111822 A.png
State Growth 111822 A.png (130.13 KiB) Viewed 205 times
State Growth 111822 B.png
State Growth 111822 B.png (116.68 KiB) Viewed 205 times
The Fleet:
Volvo: 2001 V70 T5, 1986 244DL, 1983 245DL, 1975 245DL, 1959 PV544, multiple Volvo parts cars.
Mercedes: 2001 E320, 1973 280, 1974 280C, 1989 300E, 1988 300TE, 1979 300TD, parts cars.
2009 Smart Passion
Ford: 1977 F350, 1964 F150 (2), 1938 Tudor Sedan
Farmall tractors: 1956 400 Diesel, 1946 A
And others.

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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 19 Nov 2022, 08:58
More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
State growth rates for November 19, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Montana (0.231) with 317,135 cases, West Virginia (0.220) with 612,262 cases, Guam (0.179) with 59,039 cases, New York (0.094) with 6,507,862 cases, and Arkansas (0.078) with 965,367 cases. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 230 of the last 334 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 348 of the last 439 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 27 of the last 27 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 26 of the last 45 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 5 of the last 7 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00460 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0170. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 53 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 187 of last 292 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 100 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


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volvolugnut
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