Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 13, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

Many states have been reporting on an irregular schedule. I have changed to a 30 Day Moving Average Growth Rate from the previous 7 Day Moving Average Growth Rate. I have also removed the daily state ranking as this has become irrelevant.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.354) with 60,311 cases, West Virginia (0.221) with 629,923 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.180) with 24,032 cases, Montana (0.119) with 324,726 cases, and New York (0.081) with 6,820,896 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 81 of the last 82 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 403 of the last 494 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 177 of the last 205 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 279 of the last 389 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 71 of the last 100 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00918 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0135. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 41 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 213 of last 347 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 103 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 30% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 14, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

Many states have been reporting on an irregular schedule. I have changed to a 30 Day Moving Average Growth Rate from the previous 7 Day Moving Average Growth Rate. I have also removed the daily state ranking as this has become irrelevant.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.354) with 60,311 cases, West Virginia (0.206) with 629,923 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.176) with 24,032 cases, Montana (0.119) with 324,726 cases, and New York (0.079) with 6,824,501 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 82 of the last 83 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 404 of the last 495 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 178 of the last 206 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 280 of the last 390 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 72 of the last 101 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00312 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00918. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 53 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 213 of last 348 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 103 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last two weeks (January 1 to 14, 2023).

The New Case Slope graph was down sightly for the past two weeks and continued in negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day Days to Double were all up for the past two weeks. New Case Count average decreased slightly for the past two weeks. Growth Rate Average decreased slightly for the past two weeks.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 15, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

Many states have been reporting on an irregular schedule. I have changed to a 30 Day Moving Average Growth Rate from the previous 7 Day Moving Average Growth Rate. I have also removed the daily state ranking as this has become irrelevant.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.354) with 60,311 cases, West Virginia (0.192) with 629,923 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.176) with 24,032 cases, Montana (0.093) with 324,726 cases, and New York (0.077) with 6,827,542 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 83 of the last 84 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 405 of the last 496 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 179 of the last 207 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 281 of the last 391 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 73 of the last 102 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00204 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00312. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 54 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 214 of last 349 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 103 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 16, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

Many states have been reporting on an irregular schedule. I have changed to a 30 Day Moving Average Growth Rate from the previous 7 Day Moving Average Growth Rate. I have also removed the daily state ranking as this has become irrelevant.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.354) with 60,311 cases, West Virginia (0.192) with 629,923 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.176) with 24,032 cases, Montana (0.093) with 324,726 cases, and New York (0.076) with 6,829,927 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 84 of the last 85 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 406 of the last 497 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 180 of the last 208 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 282 of the last 392 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 74 of the last 103 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00228 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00204. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 52 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 215 of last 350 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 103 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 17, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

Many states have been reporting on an irregular schedule. I have changed to a 30 Day Moving Average Growth Rate from the previous 7 Day Moving Average Growth Rate. I have also removed the daily state ranking as this has become irrelevant.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.409) with 60,492 cases, West Virginia (0.220) with 630,808 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.194) with 24,138 cases, Montana (0.093) with 324,726 cases, and New York (0.077) with 6,835,458 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 85 of the last 86 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 407 of the last 498 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 181 of the last 209 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 283 of the last 393 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 75 of the last 104 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00656 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00228. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 43 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 216 of last 351 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 103 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 18, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

Many states have been reporting on an irregular schedule. I have changed to a 30 Day Moving Average Growth Rate from the previous 7 Day Moving Average Growth Rate. I have also removed the daily state ranking as this has become irrelevant.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.340) with 60,492 cases, West Virginia (0.226) with 631,197 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.192) with 24,176 cases, Montana (0.093) with 324,726 cases, and New York (0.076) with 6,838,700 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 86 of the last 87 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 408 of the last 499 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 182 of the last 210 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 284 of the last 394 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 76 of the last 105 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0131 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00656. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 30 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 217 of last 352 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 103 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 19, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

Many states have been reporting on an irregular schedule. I have changed to a 30 Day Moving Average Growth Rate from the previous 7 Day Moving Average Growth Rate. I have also removed the daily state ranking as this has become irrelevant.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.340) with 60,492 cases, West Virginia (0.227) with 631,504 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.180) with 24,228 cases, Montana (0.093) with 324,726 cases, and New York (0.077) with 6,843,875 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 87 of the last 88 days. West Virginia has been in the top 5 states for 409 of the last 500 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 183 of the last 211 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 285 of the last 395 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 77 of the last 106 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0115 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0131. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 34 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 217 of last 353 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 103 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 20, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

Many states have been reporting on an irregular schedule. I have changed to a 30 Day Moving Average Growth Rate from the previous 7 Day Moving Average Growth Rate. I have also removed the daily state ranking as this has become irrelevant.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.340) with 60,492 cases, West Virginia (0.224) with 631,811 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.174) with 24,228 cases, Montana (0.109) with 325,227 cases, and New York (0.076) with 6,846,939 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 88 of the last 89 days. West Virginia has been in the top states for 410 of the last 501 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 184 of the last 212 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 286 of the last 396 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 78 of the last 107 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00733 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0115. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 43 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 218 of last 354 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 103 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 21, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

Many states have been reporting on an irregular schedule. I have changed to a 30 Day Moving Average Growth Rate from the previous 7 Day Moving Average Growth Rate. I have also removed the daily state ranking as this has become irrelevant.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.340) with 60,492 cases, West Virginia (0.211) with 631,811 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.171) with 24,228 cases, Montana (0.109) with 325,227 cases, and New York (0.075) with 6,851,227 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 89 of the last 90 days. West Virginia has been in the top states for 411 of the last 502 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 185 of the last 213 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 287 of the last 397 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 79 of the last 108 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00343 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00733. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 53 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 219 of last 355 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 103 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut