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volvolugnut
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Re: Coronavirus Thread

Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 25 Oct 2020, 09:01 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for October 25, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Tennessee (0.144) with 247,587 cases, North Dakota (0.134) with 37,719 cases, Minnesota (0.129) with 133,802 cases, Louisiana (0.125) with 179,842 cases, and Vermont (0.117) with 2073 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Tennessee has been in top 5 list for 12 of last 31 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 78 of last 116 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 58 of last 81 days. Louisiana has been in top 5 list for 6 of last 15 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Alaska was over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight).

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0213 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0282. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 26 Oct 2020, 09:34 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for October 26, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Kansas (0.127) with 80,130 cases, Wyoming (0.126) with 11,477 cases, Minnesota (0.122) with 135,372 cases, Connecticut (0.117) with 68,099 cases, and US Virgin Islands (0.100) with 1348 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Wyoming has been in top 5 list for 23 of last 42 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 59 of last 82 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 6 of last 11 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. Connecticut, Kansas, US Military, and Federal Prisons were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Guam and Washington were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight).

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0242 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0213. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut
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Mercedes: 2001 E320, 1973 280, 1974 280C, 1989 300E, 1988 300TE, 1979 300TD, parts cars.
2009 Smart Passion
Ford: 1977 F350, 1964 F150 (2), 1938 Tudor Sedan
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 27 Oct 2020, 07:54 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for October 27, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.172) with 137,536 cases, North Dakota (0.138) with 39,130 cases, US Virgin Islands (0.136) with 1351 cases, New Hampshire (0.134) with 10,531 cases, and Wisconsin (0.128) with 206,311 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 60 of last 83 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 79 of last 118 days. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 7 of last 12 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 28 of last 58 days. Wisconsin has been in top 5 list for 24 of last 53 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Rhode Island and US Virgin Islands were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight).

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0259 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0242. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut
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Mercedes: 2001 E320, 1973 280, 1974 280C, 1989 300E, 1988 300TE, 1979 300TD, parts cars.
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 28 Oct 2020, 08:48 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for October 28, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Kansas (0.153) with 83,214 cases, Minnesota (0.147) with 139,444 cases, North Dakota (0.123) with 39,907 cases, South Dakota (0.114) with 42,000 cases, and New Hampshire (0.103) with 10,641 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 61 of last 84 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 80 of last 119 days. South Dakota has been in top 5 list for 27 of last 68 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 29 of last 59 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Rhode Island and US Virgin Islands were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight). Both of these measures were unchanged from the day before.

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0279 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0259. This is not population or case number weighted.

The number of new cases was 81,581 yesterday. This is the most ever reported and the next highest was 81,210 on October 23, 2020.

volvolugnut
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Mercedes: 2001 E320, 1973 280, 1974 280C, 1989 300E, 1988 300TE, 1979 300TD, parts cars.
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Post by abscate »

This is awful. At least 5 states are near ICU capacity and are still in case growth. This will not end well.
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Post by volvolugnut »

Will it ever end? Today's report coming shortly.
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2009 Smart Passion
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 29 Oct 2020, 12:34 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for October 29, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: Minnesota (0.213) with 142,311 cases, North Dakota (0.196) with 41,130 cases, New Hampshire (0.123) with 10,768 cases, Arkansas (0.115) with 109,712 cases, and Wisconsin (0.112) with 214,996 cases, . All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 62 of last 85 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 81 of last 120 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 30 of last 60 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 35 of last 72 days. Wisconsin has been in top 5 list for 25 of last 55 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. No areas were over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Michigan, Nebraska, and Navajo Nation were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight).

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0310 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0279. This is not population or case number weighted. The growth rate for yesterday was the highest since July 31 when it was 0.0323.

The number of new cases was 91,530 yesterday. This is the most ever reported and the next highest was 81,581 on the day before. The increase was a 12% increase day over day.

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The Fleet:
Volvo: 2001 V70 T5, 1986 244DL, 1983 245DL, 1975 245DL, 1959 PV544, multiple Volvo parts cars.
Mercedes: 2001 E320, 1973 280, 1974 280C, 1989 300E, 1988 300TE, 1979 300TD, parts cars.
2009 Smart Passion
Ford: 1977 F350, 1964 F150 (2), 1938 Tudor Sedan
Farmall tractors: 1956 400 Diesel, 1946 A
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 30 Oct 2020, 09:15 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for October 30, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.429) with 1362 cases, Minnesota (0.204) with 145,465 cases, North Dakota (0.200) with 42,483 cases, Kansas (0.150) with 86,381 cases, and South Dakota (0.125) with 44,559 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 8 of last 15 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 63 of last 86 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 82 of last 121 days. South Dakota has been in top 5 list for 28 of last 70 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. US Virgin Islands was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). Kansas, US Military, and Veterans Affairs were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight).

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0339 for yesterday, up from previous day of 0.0310. This is not population or case number weighted. The growth rate for yesterday was the highest since July 24 when it was 0.0352. If the growth rate were to continue at 0.0339, in three weeks the number of new cases would double.

The number of new cases was 101,461 yesterday. This is the most ever reported and the next highest was 91,530 on the day before. The increase was a 11% increase day over day.

volvolugnut
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Mercedes: 2001 E320, 1973 280, 1974 280C, 1989 300E, 1988 300TE, 1979 300TD, parts cars.
2009 Smart Passion
Ford: 1977 F350, 1964 F150 (2), 1938 Tudor Sedan
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 31 Oct 2020, 07:30 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for the last 5 days. I have sorted the states alphabetically and added growth rates for last several days for all states with ranking of each day. Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.

Again, results change daily.
The mornings are cooler and I may post this information in the morning now (mostly). I try to do outdoor work in the afternoon.

State growth rates for October 31, 2020. All information is based on reported information and actual results may be different.

For your information, the top 5 states or territories yesterday in growth rate (the worst containment) are: US Virgin Islands (0.538) with 1376 cases, North Dakota (0.197) with 43,916 cases, Minnesota (0.168) with 148,472 cases, New Hampshire (0.164) with 11,084 cases, and Arkansas (0.134) with 112,190 cases. All states have reopened to various levels. Many states have now paused or reversed opening actions. US Virgin Islands has been in top 5 list for 9 of last 16 days. North Dakota has been in top 5 list for 83 of last 122 days. Minnesota has been in top 5 list for 64 of last 87 days. New Hampshire has been in top 5 list for 31 of last 62 days. Arkansas has been in top 5 list for 36 of last 74 days.

A column on the right shows the current growth rate divided by the 5 day moving average. US Virgin Islands was over 2.0 yesterday (red highlight). No areas were over 1.5 yesterday (yellow highlight).

My calculated growth rate for USA is 0.0282 for yesterday, down from previous day of 0.0339. This is not population or case number weighted.

volvolugnut
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Mercedes: 2001 E320, 1973 280, 1974 280C, 1989 300E, 1988 300TE, 1979 300TD, parts cars.
2009 Smart Passion
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Post by volvolugnut »

volvolugnut wrote: 01 Nov 2020, 07:16 More statistics on US states and COVID-19 growth rates. My raw information is from Worldometer. Any errors or misrepresentations are my own.

These tables show all available US states and territories and the COVID-19 data for October. I have sorted the states alphabetically . Of course, this information changes daily. I have presented the table in two parts because of the screen shot, but it is actually one table in Excel.
You have likely seen the headlines that new Covid-19 cases are growing rapidly and reaching record numbers. But, what states are they growing the most and how fast? I have looked deeper into my records from Worldometer to find some answers.

I looked at state growth rate 5 day moving averages for October. Comparisons were made of the five day moving average on each Saturday to the five day moving average of October 3. The calculation was new week five day moving average divided by October 3 five day moving average.

I color coded the results. If the weeks change was not over 1.0, the cell was not colored. If the weeks change was 1.0 to 1.25, the cell was colored green. If the weeks change was 1.25 to 1.5, the cell was colored yellow. If the weeks change was 1.5 to 2, the cell was colored orange. If the weeks change was over 2, the cell was colored red.

The fastest growing states (over 2.0) are: US Virgin Islands, Florida, Colorado, Rhode Island, Arizona, Illinois. Most of these states have not been appearing in the daily top 5 lists.

The next group (increased 1.5 to 2.0) are: West Virginia, Georgia, District of Columbia, Michigan, New Mexico, Kansas, Iowa, Maine, Nevada, and Alaska.

States with noted improvement during October are: Hawaii, Guam, Mississippi, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin.

Honorable mention goes to states that have shown progress: South Dakota, Vermont, Nebraska, Montana, and Arkansas.

volvolugnut
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State Rate Chg Oct 110120 A.JPG (180.15 KiB) Viewed 712 times
The Fleet:
Volvo: 2001 V70 T5, 1986 244DL, 1983 245DL, 1975 245DL, 1959 PV544, multiple Volvo parts cars.
Mercedes: 2001 E320, 1973 280, 1974 280C, 1989 300E, 1988 300TE, 1979 300TD, parts cars.
2009 Smart Passion
Ford: 1977 F350, 1964 F150 (2), 1938 Tudor Sedan
Farmall tractors: 1956 400 Diesel, 1946 A
And others.

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