Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 22, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

Many states have been reporting on an irregular schedule. I have changed to a 30 Day Moving Average Growth Rate from the previous 7 Day Moving Average Growth Rate. I have also removed the daily state ranking as this has become irrelevant.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.340) with 60,492 cases, West Virginia (0.211) with 631,811 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.167) with 24,228 cases, Montana (0.084) with 325,227 cases, and New York (0.074) with 6,853,891 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 90 of the last 91 days. West Virginia has been in the top states for 412 of the last 503 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 186 of the last 214 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 288 of the last 398 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 80 of the last 109 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00238 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00343. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 54 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 220 of last 356 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 103 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 23, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

Many states have been reporting on an irregular schedule. I have changed to a 30 Day Moving Average Growth Rate from the previous 7 Day Moving Average Growth Rate. I have also removed the daily state ranking as this has become irrelevant.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.378) with 60,620 cases, West Virginia (0.217) with 632,411 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.182) with 24,362 cases, Montana (0.084) with 325,227 cases, and New York (0.074) with 6,859,817 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 91 of the last 92 days. West Virginia has been in the top states for 413 of the last 504 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 187 of the last 215 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 289 of the last 399 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 81 of the last 110 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00499 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00238. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 43 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 221 of last 357 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 103 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 24, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

Many states have been reporting on an irregular schedule. I have changed to a 30 Day Moving Average Growth Rate from the previous 7 Day Moving Average Growth Rate. I have also removed the daily state ranking as this has become irrelevant.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.378) with 60,620 cases, West Virginia (0.227) with 632,661 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.185) with 24,385 cases, Montana (0.084) with 325,227 cases, and New York (0.075) with 6,862,880 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 92 of the last 93 days. West Virginia has been in the top states for 414 of the last 505 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 188 of the last 216 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 290 of the last 400 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 82 of the last 111 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00629 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00499. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 44 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 222 of last 358 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 103 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 25, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

Many states have been reporting on an irregular schedule. I have changed to a 30 Day Moving Average Growth Rate from the previous 7 Day Moving Average Growth Rate. I have also removed the daily state ranking as this has become irrelevant.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.378) with 60,620 cases, West Virginia (0.240) with 632,957 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.190) with 24,425 cases, Montana (0.084) with 325,227 cases, and New York (0.076) with 6,866,090 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 93 of the last 94 days. West Virginia has been in the top states for 415 of the last 506 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 189 of the last 217 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 291 of the last 401 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 83 of the last 112 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0148 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00629. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 34 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 222 of last 359 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 103 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 26, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

Many states have been reporting on an irregular schedule. I have changed to a 30 Day Moving Average Growth Rate from the previous 7 Day Moving Average Growth Rate. I have also removed the daily state ranking as this has become irrelevant.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.304) with 60,620 cases, West Virginia (0.246) with 633,282 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.188) with 24,460 cases, Montana (0.084) with 325,227 cases, and New York (0.076) with 6,870,527 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 94 of the last 95 days. West Virginia has been in the top states for 416 of the last 507 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 190 of the last 218 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 292 of the last 402 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 84 of the last 113 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00994 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0148. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 37 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 223 of last 360 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 104 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 27, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

Many states have been reporting on an irregular schedule. I have changed to a 30 Day Moving Average Growth Rate from the previous 7 Day Moving Average Growth Rate. I have also removed the daily state ranking as this has become irrelevant.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.304) with 60,620 cases, West Virginia (0.246) with 633,636 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.174) with 24,475 cases, Montana (0.108) with 325,752 cases, and New York (0.077) with 6,873,628 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 95 of the last 96 days. West Virginia has been in the top states for 417 of the last 508 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 191 of the last 219 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 293 of the last 403 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 85 of the last 114 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00730 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00994. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 42 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 224 of last 361 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 104 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 28, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

Many states have been reporting on an irregular schedule. I have changed to a 30 Day Moving Average Growth Rate from the previous 7 Day Moving Average Growth Rate. I have also removed the daily state ranking as this has become irrelevant.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.304) with 60,620 cases, West Virginia (0.227) with 633,636 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.172) with 24,475 cases, Montana (0.108) with 325,752 cases, and New York (0.076) with 6,876,450 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 96 of the last 97 days. West Virginia has been in the top states for 418 of the last 509 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 192 of the last 220 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 294 of the last 404 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 86 of the last 115 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00266 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00730. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 42 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 225 of last 362 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 104 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last two weeks (January 15 to 28, 2023).

The New Case Slope graph was up sightly for the past two weeks but continued in negative range. The Days to Double for the 7 day, 14 day, and 21 day Days to Double were all up for the past two weeks. New Case Count average decreased slightly for the past two weeks. Growth Rate Average decreased slightly for the past two weeks.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 28, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

Many states have been reporting on an irregular schedule. I have changed to a 30 Day Moving Average Growth Rate from the previous 7 Day Moving Average Growth Rate. I have also removed the daily state ranking as this has become irrelevant.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.304) with 60,620 cases, West Virginia (0.213) with 633,636 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.172) with 24,475 cases, Montana (0.089) with 325,752 cases, and New York (0.074) with 6,878,942 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 97 of the last 98 days. West Virginia has been in the top states for 419 of the last 510 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 193 of the last 221 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 295 of the last 405 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 87 of the last 116 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00203 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00266. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 54 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 226 of last 363 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 104 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for January 30, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

Many states have been reporting on an irregular schedule. I have changed to a 30 Day Moving Average Growth Rate from the previous 7 Day Moving Average Growth Rate. I have also removed the daily state ranking as this has become irrelevant.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.373) with 60,761 cases, West Virginia (0.220) with 634,285 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.176) with 24,512 cases, Montana (0.089) with 325,752 cases, and New York (0.077) with 6,883,524 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 98 of the last 99 days. West Virginia has been in the top states for 420 of the last 511 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 194 of the last 222 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 296 of the last 406 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 88 of the last 117 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00449 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00203. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 43 states did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 226 of last 364 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 104 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut