Coronavirus Thread

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More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 15, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.245) with 108,103 cases, Minnesota (0.222) with 837,765 cases, Connecticut (0.159) with 406,929 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.157) with 7370 cases, and Oklahoma (0.140) with 655,512 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 35 of last 70 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 298 of last 406 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 105 of last 207 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 65 of last 179 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00769 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00263. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 0 states did not report new cases.

For 123 of the last 157 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 30 of last 56 days with decreasing active case numbers. The last 6 days active cases have been up.

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[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 16, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.443) with 848,421 cases, North Dakota (0.257) with 156,114 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.179) with 7380 cases, Arkansas (0.165) with 520,725 cases, and Montana (0.147) with 186,207 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 299 of last 407 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 438 of last 468 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 106 of last 208 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 188 of last 451 days. Montana has been in top 5 list for 34 of last 71 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00943 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00769. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 4 states did not report new cases.

For 124 of the last 158 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 31 of last 57 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 17, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.274) with 7397 cases, North Dakota (0.192) with 156,740 cases, New Hampshire (0.168) with 148,718 cases, Arkansas (0.157) with 521,553 cases, and West Virginia (0.156) with 285,135 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 107 of last 209 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 439 of last 469 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 189 of last 452 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 39 of last 72 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0113 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00943. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 0 states did not report new cases.

Yesterday the growth rate of 0.0113 was the highest since October 1, 2021 when it was 0.0122.

For 125 of the last 159 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 31 of last 58 days with decreasing active case numbers.

Yesterday the new case count of 104,702 was the highest since October 8, 2021 when it was 106,298.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 18, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.380) with 7427 cases, Minnesota (0.217) with 856,524 cases, North Dakota (0.187) with 157,381 cases, Wyoming (0.183) with 109,083 cases, and West Virginia (0.172) with 286,249 cases. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 108 of last 210 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 300 of last 409 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 440 of last 470 days. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 36 of last 73 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 40 of last 73 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0107 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0113. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 5 states did not report new cases.

For 126 of the last 160 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 31 of last 59 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 19, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.213) with 861,717 cases, West Virginia (0.197) with 287,612 cases, North Dakota (0.133) with 157,851 cases, New Hampshire (0.129) with 150,813 cases, and Tennessee (0.123) with 1,303,830 cases. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 301 of last 410 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 41 of last 74 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 441 of last 471 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0121 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0107. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 3 states did not report new cases.

For 127 of the last 161 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 31 of last 60 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 20, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: North Dakota (0.141) with 158,338 cases, Oklahoma (0.112) with 695,585 cases, Arkansas (0.107) with 523,866 cases, West Virginia (0.087) with 288,247 cases, and Pennsylvania (0.064) with 1,680,752 cases. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 442 of last 472 days. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 66 of last 184 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 190 of last 455 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 42 of last 75 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00393 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0121. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 35 states did not report new cases.

For 128 of the last 162 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 31 of last 61 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.


To give some context to these changes, I have calculated the average growth rate for each week back to April. The growth rate is calculated as the number of new cases each day divided by the number of active cases for the previous day. There is a typical weekly pattern of rising cases each week and falling case numbers on the weekends. I have calculated the 7 day average of the growth rate for Saturday to Friday of each week.

Using the 7 day growth rate, a calculation can be made of the number of days for the new cases to double. This calculation uses (1+Growth Rate) to the exponential of 1/X and solved for when this equation equals 2 (doubling of new cases). Variable X is the number of days to double the new cases count. I have made this calculation using 14 day and 21 day growth rate averages as well.

A graph using the average for 7, 14, and 21 days and showing the days to double new case counts for April to middle of November is below. Another graph shows the 7 day average new virus cases counts for the same period.

Inspection of the graphs show that when the line for days to double becomes flat, there may soon be a decline or increase to the count of new cases. This has happened three times since April. When the slope of the line for doubling is steep, either going up or down, there is unlikely to be a change soon in the growth or decline in new cases.

The current lines for case doubling now shows some indication of going flat soon. I expect we will see the number of new virus cases continue to increase, but we may have a change of direction starting. Perhaps the changing recommendations for controlling the virus are beginning to have an impact.

There was an error in my original logic posted on November 14. During the upward slope periods of the Days to Double graph, the actual number of daily cases are declining. I reconsidered how to resolve this contradiction in logic.

I have added a new graph with a calculation of the slope of the new case numbers (current case count minus past case count divided by the number of days). The slope of a curve is the rate of change of the plotted line. If we were plotting velocity, the slope would be the acceleration. The slope is a better representation of the virus growth because the slope goes negative when the trend in cases starts going down.

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I have updated the graphs for the latest week (November 14 to November 20). The New Case Slope graph showed a increase in the past week and continues into the positive range. The Days to Double for the 7, 14, and 21 day count all decreased this week. The 21 day Days to Double line is now at 98 days.

The New Case Slope line looks very similar to the middle of July 2021 when the summer surge was growing.

This week the new case count average increased for the third week and continues the reversal of a downward trend started nine weeks ago. New case average weekly count is now at about the same level as the middle of August 2021 and middle of October 2021.

I hope the trend changes and cases drop again. However, I predict new cases will rise as we reach the holiday season and people gather together indoors. Any bad judgement in this prediction is my own.

Stay safe out there. Don't get careless and keep up your defenses.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 21, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Oklahoma (0.106) with 660,622 cases, West Virginia (0.099) with 288,967 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.075) with 7746 cases, Mississippi (0.073) with 511,538 cases, and North Carolina (0.066) with 1,519,088 cases. Oklahoma has been in top 5 list for 67 of last 185 days. West Virginia has been in top 5 list for 43 of last 76 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 109 of last 213 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00583 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00393. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 20 states did not report new cases.

For 129 of the last 163 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 31 of last 62 days with decreasing active case numbers.

volvolugnut

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for November 22, 2021. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (0.230) with 109,802 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.215) with 7466 cases, Minnesota (0.167) with 866,287 cases, Connecticut (0.131) with 414,978 cases, and New Hampshire (0.079) with 153,934 cases. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 37 of last 77 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 110 of last 214 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 302 of last 413 days.

Alabama, California, District of Columbia, Hawaii, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Nebraska, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin did not report active cases. Several states have stopped posting new case and new death numbers. I will back calculate where possible.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Red highlight states were over 2.0 yesterday. Yellow highlight states were over 1.5 yesterday. This is an early warning of higher growth rate in states. Many of these states did not report the last several days making this measure more variable for those states.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.00791 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.00583. This is not population or case number weighted. Yesterday, 4 states did not report new cases.

For 130 of the last 164 days the growth rate for the US has been above 0.003. This relates to a doubling of new cases in under 230 days.

Daily active case counts have started to decrease the last several weeks. There have been 32 of last 63 days with decreasing active case numbers.

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