Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 25, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.297) with 59,709 cases, West Virginia (0.201) with 621,614 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.162) with 23,734 cases, Montana (0.106) with 322,270 cases, and New York (0.090) with 6,714,386 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 63 of the last 63 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 384 of the last 475 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 158 of the last 186 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 260 of the last 370 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 57 of the last 81 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00244 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00405. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 56 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 202 of last 328 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 102 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 26, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: West Virginia (0.163) with 621,614 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.134) with 23,734 cases, Montana (0.106) with 322,270 cases, New York (0.080) with 6,717,160 cases, and Arkansas (0.075) with 981,964 cases. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 385 of the last 476 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 159 of the last 187 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 261 of the last 371 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 58 of the last 82 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 18 of the last 44 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00274 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00244. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 52 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 203 of last 329 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 102 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 27, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.318) with 59,876 cases, West Virginia (0.152) with 623,080 cases, Montana (0.106) with 322,270 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.086) with 23,745 cases, and New York (0.082) with 6,725,465 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 64 of the last 65 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 386 of the last 477 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 262 of the last 372 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 160 of the last 188 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 59 of the last 83 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00933 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00274. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 40 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 203 of last 330 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 102 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 28, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.318) with 59,876 cases, West Virginia (0.151) with 623,541 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.126) with 23,764 cases, Montana (0.106) with 322,270 cases, and New York (0.077) with 6,728,671 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 65 of the last 66 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 387 of the last 478 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 161 of the last 189 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 263 of the last 373 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 60 of the last 84 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0198 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00933. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 31 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 203 of last 331 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 102 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 29, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.318) with 59,876 cases, West Virginia (0.176) with 624,174 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.122) with 23,769 cases, Montana (0.106) with 322,270 cases, and New York (0.075) with 6,735,204 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 66 of the last 67 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 388 of the last 479 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 162 of the last 190 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 264 of the last 374 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 61 of the last 85 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0167 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0198. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 38 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 204 of last 332 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 102 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 30, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.318) with 59,876 cases, West Virginia (0.237) with 624,721 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.106) with 23,769 cases, Arkansas (0.084) with 984,824 cases, and Montana (0.083) with 323,055 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 67 of the last 68 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 389 of the last 480 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 163 of the last 191 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 19 of the last 48 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 265 of the last 375 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0158 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0167. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 41 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 205 of last 333 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 102 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for December 31, 2022. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.318) with 59,876 cases, West Virginia (0.237) with 624,721 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.106) with 23,769 cases, Arkansas (0.092) with 985,493 cases, and Montana (0.083) with 323,055 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 68 of the last 69 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 390 of the last 481 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 164 of the last 192 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 20 of the last 49 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 266 of the last 376 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0169 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0158. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 54 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 206 of last 334 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 102 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 1, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.318) with 59,876 cases, West Virginia (0.237) with 624,721 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.106) with 23,769 cases, Arkansas (0.097) with 985,747 cases, and Montana (0.083) with 323,055 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 69 of the last 70 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 391 of the last 482 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 165 of the last 193 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 21 of the last 50 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 267 of the last 377 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00141 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0169. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 55 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 206 of last 335 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 102 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 2, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 7 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.318) with 59,876 cases, West Virginia (0.237) with 624,721 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.106) with 23,769 cases, Arkansas (0.092) with 985,945 cases, and Montana (0.083) with 323,055 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 70 of the last 71 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 392 of the last 483 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 166 of the last 194 days. Arkansas has been in the top 5 states for 22 of the last 51 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 268 of the last 378 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the previous day growth rate divided by the 7 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00248 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00141. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 52 states did not report new cases. It appears some states, particularly Wyoming, are deleting active cases from the count much earlier that others. These differences in the states reporting, makes the growth rate comparisons misleading.

Several states, including Alaska, Mississippi, Nebraska, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont, may only be reporting on an irregular basis. These states have not reported for at least two weeks.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 207 of last 336 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 102 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last two weeks (Dec 18 to Dec 31, 2022).

The New Case Slope graph was down sightly for the past two weeks and moved into negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day Days to Double were all up for the past two weeks. New Case Count average decreased for the past two weeks. Growth Rate Average decreased sharply for the past two weeks.

The recent change in trends may be holiday effects. The next few weeks will tell the story in clearer detail.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut