Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 10, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.191) with 61,139 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.149) with 24,886 cases, Montana (0.101) with 332,413 cases, New York (0.078) with 6,998,165 cases, and Wyoming (0.029) with 185,857 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 168 of the last 169 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 264 of the last 292 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 364 of the last 476 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 142 of the last 187 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00211 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.000196. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 49 states and territories did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 278 of last 434 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 106 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 11, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: Guam (0.191) with 61,139 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.149) with 24,886 cases, Montana (0.101) with 332,413 cases, New York (0.078) with 6,998,612 cases, and Wyoming (0.029) with 185,857 cases. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 169 of the last 170 days. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 265 of the last 293 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 365 of the last 477 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 143 of the last 188 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00338 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00211. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 48 states and territories did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 279 of last 435 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 106 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 12, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.152) with 24,898 cases, Montana (0.101) with 332,413 cases, New York (0.078) with 6,999,306 cases, Guam (0.072) with 61,139 cases, and Wyoming (0.029) with 185,857 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 266 of the last 294 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 366 of the last 478 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 144 of the last 189 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 170 of the last 171 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 5 of the last 5 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00746 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00338. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 48 states and territories did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 280 of last 436 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 106 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 13, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.128) with 24,898 cases, Montana (0.101) with 332,413 cases, New York (0.073) with 7,000,578 cases, Guam (0.072) with 61,139 cases, and Wyoming (0.029) with 185,857 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 267 of the last 295 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 367 of the last 479 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 145 of the last 190 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 171 of the last 172 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 6 of the last 6 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00552 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00746. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 45 states and territories did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 280 of last 437 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 106 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 14, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.142) with 24,898 cases, Montana (0.124) with 332,890 cases, New York (0.080) with 7,001,263 cases, Guam (0.072) with 61,139 cases, and Puerto Rico (0.029) with 1,111,422 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 268 of the last 296 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 368 of the last 480 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 146 of the last 191 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 172 of the last 173 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00370 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00552. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 49 states and territories did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 281 of last 438 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 106 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

volvolugnut

I have updated the graphs for the last four weeks (March 12 to April 8, 2023).

The New Case Slope graph was up sightly for the past four weeks and continued in negative range. The Days to Double for the 14 day, and 21 day Days to Double were up for the past four weeks. New Case Count average decreased for the past four weeks. Growth Rate Average decreased for the past four weeks.

These Districts and states have not reported in the last thirty days or more.
District Of Columbia
Florida
Mississippi
New Hampshire
North Dakota
Vermont
Virginia
Washington


Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 15, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.138) with 24,898 cases, Montana (0.124) with 332,890 cases, New York (0.079) with 7,001,823 cases, Guam (0.072) with 61,169 cases, and Wyoming (0.029) with 185,857 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 269 of the last 297 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 369 of the last 481 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 147 of the last 192 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 173 of the last 174 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 7 of the last 8 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00109 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.00370. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 55 states and territories did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 282 of last 439 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 106 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 16, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.128) with 24,898 cases, Montana (0.095) with 332,890 cases, New York (0.077) with 7,002,328 cases, Guam (0.072) with 61,139 cases, and Puerto Rico (0.029) with 1,112,068 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 270 of the last 298 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 370 of the last 482 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 148 of the last 193 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 174 of the last 175 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible. These Districts and states have not reported in the last thirty days or more: District Of Columbia, Florida, Mississippi, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Vermont, Virginia, and
Washington.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00125 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00109. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 55 states and territories did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 283 of last 440 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 106 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 17, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.165) with 24,907 cases, Montana (0.095) with 332,890 cases, New York (0.076) with 7,002,782 cases, Guam (0.072) with 61,139 cases, and Wyoming (0.029) with 185,857 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 271 of the last 299 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 371 of the last 483 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 149 of the last 194 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 175 of the last 176 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 8 of the last 10 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible. These Districts and states have not reported in the last thirty days or more: District Of Columbia, Florida, Mississippi, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Vermont, Virginia, and
Washington.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00210 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00124. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 49 states and territories did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 284 of last 441 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 106 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 18, 2023. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate 30 day average (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.165) with 24,907 cases, Montana (0.095) with 332,890 cases, New York (0.077) with 7,003,320 cases, Guam (0.072) with 61,139 cases, and Wyoming (0.029) with 185,857 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in the top 5 states for 272 of the last 300 days. Montana has been in the top 5 states for 372 of the last 484 days. New York has been in the top 5 states for 150 of the last 195 days. Guam has been in the top 5 states for 176 of the last 177 days. Wyoming has been in the top 5 states for 9 of the last 11 days.

Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible. These Districts and states have not reported in the last thirty days or more: District Of Columbia, Florida, Mississippi, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Vermont, Virginia, and
Washington.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00337 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00210. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 49 states and territories did not report new cases.

Daily active case counts have been falling the last several weeks. There have been 285 of last 442 days with decreasing active case numbers.

There have now been 106 million total cases of Covid-19 in the US. This is 31% of the total US population. Reinfections and under reporting will distort the total number of cases.

With new home tests widely available, new case counts are likely under counting the true number of active cases.


[/quote]
volvolugnut