Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 16, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.259) with 619,323 cases, Guam (0.187) with 59,574 cases, Montana (0.113) with 321,244 cases, and New York (0.094) with 6,659,312 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.078) with 23,679 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 375 of the last 466 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 54 of the last 54 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 251 of the last 361 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 48 of the last 72 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 150 of the last 177 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0158 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0242. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 40 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 196 of last 319 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 101 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 17, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.259) with 619,323 cases, Guam (0.187) with 59,574 cases, Montana (0.113) with 321,244 cases, and New York (0.093) with 6,664,739 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.078) with 23,679 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 376 of the last 467 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 55 of the last 55 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 252 of the last 362 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 49 of the last 73 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 151 of the last 178 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00472 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0158. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 53 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 197 of last 320 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 101 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 18, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.259) with 619,323 cases, Guam (0.187) with 59,574 cases, Montana (0.113) with 321,244 cases, and New York (0.091) with 6,669,683 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.078) with 23,679 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 377 of the last 468 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 56 of the last 56 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 253 of the last 363 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 50 of the last 74 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 152 of the last 179 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00423 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00472. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 54 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 198 of last 321 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 101 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last two weeks (Dec 4 to Dec 17, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph was down sightly for the past two weeks and stayed in positive range. The Days to Double for the 7 day measure were up, while the 14 day and 21 day Days to Double were down slightly for the past two weeks. New Case Count average increased slightly for the past two weeks. Growth Rate Average decreased for the past two weeks.

Comments: Indicators have changed in the last few weeks to increasing virus trends. This may be the start of another big surge in new cases.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 19, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.297) with 59,709 cases, West Virginia (0.262) with 620,243 cases, Montana (0.113) with 321,244 cases, New York (0.096) with 6,677,894 cases, and Wyoming (0.073) with 182,198 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 57 of the last 57 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 378 of the last 469 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 254 of the last 364 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 51 of the last 75 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 112 of the last 174 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0111 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00423. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 40 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 199 of last 322 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 101 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 20, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.297) with 59,709 cases, West Virginia (0.261) with 620,606 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.128) with 23,712 cases, Montana (0.113) with 321,244 cases, and New York (0.095) with 6,683,493 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 58 of the last 58 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 379 of the last 470 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 153 of the last 174 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 255 of the last 365 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 52 of the last 76 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0224 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0111. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 29 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 199 of last 323 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 101 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 21, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.297) with 59,709 cases, West Virginia (0.266) with 621,117 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.159) with 23,712 cases, Montana (0.113) with 321,244 cases, and New York (0.094) with 6,689,091 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 59 of the last 59 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 380 of the last 471 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 154 of the last 182 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 256 of the last 366 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 53 of the last 77 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0279 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0224. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 24 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 199 of last 324 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 102 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 22, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.297) with 59,709 cases, West Virginia (0.261) with 621,614 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.146) with 23,728 cases, Montana (0.113) with 321,244 cases, and New York (0.093) with 6,697,194 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 60 of the last 60 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 381 of the last 472 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 155 of the last 183 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 257 of the last 367 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 54 of the last 78 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0229 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0279. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 30 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 199 of last 325 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 102 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 23, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.297) with 59,709 cases, West Virginia (0.201) with 621,614 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.162) with 23,734 cases, Montana (0.106) with 322,270 cases, and New York (0.092) with 6,704,695 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 61 of the last 61 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 382 of the last 473 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 156 of the last 184 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 258 of the last 368 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 55 of the last 79 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0151 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0229. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 40 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 200 of last 326 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 102 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 24, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.297) with 59,709 cases, West Virginia (0.201) with 621,614 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.162) with 23,734 cases, Montana (0.106) with 322,270 cases, and New York (0.092) with 6,710,095 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 62 of the last 62 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 383 of the last 474 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 157 of the last 185 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 259 of the last 369 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 56 of the last 80 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00405 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0151. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 53 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 201 of last 327 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 102 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut