Coronavirus Thread

[scot850]

Yesterday I had my 5th Covid-19 jab. This time the one with the Omicron protection. Maybe should not have done that as the same time as the Flu jab!

Neil.

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 29, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.180) with 59,330 cases, West Virginia (0.159) with 614,319 cases, Montana (0.132) with 318,105 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.122) with 23,517 cases, and Arkansas (0.093) with 968,230 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 37 of the last 37 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 358 of the last 449 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 240 of the last 344 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 133 of the last 160 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 10 of the last 17 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0170 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0103 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 41 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 192 of last 302 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 100 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 30, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.180) with 59,330 cases, West Virginia (0.172) with 614,646 cases, Montana (0.132) with 318,105 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.104) with 23,520 cases, and Arkansas (0.102) with 968,871 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 38 of the last 38 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 359 of the last 450 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 241 of the last 345 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 134 of the last 161 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 11 of the last 18 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0337 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0170 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 31 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 192 of last 303 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 100 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 1, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.244) with 615,040 cases, Guam (0.180) with 59,330 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.171) with 23,536 cases, Montana (0.132) with 318,105 cases, and New York (0.104) with 6,561,555 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 360 of the last 451 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 39 of the last 39 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 135 of the last 162 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 242 of the last 346 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 33 of the last 57 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0285 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0337 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 34 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 192 of last 304 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 100 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 2, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.287) with 615,332 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.200) with 23,545 cases, Guam (0.180) with 59,330 cases, Arkansas (0.127) with 970,396 cases, and New York (0.122) with 6,569,744 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 361 of the last 452 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 136 of the last 163 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 40 of the last 40 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 12 of the last 20 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 34 of the last 58 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0226 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0285 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 39 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 193 of last 305 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 100 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 3, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.287) with 615,332 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.200) with 23,545 cases, Guam (0.180) with 59,330 cases, Arkansas (0.132) with 970,857 cases, and New York (0.130) with 6,575,556 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 362 of the last 453 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 137 of the last 164 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 41 of the last 41 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 13 of the last 21 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 35 of the last 59 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0059 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0226 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 53 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 194 of last 306 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 100 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last two weeks (Nov 20 to Dec 3, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph was up sharply for the past two weeks, and crossed into positive range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day Days to Double were down sharply for the past two weeks. New Case Count average increased sharply for the past two weeks. Growth Rate Average increased very sharply for the past two weeks.

Comments: Growth Rate Average is now near levels last seen in July. New case slope has crossed into positive area indicating an increasing trend instead of decreasing. This may be the start of another big surge in new cases.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 4, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.287) with 615,332 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.200) with 23,545 cases, Guam (0.180) with 59,330 cases, New York (0.129) with 6,579,509 cases, and Arkansas (0.122) with 971,020 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 363 of the last 454 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 138 of the last 165 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 42 of the last 42 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 36 of the last 60 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 14 of the last 22 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00458 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0059 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 54 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 194 of last 307 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 100 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 5, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.277) with 615,922 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.234) with 23,574 cases, Guam (0.164) with 59,460 cases, New York (0.129) with 6,586,791 cases, and Arkansas (0.120) with 971,190 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 364 of the last 455 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 139 of the last 166 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 43 of the last 43 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 37 of the last 61 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 15 of the last 23 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0126 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00458 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 40 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 194 of last 308 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 100 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 6, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.251) with 616,175 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.238) with 23,594 cases, Guam (0.164) with 59,460 cases, New York (0.121) with 6,592,452 cases, and Arkansas (0.115) with 971,876 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 365 of the last 456 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 140 of the last 167 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 44 of the last 44 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 38 of the last 62 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 16 of the last 24 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0163 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0126 This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 40 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 194 of last 309 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 100 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut