Coronavirus Thread

[volvolugnut]

To me New York may have the highest number of positives and highest cases which seems to show about half the tests come back positive. Initially I suppose that meant they were short of tests and by the time you got tested they were pretty sure you had it, but does it still mean that? Are they well equppied now with tests but unable to scale up testing or testing at the rate they think is best ?

Attached below are April 15 results of testing reported by Worldometers.info. This information answers some questions of how many tests have been made and the results. I know there are misrepresentations. In my own state, the state health department website reports only state testing and does not include private labs. I am sure there is other distortions.

Looking at the tables, there is a broad difference between states on tests per million population and in tests per actual virus cases. It appears some states have access to plentiful test and others may limit testing for some reason. I don't have answers to your other questions.

volvolugnut

[Phainein7]

they were short of tests and by the time you got tested they were pretty sure you had it, but does it still mean that?

Initially, only those with "CDC based symptoms" could be tested. Drive-thru testing only has so many tests, and June indicated she had to get "permission" to be tested.

RE: Mass is around 1 in 5 tests positive

This might suggest limited tests, so ye must convince a doc

In one state, Kansas for instance, there are some 14,534 tests negative, and 1,588 positive...about 1 in 9 test positive.

Massachusetts has some 125,000 tested, and some 28,163 cases. Since "Massachusetts has among the most coronavirus cases and fatalities in the United States," this state gets more tests, but they might restrict who gets them.
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No, Dr. Oz Didn't Say Only 2–3% of Children Would Die of Coronavirus If Schools Reopened

Dr. Oz deserves criticism, but he was clumsily referencing a real—and actually encouraging—scientific study.

On his Wednesday night show, Sean Hannity asked what should be done to get the economy going again. Oz replied: "Schools are a very appetizing opportunity. I just saw a nice piece in The Lancet arguing the opening of schools may only cost us 2–3 percent in terms of total mortality. Any life is a life lost but to get every child back into a school where they are safely being educated, being fed, and making the most of their lives, with the theoretical risk on the back side, might be tradeoff some folks would consider."
...
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But Dr. Oz was not describing a death toll in the millions. He said the cost could be "2–3 percent in terms of total mortality," not among all school-aged children or the population at large.

That Lancet article argues that school closures may not be a particularly effective social distancing measure. It cites modeling from Imperial College London that estimates the U.K.'s school closures will reduce overall deaths by about 2–4 percent. In other words, if there are 100,000 COVID-19 deaths despite the schools being closed, having had the schools open anyway would have yielded 2,000–4,000 additional deaths. That's thousands, not millions.
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[June]

It might just be the mom in me, but one child dying should be unacceptable. Much less 2-3%! Especially if it is preventable. As long as it is someone else's child, it's ok? June

[Sveedy]

I just saw that Elizabeth N.J. is deploying drones to peer into citizens backyards etc to find small gatherings. While I understand the well meaning effort, I can't help but think about the precedent that is being set. Something to do with what those with power choose to do with it I guess. Sometimes Government takes advantage of a situation to advance their own goals . Remember that gem called " The Patriot Act " ?
The chains that bind us are forged one link at a time. Lots of moving parts to keep an eye on.

[Phainein7]

...one child dying should be unacceptable.

We accept risks when traveling in/on vehicles, bicycles, motorcycles...playing sports...walking, running...etc/etc/etc. "Lancet article argues that school closures may not be a particularly effective social distancing measure." I would have to read this article and evaluate what was presented.
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COVID-19 Cuts Car Crashes — But What About Crash Rates?
It depends on where you live.
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On medical literature side, cytokine storm may be a significant factor in those who die, and there is a treatment involving blood purification technology. Hearsay suggests it will "require some innovation to make it available to most or all patients, and the medical community is working on that problem."

July 25, 2017 - A nonpharmacologic treatment for cytokine storm currently used in Europe is based on a novel blood purification technology. CytoSorb therapy from CytoSorbents Corp. (Monmouth Junction, NJ) uses biocompatible, porous polymer beads in a hemoperfusion cartridge to adsorb mid-sized inflammatory mediators such as cytokines and toxins from the blood. Whole blood is repeatedly pumped out of the body and through the sorbent cartridge using standard dialysis machines, with purified blood recirculated back to the patient.
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A New Statistic Reveals Why America's COVID-19 Numbers Are Flat

Few figures tell you anything useful about how the coronavirus has
spread through the U.S. Here's one that does.
...
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According to the Tracking Project's figures, nearly one in five people
who get tested for the coronavirus in the United States is found to
have it. In other words, the country has what is called a
"test-positivity rate" of nearly 20 percent.

That is "very high," Jason Andrews, an infectious-disease professor at
Stanford, told us. Such a high test-positivity rate almost certainly
means that the U.S. is not testing everyone who has been infected with
the pathogen, because it implies that doctors are testing only people
with a very high probability of having the infection. People with
milder symptoms, to say nothing of those with none at all, are going
undercounted. Countries that test broadly should encounter far more
people who are not infected than people who are, so their
test-positivity rate should be lower.

The positivity rate is not the same as the proportion of COVID-19
cases in the American population at large, a metric called
"prevalence." Nobody knows the true number of Americans who have been
exposed to or infected with the coronavirus, though attempts to
produce much sharper estimates of that figure through blood testing
are under way. Prevalence is a crucial number for epidemiologists, in
part because it lets them calculate a pathogen's true
infection-fatality rate: the number of people who die after becoming
infected.

[volvolugnut]

More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.

State growth rates for April 16, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Wyoming (1.027 NOT a typo) with 401 cases, South Dakota (0.172) with 1311 cases, Minnesota (0.132) with 1912 cases, North Dakota (0.131) with 393 cases, and Nebraska (0.125) with 1066 cases. Wyoming doubled the number of active cases in one day.

With the new guidelines on using growth trends for decisions when to reopen society, I reviewed the states growth rate trends. I highlighted in orange the states with 4 day rising trend. The states with 3 day rising trends were highlighted in yellow. The states with 3 day dropping trend are highlighted in light green. The states with 4 day dropping trend are highlighted in dark green. I expect the states to interpret this guidance in various ways. My presentation is for information only.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0521 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0555. This is not population or case number weighted.

Stay safe out there. Keep your family close and others at a distance.

volvolugnut

[June]

To argue that driving and a communicable disease somehow correlate is mindboggling... the unfortunately part of the 20th century is the requirement of transportation. It is not possible to walk to school, Dr.,work, or store for most. No more Walnut Grove days like on little house on the prairie. Therefore getting into a vehicle ie. car, subway, bus, or even a train is a fact of life.

On the other hand sending children into a close environment together is a recipe for major transmission. Then those children will bring it home and infect the whole family.

Being as we are on a Volvo enthusiast community, I assume part of owning a Volvo is being safety minded car wise, otherwise you could save a ton and buy a KIA! June

[Phainein7]

...close environment together is a recipe for major transmission..

I fully understand, but when an economic "ship" is sinking, rational people attempt to find solutions which reduce the impact. Restarting now is not a solution. Dr. Oz was acting as an echo chamber, for some conservatives.
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News you can use.

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[June]

Perhaps a side effect if Coronavirus is Alzheimers?! June

[volvolugnut]

To me it is a simple question. People recover from job and income loss. The unfortunate percent who die from the virus will never recover.
This is not a shooting war where military generals decide to sent soldiers to certain death to protect a more valued resource. Protect the health of people, use the governments power and money to keep the economy from collapse and jobs will recover later.
volvolugnut